Westminstenders: And I neeeedddd moreeeee timeeeeee!

[RedToothBrush]

We need Time!
Its the one thing we don't have.

Todays vote is on extending a50.

To the displeasure of leavers, Bercow has selected amendments:

e) Corbyn Amendment
demands the government should “provide parliamentary time for this house to find a majority for a different approach”.

h) Wollaston Amendment
cross party amendment requesting to extend to allow the ability to legislate for a PV

i) Benn Amendment
cross party backbenchers take over parliamentary time from 20th March to find a majority way forward which gives justification for an extension

j) Bryant Amendment
prevents meaningful vote III

After yesterday's vote, May is left with effectively four options:

1) Pass the WA and go for a short technical extension.
An extension would have numbers in the HoC, but passing the WA is a struggle and it's reliant on the EU granting extension which is probably viable in this circumstances.

2) Be defeated getting the WA through and be forced into asking for a long extension as a result. This would include EP elections.
This option is politically toxic to the tories and its unlikely a long extension would pass the HoC. The EU would still need a justification for a long extension - a PV would be the natural option - but not clear if that could pass the HoC. Ditto passing legislation for EP elections. Whole scenario is unlikely

3) Be forced to revoke
Tory party big red button of self destruct

4) Actively decide to pursue an illegal no deal Brexit
Let's not think of the ramification

Going through this at speed, my initial reactions to this are:

If e) passes it doesn't really make much difference to May's choices here, but Labour might have more say.

If h) passes it might make 2) more likely

If i) passes it might open up alternative options

If j) passes we might have a real issue if its the only amendment that passes - it would leave a straight choice of Revoke or No Deal UNLESS i) passes as well.

But there might be other things that are not hitting me right in the face now.

As it stands, Hard Line Brexiteers were earlier today making noises that they would now support the WA - including whispers that this would include the DUP who would be likely to set off a chain reaction of support.

However which (if any) amendments pass today could well affect whether thats even a possibility.

As a result this vote needs to carry the health warning 'Be Careful what you wish for'. What you would LIKE might be extremely high risk and might jeapordise the main vote and the chances of an extension at all.

So whilst Leavers might be unhappy about the choices, it might well ultimately work best for No Dealers. Or it could be a gift for Remainers. Bercow's selections are not necessarily biased for this reason. He does not know the outcome here. If anything it looks like he's actually trying to put more options on the table for the house, rather than allow May to dictate to the house. Which is exactly what he should be doing. He's given parliament the power.

I suspect we will not fully understand what is going on tonight EVEN MORE than last night. And it will take a short while for everyone to calibrate what the eventual result actually is going to mean.

THIS is the most important vote yet. And it has the potential its going to end up m-e-s-s-y.

We’ve already got a cracking deal 😢

I know that. But if they're hell bent on following 'the will of the people' then having someone who actually likes the EU as a negotiator will probably assist in oiling wheels etc.

It would be fun if the UK ended up becoming a Schengen country together with Ireland as part of the leaving deal.
It would be a great solution for the border.

When's the campaign for hard remain starting?

When's the campaign for hard remain starting?

Quite. With the odd brilliant exception, these lily livered, snivelling, career boosting, ass licking MPs are putting self above their own children's future.

Red - as soon as we crash out. Although then it would be hard rejoin.
Ralistically if May gets her WA through this time, and then there follows 3 or so years of utterly tedious negotiations when non of us know whether we are coming or going, that's probably when it would really start.

Daniel Boffey
@DanielBoffey
NEW: Eu ambassadors have been told this evening that there is nothing in article 50 to prevent there being multiple extensions 1/

But that if the UK has not held European elections by 23 May then they will not be able to extend again beyond 1 July 2/

The European council cannot attach conditions to an extension of article 50
3/

f the UK was a member state beyond 1 July, and it had not held elections for the European parliament, the EU's institutions would risk being paralysed 4/

With regard to legal gerrymandering to avoid MEPs being elected, the ambassadors were informed that in reality this would require treaty change which would take at least two years to do. /5

When's the campaign for hard remain starting?

I seriously think that tactically this would help to reach a compromise closer to what we had before and a better understanding of it.

So Yes to campaigning for Schengen, yes to consideration of joining the Euro too. As I've suggested before a panel of experienced EU consultants sitting at Westminster to advise on wider policy matters such as pensions, health, education, planning, local government (all those things that we dealt with exclusively before). All this would be a good start to errr compromising at having a successful trading bloc with a very limited regulatory remit.

I'm giving up on getting any common sense out of England and when we leave will start supporting a hard remain for Scotland. The Eu treats Ireland a great deal better than Scotland has been treated.

So, if the UK doesn't hold EU elections, all that has been achieved is that the cliff edge has been shifted to the end of June, unless MV3 or MV4 is passed - with even less of a safety net (flimsy as it is and reliant on the goodwill of the E27).

If the EU can't impose conditions during extension, yet the UK retains the right to revoke, but without having sorted out EU elections, then UKIP would have achieved its objective to de-legitimise the EU Parliament

What a fuck-up.

.

There was a message I missed out on that thread

"No extension should be granted beyond 1 July unless the European parliament electios are held at the mandatory date" /6

Delighted at the news that Timothy 'knobhead' Spoons' profits are down by nearly 20%. Warms the cockles.

Are they??

Bloody marvellous :)

I gathered that one EweSurname - but what happens if the UK gets an extension to end June but, because it still hasn't got its fuck sorted managed to get agreement in the HoC, decides it will revoke?

Because the UK Government is being so venal, the only sensible approach would be for the E27 to agree an extension to 26 May at most - but that still means a cliff edge, as if the UK has not put on place the facility for elections, then there can be no extension beyond that.

When's the campaign for hard remain starting?
DH says he's up for that

We'd only get a short extension ('technical') to the end of June if the WA is agreed and it's for legislative purposes.

If we were going to need to fuck about for two more years have a second ref etc, we'd ask for the longer extension ('bollocks').

However, to get a longer extension, EU27 will need a bloody good reason for it, i.e. GE / 2nd ref / death of integral player etc. They won't give it if they suspect we'll faff about ad infinitum.

So, if WA fails to pass, they're gonna need to come up with Plan Z pretty quickly (like straight away) in order to get a 'bollocks' extension.

I would anticipate some interesting amendments to be noted on prior to the WA on Tuesday regarding direction if it fails, such as second ref, revoke, no revoke etc.

Voted, not noted, clearly.

nope, still not any clearer on what the govt or indeed HM opposition or the brexiteers actually want. I know what I want, and what most remainers want - which is revoke. Why does no one have the balls to do it, and say: look, we dont actually know what we want, so if you'll have us we'll stay as we were until we come up with a plan. That seems quite straightforward to me, not closing any doors on anything, but it is perhaps naive of me to think that would be the best way forward. sigh.

So there isnt really much movement on Brexit now until the next MV next week is there?

If so thats awesome and I can instead get some work done focus on other things for a few days!

Looks like no extension would be the safest way for the EU to prevent problems with EP elections.

I just cannot see why the EU would grant an extension.
THe evidence is written in sharpie that the UK HoC does not know what it wants
Poll after Poll after Poll shows that the electorate is as divided as ever
therefore what would any extension achieve ?

Sadly a hard Brexit and the shower of shit associated with it would call the bluff of lots of people (on the left and right)
and thus allow the middle to grovel back in to the EU

Ireland is lobbying hard for an extension.

Which is why I'm saying they'll only grant a long extension for a specific purpose, not for more unspecified buggering about.

If WA passes, of course they'll grant the technical extension.

It’s behind a paywall

Theresa May is 'finished' and must 'fall on her sword' as price for her Brexit deal to win meaningful vote – senior aides

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/15/theresa-may-finished-must-set-timetable-departure-save-brexit/

Senior aides of Theresa May privately believe she is "finished" and may be forced to set out a timetable for her departure if she is to win the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal.

The Telegraph understands that two senior Downing Street figures believe that the Prime Minister should "fall on her sword" and announce she will quit to ensure she is able to "go with dignity".

They believe she has permanently "lost the trust of Eurosceptics" and will have to make way for a new leader after the Conservative Party conference in October.