Westminstenders: Neglectful Drunkeness!

[RedToothBrush]

The HoC has spend the past 3 years in a state of Neglectful Drunkeness.

As it stands less then two weeks from Brexit Day, there is no deal we were promised. The Conservative and Labour Parties are more divided than ever.

The government is in disarray as 8 Cabinet ministers plus the chief whip voted against the Prime Minister including the Brexit Secretary who had minutes earlier argued for an extension only to vote against it. He is now on the brink of resignation.

The DUP look like they may be about to capitulate and vote for a deal. But it may not be enough even then.

This is what the cliff edge looks like.

Who wants to take a closer look?

So which red line will she offer up in sacrifice? Customs Union?

can not resubmit substantially the same proposition that was rejected

what now then?

Well! Berkow said substantially different. One red line removed may not be enough. and suggesting they change the name of the WA won't wash I dont think but what do I know!

I'd think she will make a statement as to what they do next shortly. They'll be having a meeting about the decision ASAP, I'd think.

So no MV3 then....straight to a request for a longer term extension then?

So, we now have a flow chart with two endings ....

• Revoke
• Crash out in 11 days

See y'all next Saturday

Curious news like that doesn't get a flash of honour on the BBC news site ...

Well, they've been terribly slow off the mark recently re Brexit. Can't think why. 🤔🤔🤔

TM is against no deal, against revoke, can't bring the deal back without change so either she'll try to get more time and try (for the millionth time) to get something else from the EU at the upcoming EUCO

Then when she can't ask for a long extension for ???

That's the bit I don't know...for a PV? For a GE? Who knows?

She'll have to come up with options soon! It looks like her red lines may have to give. Or she revokes.

Curious news like that doesn't get a flash of honour on the BBC news site ...

Exactly what I was thinking!

Would have been farcical to have the vote on substantially the same motion. But farcical seems to be leading the way right now.

Sick of the sight of Tory mps queueing up to tell bbc and sky news saying they're actively looking forward to no deal.

Mark Francois now trying to get the Speaker to rule out the Cooper-Boles-Benn amendment coming back again.

Speaker hasn't ruled it out but has said he would have to take into account whether the amendment was the same/substantially the same.

Surely, if TM can ask for a third vote on the same deal from the Commons, she can ask for a second vote from "The People". No?

As I understand, she can't get something new from the EU this week. Would Bercow consider it substantially different, if it is the same WA, plus a bung to the DUP?

This is quite the cat among the pigeons. May will be furious. This rules out, I think, a short technical extension. She needs the approval on that by Thursday, and she can't get it. Has to go long, or revoke (never going to happen)

This must put a PV vote in jeopardy - except there was MVI and II so surely there could be PVI and II?

So, we now have a flow chart with two endings

No

1. Revoke
2. Long for a long extension with EU to hold PV
3. 'Accidental' No Deal
4. See below - Make the motion different somehow
5. See below - End the parliamentary session and start another (certainly possible with an extension, short or long, but not before 29th March)
6. Some other fudge I'm not aware of.

Nikki da Costa @ nmdacosta
So unless EU give something further or there are new docs no MV3. Ways round Bercow ruling: “notwithstanding” motion, use second reading of WAB, end session and start a new. All high stakes.

More here from last week | via @telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/14/john-bercow-seizing-moment-decisively-kill-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Is John Bercow seizing his moment to decisively kill off Brexit?

Sorry to burst the bubble of making it sound simpler than it is.

Or a general election? I don't know if TM is pigheaded and tin eared enough to do a GE with WA on manifesto so she can do MV111 in a new parliament. I can't see how that would work but I wonder if she will try it.

Or MV111 with PV attached. Would that be a significant enough change? It would serve the ERG right. They've had two chances to vote through brexit.

Upcoming urgent question requested this morning to the Speaker apparently where he is implying they may use this to outline next steps

No idea of timing...

Surely, if TM can ask for a third vote on the same deal from the Commons, she can ask for a second vote from "The People". No?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Henry Newman @ henrynewman
Isn't an extension something new?

Very arguably it is.

As I understand, she can't get something new from the EU this week. Would Bercow consider it substantially different, if it is the same WA, plus a bung to the DUP?

^ No, the WA is the same with bung or no bung

WA with PV would be substantially different IMO.

WA with PV would be substantially different IMO.

Agree.

Or a general election? I don't know if TM is pigheaded and tin eared enough to do a GE with WA on manifesto so she can do MV111 in a new parliament. I can't see how that would work but I wonder if she will try it.

We may have crashed out by then. Still seems a lot of people expecting the EU to simply roll over and dish up whatever the UK wants. Which - I suspect - is a long way from what the reality is.

Apart from the nitty-gritty preparations at ports and customs, is there anything fundamental that the EU needs before 29th ?

Benn is checking this point now...

Preliminary off the top of his head...a demonstrable change to the proposition would be required.

A change in an opinion about the WA wouldn't be the same as a change to the WA. For something to be different...it has to be fundamentally different in terms of substance.