Westminstenders: And I neeeedddd moreeeee timeeeeee!

[RedToothBrush]

We need Time!
Its the one thing we don't have.

Todays vote is on extending a50.

To the displeasure of leavers, Bercow has selected amendments:

e) Corbyn Amendment
demands the government should “provide parliamentary time for this house to find a majority for a different approach”.

h) Wollaston Amendment
cross party amendment requesting to extend to allow the ability to legislate for a PV

i) Benn Amendment
cross party backbenchers take over parliamentary time from 20th March to find a majority way forward which gives justification for an extension

j) Bryant Amendment
prevents meaningful vote III

After yesterday's vote, May is left with effectively four options:

1) Pass the WA and go for a short technical extension.
An extension would have numbers in the HoC, but passing the WA is a struggle and it's reliant on the EU granting extension which is probably viable in this circumstances.

2) Be defeated getting the WA through and be forced into asking for a long extension as a result. This would include EP elections.
This option is politically toxic to the tories and its unlikely a long extension would pass the HoC. The EU would still need a justification for a long extension - a PV would be the natural option - but not clear if that could pass the HoC. Ditto passing legislation for EP elections. Whole scenario is unlikely

3) Be forced to revoke
Tory party big red button of self destruct

4) Actively decide to pursue an illegal no deal Brexit
Let's not think of the ramification

Going through this at speed, my initial reactions to this are:

If e) passes it doesn't really make much difference to May's choices here, but Labour might have more say.

If h) passes it might make 2) more likely

If i) passes it might open up alternative options

If j) passes we might have a real issue if its the only amendment that passes - it would leave a straight choice of Revoke or No Deal UNLESS i) passes as well.

But there might be other things that are not hitting me right in the face now.

As it stands, Hard Line Brexiteers were earlier today making noises that they would now support the WA - including whispers that this would include the DUP who would be likely to set off a chain reaction of support.

However which (if any) amendments pass today could well affect whether thats even a possibility.

As a result this vote needs to carry the health warning 'Be Careful what you wish for'. What you would LIKE might be extremely high risk and might jeapordise the main vote and the chances of an extension at all.

So whilst Leavers might be unhappy about the choices, it might well ultimately work best for No Dealers. Or it could be a gift for Remainers. Bercow's selections are not necessarily biased for this reason. He does not know the outcome here. If anything it looks like he's actually trying to put more options on the table for the house, rather than allow May to dictate to the house. Which is exactly what he should be doing. He's given parliament the power.

I suspect we will not fully understand what is going on tonight EVEN MORE than last night. And it will take a short while for everyone to calibrate what the eventual result actually is going to mean.

THIS is the most important vote yet. And it has the potential its going to end up m-e-s-s-y.

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

The EU is focusing down on its choices for #Article50 extension

• but that could create a serious potential for a 'no deal' cliff-edge at end of June. Bare with me. 1/

The EU says it will be "legally unstable" if UK doesn't hold elections/have MEPs.

So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23.
That means legislating in UK in April.

This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2

It could also mean that IF May opts for short extension (to June 30) and we go past that April deadline,
then May 23 elctions without participating, then there is NO WAY BACK. Eeek.

Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3

So imagine this.

May wins MV3, with reluctant ERG votes, by a small margin.
Asks for June 30 extension for paperwork to be completed.

Then the ERG revokes support..../4

The UK has not held EU elections.
Therefore, at end of June 30....it's "sorry, we cannot render the EU unstable"...it's No Deal.

Mmmmm....this is when I start to wonder. How much of this is kidology? /5

Because if the EU is really sticking to this,
then even revoking on June 30 is not possible (even tho ECJ gives us that unilateral right).

This is why I am told MichelBarnier was urging EU ambos tonight not to grant a short extension beyond May 23 /6
< he knows how untrustworthy AND unstable British politics is >

Which makes me wonder, if the UK did want to revoke/seek longer extension and went to leaders and said,
'sorry, we sincerely meant to leave but these ERG types have bogged it all up"....

would they really stand by and let the bus go off the cliff? /7

OR would they - if the UK agreed expeditiously to hold elections and we presented clear reason (election, 2nd ref etc) say
'OK, as long as u hold elections

No certainty, but there is a certain amount of posturing going on here. /8

I understand some larger MS (including Germany) were arguing for some flexibility tonight
for the reasons stated above.

Tho a second source says it was the "least favoured" option (a flextension)..../9

But in summary, the EU needs to think hard before boxing itself into a cul-de-sac.
< and the UK should have thought hard a long time ago >

Elenade Wanting to retain the DM was the founding morivation for the AfD

• which was then not far right, just a small group of respectable middle class professionals

Ironically, noone now cares about the DM - and the AfD long ago switched to being a far right Islamophobic party.

I have no particular attachment to the pound - money’s just currency - a means to an end. I don’t really understand some people’s feelings against the euro.

Also when travelling, you lose a bit of money every time you convert euros to pounds or vice versa, in commission/ exchange rate. It’s always bugged me that someone is profiting out of me having to change cash into other currencies.

I suspect that 1-2 years in transition will change this view when the companies that are leaving will have gone and something approaches reality strikes

Sorry but I don't think reality will
ever strike for many. MPs and many of the electorate already are saying business aren't closing because of Brexit - Oh No - they'd have closed anyway. Car manufacturing would have declined here anyway. The aeronautical engineering industry would have left anyway. The pound would have plummeted anyway. The NHS would have been privatised anyway, it's a world recession blah blah blah.

Many in the Leave camp will never take responsibility for what has been done.

Didn’t understand all the ramifications in the Foster thread, but I think I get this:

-Even if we extend to July 1st, we can’t revoke after 23rd May if we haven’t held EU elections.

Is that right? The legally-won right to revoke would be removed after that. So an extension only extends the right to revoke from March 29th for 8 weeks. And wipes out the chance to extend further after 1st July if we’re still not ready. (Unless they find a legal way round that.)

UNLESS we have EU elections.
Seems like we should then. Just to keep our options open.

Apols if already posted and I missed it - twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1106676449346547712

I'm hoping it's satire but if it's true, does Jeremy Corbyn not have the slightest inkling of what it means if the WA goes through i.e. it's done and dusted? Or maybe he just cynically wants a few news stories to spread the idea he does back a PV when he does nothing of the sort, similar to the public abstention on the PV immediately followed by Corbyn standing up and saying he wanted one. Machiavellian manipulation or medical intervention needed?

Our problem is that there hasn't been a large swing to Remain, not enough for MPs to feel enough political pressure to override a referendum

In the case of the Tories, their voters are over 70% Leave and party members about 90%,
so voting Revoke, or even to extend, risks a career-ending deselection for Tories

• and they are the ones in govt atm.

The EU was talking about a new UK generation joining in 10-20 years
That's worst case

Best case if the WA is passed is that it gives time for the drift to Remain to grow sufficiently, especially as we'll almost certainly extend transition

• AND for Corbyn to retire, because he is the big stumbling block.

Without him, Labour could have stoked up the feeling for Remain by now. He keeps pushing it down as hard as he can.

I have no particular attachment to the pound - money’s just currency - a means to an end

I used to have a sentimental attachment to sterling - the thought of the old larger bronze type pennies in my Grandma's button box. Then the thought of one pound in weight of coins stretching back to the 8th century .... the Anglo-Saxon real silver pennies.

Now, if loss of Sterling were the price of rejoining ( which it wouldn't be) I would vote to pay that price. It would be like part of our nemesis.

Our post empire hubristic arrogant superiority nonsense contributed to this mess. If part of our punishment on the path to realistic humility were loss of the falling Pound - so be it.

It's actually a small price to pay.

lonelyplanetmum
I wasn't suggesting that it will be a massive 'pro Europe' swing, but if you think of the industry that is on the way out they represent possibly a couple of million people losing their jobs soon or scheduled within 4 years. No sign of 'new' industry taking it's place as tariffs will hinder activities that need materials and the 'brain drain' for larger potential employers to Europe or even India or China etc.
The UK is busy saying what it doesn't want but not presenting any ideas of what is does and even fewer ideas about how to get there.

BCF
That 'Room document' was dated March 15 2018, it is either a year old, or it's author is in a time warp.

If the value of the Pound fell below that of the Euro, then I imagine we would be clamouring to join the Euro.

Agree LeClerc that UK is busy saying what it doesn't want but not presenting any ideas of what is does. Also agree with Peregrina about clamouring to join other currencies.

I expect Venezuela would happily take anything perhaps the Cuban peso since I read it's inflation, as of February, is running at a mind boggling 2.3 million percent. There but for the grace of...

So far though leavers don't see that sterling would crash if we left with No Deal.

It's against all of my better instincts but IMO we need to crash out to have an effect. If things carry on as normal and we gradually dwindle rather than a sudden shock it will be too unrelatable to the vote. I know a lot of the resultant damage will be passed off regardless, but an extension and WA both allow for us to slip into these issues. Leaver friend said to me yesterday that it simply won't affect her either way. When I pointed out cost increases she said "oh but we knew about them and thought it was worth it, plus it will only be for a couple of months until they sort out new deals". So the general view is that this simply isn't that important and won't have long term impacts - because they are not being explained in the general media.

leclerc I assumed the 2018 was a typo, since the FT had its story at midnight

(Even if it isn't, the legal background hasn't changed)

It's against all of my better instincts but IMO we need to crash out to have an effect.

Even a crash out won't teach a lesson. Nothing will. The last two years of Tory meltdown haven't really started to teach a lesson. We have a literally contemptuous government but they're increasing their lead in the polls.

As I said upthread people and MPs will still assert businesses aren't closing because of Crash out - Oh No - they'd have closed anyway. Car manufacturing would have declined anyway. The aeronautical engineering industry would have left anyway. The pound would have plummeted anyway.

It's like letting a nagging child drink Coca Cola and eat haribos five times a day. If their teeth go black and drop out - they'd still claim that could have happened anyway.

That's too ruthless for me, Lonelytired
Crashing out brings terrible problems, which I don't think we have the right to risk for others.
Main ones imo:

• Not being able to get essential meds - even though I rate that as 30% chance after No Deal, still far too high for those who depend on them.
  Or whose kids do.

• The far right seizing the opportunity, as in the collapse of Weimar
  FPTP blocks a party that might get 10%, but could give power to a party on 30%
  and then there is the massive civil disorder of a country in economic meltdown

• The economy going over the point of no return - doing an Argentina in permanently losing 1st world status, because the damge is too great to repair.

Things political and economic can change unexpectedly in a very short time - look at the financial crisis of 2007/8. A world recession has been predicted for some time now (which in itself is probably a preventative). Anything that precipitates untoward economic effects in this country should be avoided as it would render us particularly vulnerable in such a situation. For that reason alone (there are many more) a no deal is to be avoided.
I’m no fan of May, but I hope the WA eventually passes.

The latest Survation polling looks interesting:
Lab 39% (+3%)
Con 35% (-5%)
Lib Dem 10% (-)
UKIP 5% (-)

I know it would be terrible for many, some of whom didn't vote Leave.

I just think if there is no negative reaction we are venturing further down the far right path with no consequences. This is a turning point where people could wake up and suffer a little bit suddenly, rather than us facing war in a decade because they have completely taken over.

Some economists are predicting a global recession within the next couple of year

Crashing the former #5 economy in the world could trigger that early, turning that possibility into a certainty

and the UK, having lost almost all its trade deals, agencies etc and with business & capital fleeing, would be in a dreadful position to weather a global recession

Apparently there’s a Leave March setting off from Sunderland today. The plan is for it to arrive in London on March 29th.

I can’t wait to see how many marchers they have every day. I’m guessing they will average less than a dozen a day.

BBC say 100 marchers turned up........

Violet That might discourage the ERG from risking forcing May into a GE - if the next coupld of polls show similar results
BUT
it would also make Corbyn seize on forcing a GE above all else and abandoning his pretence of support for a PV

It's interesting isn't it. I don't think hardship or even loss of other's lives would teach a lesson for many. I really don't know what would??? A completely privatised NHS perhaps?

Even immense political xxxx up does not really teach lessons -see the Britain elects current voting intention tracker which puts the Cons on 39% (and rising) and Lab on 35% and declining.

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

100 marchers 😂😂
Farage is improving from 3 drunks - including him - and a bewildered dog