Westminstenders: Neglectful Drunkeness!

[RedToothBrush]

The HoC has spend the past 3 years in a state of Neglectful Drunkeness.

As it stands less then two weeks from Brexit Day, there is no deal we were promised. The Conservative and Labour Parties are more divided than ever.

The government is in disarray as 8 Cabinet ministers plus the chief whip voted against the Prime Minister including the Brexit Secretary who had minutes earlier argued for an extension only to vote against it. He is now on the brink of resignation.

The DUP look like they may be about to capitulate and vote for a deal. But it may not be enough even then.

This is what the cliff edge looks like.

Who wants to take a closer look?

Leavers and Leaver-rags getting het up about Bercow just don't get it. Whilst his decision may be a route to "frustrating The Will" I think it is also at present a route to crashing out with No Deal on the 29th. Where we seem to be now is maximum uncertainty (yet again). So whilst the former outcome is a treasonous travesty against the Great People of Brexitannia, the latter outcome is apparently the most patriotic Wondrous Source of Greatness of Brexitannia - and as both are now increased in likelihood, there's not yet a need for Leavers to get aerated.

One wonders what Arleene must be thinking at this moment in time....love to be a fly on the wall wherever May is hiding?

Much Ado About (nearly) Nothing
It's just an extra vote to change the Standing Order:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/18/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-vote-deal-boris-johnson-tells-may-to-try-again-to-get-eu-to-change-backstop-politics-live

"Alex Burghart, a Conservative, asks if the house can suspend the standing orders preventing a motion being brought back for a repeat vote.

Bercow says the house is the custodian of its own standing orders, and so the answer is yes."

Do you seriously believe that Speaker Bercow is honestly serving the interests of “no deal” Brexiteers? I call BS on that.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Tory Brexiteers threaten to go on "vote strike" and paralyse the Government if Theresa May delays Brexit by a year

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8666568/tory-brexiteers-strike-theresa-may-brexit-delay/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Hardline Tory Brexiteers threaten to go on strike if Theresa May carries out vow to delay Brexit by a year
Some 20 ERG members have told whips they will carry out 'vote strikes' — a move that would push Mrs May’s minority Government to the verge of collapse

Do you seriously believe that Speaker Bercow is honestly serving the interests of “no deal” Brexiteers? I call BS on that.

I don't think the actions of Bercow help anyone in particular today. They most negatively impact on moderates and compromisers. Not Hardline Remainers and Brexiteers.

It remains to be seen whether this decision is a positive or negative for all groups.

No one can say realistic what outcome is now most likely. So Bercow’s intervention might yet go very much against remainers

Do you seriously believe that Speaker Bercow is honestly serving the interests of “no deal” Brexiteers? I call BS on that.

Do you deny that this decision has increased uncertainty in either direction? Thus at present your dream outcome of No Deal glory bestriding the globe as an increased likelihood just as much as my dream outcome of pulling the plug on this fucking shitshow.

Me personally, I'm at today's developments and not necessarily in a celebratory way at all, because my greater concern is avoiding the very No Deal that you desire, and it has become more likely for now.

Is the real problem that he's one of the Unfaithful and not pure of Brexitatious soul?

Bercow has damaged the WA, increased the likelihood of a no deal and also raised the chances of a long delay to Brexit, who knows to what end result.
But there have been plenty of chances for the Hoc to support the WA and they have rejected them all.
This isn't a mess of Bercow's making.

Bercow raised the stakes an made the choices starker:

The likelihood of No Deal has increased - it is the most likely outcome
and so has the channce of a PV
So has the chance of an eventual Remain - but it is still very unlikely

He also told the HoC how to achieve MV3 if they want:
Vote to change Standing Orders - it should be easy to draft this modification & vote for it, with a few hours work.

Firstly, “no deal” is not my dream. I’ve never advocated for it on here or anywhere else.

I suppose this situation could make “no deal” more likely, but as above, that isn’t an outcome I see as desirable. I’m pretty sure that’s not what Speaker Bercow wants either.

Instead, I think it is much more likely that the Speaker, through application of his interpretation of the Commons rules is attempting to prevent a meaningful Brexit from happening.

It follows from this that I think that any suggestion that he is being even handed and frustrating remainers and leavers equally, is dishonest and wrong.

The EU v quickly found another way to help WA Brexit:
by agreeing to offer new delayed Brexit date at this week’s summit
They'll keep it on offer until shortly before 11 pm on 29 March.

Jessica Elgot**@jessicaelgot

EU officials tell @DanielBoffey and @JenniferMerode they believe issuing a summit communique with legal force, known as council conclusions, containing a new date of exit could be sufficient for another vote on the deal to be held

Bercow is keeping to the rules
He would be clearly breaking a Standing Order if he allowed another vote

He told MPs how to change the SO - just vote to do so

If the HoC can't even organise that, then there is little hope they'll organise to overcome the 149 loss in MV2

Dr Liam Fox @ liamfox
BREAKING: Our negotiators have just initialled a trade agreement with Iceland & Norway for the European Economic Area. This is the 2nd biggest agreement we're rolling over and trade with EEA is worth nearly £30bn. This is on top of the agreement we’ve signed with Liechtenstein.

Except that’s only in the case of no deal:

Norwegian media reports that the agreement of today only covers tariffs in the event of no deal. That is very far from a roll-over of the current EEA arrangement, which includes services, capital, non-tariff barriers etc.

What is a meaningful Brexit in the first place? According to particular factions of Leavers, including a great many on MN, nothing short of a No Deal crash out on March 29 counts as the real thing. May’s Deal has been derided here as “practically Remain” and “betrayal”.

I personally did not suggest any particular even-handed motivation to Bercow’s decision today - merely that the current upshot is an increased likelihood of either extreme. The road to heaven (No Deal Now) can be paved with bad intentions (the presumably unintended consequences of an UnBeLeaver’s actions), as it were.

PMK

I posted Nicola's letter to the PM this afternoon - but it probably got lost in all the outrage discussion about Bercow

Went to an interesting talk this evening about how to "re-frame" political campaigns (with particular reference to Indyref ). One of the things that was suggested was to stop referring to the "BBC" as the "BBC" - but to always call it "the state broadcaster".

It was also pointed out that you can't win arguments with pesky facts - due to a combination of the backfire effect (which we've talked about before on these threads) and the "fight, flight and paralysis " inbuilt reaction in everyone. People react emotionally and you need to let them come to their own conclusions. Step back from the "killer" argument however tempting it might be as it might cause a "just about" ready-to-be-converted to re-trench. Let them make the final conclusions themselves.

Triage the potential contacts: no point wasting spending time with those that or already converted (we're guilty of that on these threads ), nor any time on those that will never be converted just disengage and concentrate on those that are open to discussion and making choices (there was mention of "progressive parents" which lost me a bit )

Books that were recommended were "Don't Think of an Elephant" (mostly about Republicans/Democrats but applicable here too), "The Righteous Mind" , which was particularly recommended, and "Out of the Wreckage" (George Monbiot who I find a bit of a curate's egg but I'll check out the reviews)

One of the things that was really emphasised was not to repeat a negative establishment "frame" (a lot of Theresa May's statement would come in this category, the £350 million on a bus is another one) because, even if it's a lie, people remember the lie/the negative and all you're doing is giving it the oxygen of publicity.

So from an EU perspective, rather than concentrating on "we only send £x million, not £350 million", we should concentrating on the message of the value we get from the EU.

An example of different mindset/values that was given was that the Irish are proud of the fact that they are now net contributors to the EU as it proves how far they have come and how much they have developed, thanks to the EU , since they joined.

With Brexit approaching UK's voice in Brussels grows quiet

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/18/with-brexit-approaching-uks-voice-in-brussels-grows-quiet

Officials are now thinking hard about how to preserve British influence, when there is no British voice or vote in the room.

I read the NS letter, pretty
Far too reasonable to be heard in these times
May will bin it without reading

10 days 😩

The queen better bloody not die in the next few days!

Actual lol at the fanfic, Sostenueto :)

Oh god, Frogfish, can you imagine? I discovered the concept of the banter timeline this afternoon - that would really top it all off.

Anyone else think Javid will be shoved to the fore to counter islamaphobia? I was thinking he'd be up against Boris/Gove/Raab. Still not convinced Raab has a chance after failing basic geography. Gove seems to be getting more kudos in Env than he has anywhere else. Not sure even the Tories trust BoJo anymore...

As I said before, anyone who thinks Cummings is a hero certainly doesn't understand what he has done to this country - purely from needing to be seen as the brightest in the room. He is the antithesis of patriotic. Self serving and self aggrandising. My only solace is he now has offspring who will be trapped in his legacy, as will mine, and no one wants to be tarnished with his 'genius' now they've seen where it ends up.

Why am I not surprised that leavers are taking affront to the democratic process of our own country and Bercrow? Why am I also not surprised the EU's kind offer is ignored on the front pages in preference of baying for Bercrow's blood?

Am very hopeful this is some machiavellian plot to get WA through as suggested, however I am not sure the current shower are capable of forward planning (see "we'll vote on that next week" as today's best example).

I imagine EU will hoover up NI and Scotland before the end of the 2020's.

Still want to know how the tax laws are implemented. I'd love to see any extension be cause for ERG mass arrest for tax evasion headlines . I know we likely have to enforce it ourselves, but I am willing to bet they've angered enough people in the right places...

Rubbish night tonight. Keep waking up. This is the most anxious I've been over this I think as time is running out and we still don't know what will happen. I'm dreaming about it all ffs. How on earth has this clusterfuck been allowed to happen?