Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

[RedToothBrush]

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

How can she keep going for votes in her deal hoping for a different answer, yet going for another referendum/people’s vote would be undemocratic?!

So I'm guessing that a short extension will be passed by the vote tomorrow but not a long extension. The numbers for a short one are there but not for a long one.

I agree. Although it’s somewhat irrelevant as it’s the EU vote that counts.

BoreOfWhabylon

I read he looks like ejaculated dust which is equally valid.

Remember Gordon Brown "chaining himself to the radiator" according to right-wing rags?

Erskine May [HoC "bible"] says on repeat votes:

Looks like Bercow has discretion, but we must wait for the constitutional experts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-no-deal-vote-commons-repeat-parliament-jeremy-corbyn-a8714241.html

“A motion or an amendment which is the same, in substance, as a question which has been decided during a session
may not be brought forward again during that same session.”

A decision on whether “verbal alterations” amount to real changes are “a matter for the judgment of the chair [the Speaker, John Bercoww^]”.

I can't say I "fancy" JRM but I do find him rather enigmatic and engaging

You've been radicalised.

May could yet legally have EVERY option ruled out.

And if she accidentally Brexit without a deal she breaks the law

😂😭

Surely for the DUP UK remaining in EU is better than Mays deal?

The DUP aren't fueled by sense and logic.

Ewwww JRM odious man. No concern for the country - only for himself

You've been radicalised.

Or groomed.

This:
I can't say I "fancy" JRM but I do find him rather enigmatic and engaging

You've been radicalised.

Apparently ERG will support May’s Deal if she resigns!

Lonely
From the moment they failed in their no confidence motion why did she continue to appease them?

While the electorate clearly were tricked in the ref by all the false linkage with funding the NHS etc- the ERG were never going to be so foolable, so why inflate their expectations by her rhetoric even after they failed to oust her ?

• Personal support for the anti-immigration stance and much else in the ERG platform.
• Lack of political aptitude and a really poor tactician; TM can't distinguish a strong hand from a weak one, either her own or those of others..
• Complete inability to understand what the EU were saying; blind spot wrt Ireland.
• The GE result gave the DUP the upper hand and they are bosom pals with the ERG. Anger the DUP and they withdraw from the C&S deal, and it all goes tits up.
• Delusional.

Well, I can't see her doing that!

There's a lot of accidental double posting tonight, I notice. Seems in keeping with the general madness.

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
Major row brewing between whips office and Number 10. Sounds like one of May's team was telling ministers they could abstain and not be sacked at the same time as the whips were trying to get these ministers to vote with the government. Am told whips absolutely incandescent

🤣

The HoC might have to vote for an extension before it voted NC (and hope the EU granted it)

After an NC vote, I'm not sure if the HoC can vote for anything until a new PM is found.
May or a caretaker would still be bound by an extension vote to send the request to the EU Commission ^though.

I wonder if the EU would just say that losing a PM, after losing a WA twice, is our problem, not theirs
They may shudder at the thought of having to explain to a new PM all over again that there is no cake

A decision on whether “verbal alterations” amount to real changes are “a matter for the judgement of the chair

Surely there won't even be any verbal alterations between now and Wednesday - let alone a meaningful change that alters the substance of it.
It will be exactly what it was yesterday.
I really hope he doesn't allow it. But I fear he won't dare not - regardless of how clear the rules actually are.

Can someone explain to me why TM said she'd allow a free vote yesterday and then whipped today? I'm sure it's obvious but I don't get it,

I think DUP do have logic. They will do absolutely anything which keeps NI as part of the union. If that means staying in the EU then I reckon they'd do it. I can't imagine for a second they will blink on that - keeping NI as part of the UK is their reason d'etre (sp?).

someone has started a thread admitting she fancies JRM.

Some people have to live with staggeringly high levels of self-loathing, bless them.

Apparently ERG will support May’s Deal if she resigns!

Now actually that's an interesting proposition. The two things May has clung to most stubbornly are this deal and staying PM. What a choice!

I do hope that MPs in favour of a longer extension are talking to each other tonight and thinking tactically. I also hope Bercow will step up and refuse yet another MV. We know he has the guts - I hope he sees it as right.

Free vote was for the original No Deal motion. The Spelman amendment was whipped but passed anyway, so the government had to vote against its own motion.

TM wanted to rule out No Deal on 29th and offered a free vote on that, but seemingly wanted to retain the option of No Deal at a later stage so whipped against the amended motion.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
Extreme anger both inside and outside government at senior No10 aide who appears to have authorised Remain MPs to break three line whip

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
Gosh, who can it be?

Well Barwell doing this WOULD potentially work in May's favour. Paradoxically.

(Did May know, and is this anger genuine?!)

Peregrina Wed 13-Mar-19 16:04:09
La Vanguardia is wrong. Henry VIII split England (and the conquered Wales) from the Europe, not Britain from Europe.

And don't forget the Henrician Reformation/ land + power grab had massive repercussions in Ireland too.