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Brexit

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 14:35

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

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NoWordForFluffy · 13/03/2019 20:45

Well I wish they wouldn't, Red!

BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 20:45

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Peston" target="_blank">Robert Pestonn<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Peston" target="_blank">@Peston

What PM is saying is she will only ask for a short Brexit delay if MPs back her deal next week.

MPs, including many in her own party, will be incandescent
...
with insurrection in the Commons, @theresa_mayy^ taking huge personal risk by threatening MPs in this way.
Her job now genuinely on the line

< I'll only believe that when I see her furniture going out of No 10 >

Yamayo · 13/03/2019 20:45

Bloody hell. Hammond should be ashamed of himself.

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 20:46

Would now not be a good time for labour to do a vote of no confidence

Only if you want accidental no deal.

A no confidence motion this week could end with parliament dissolved before 29 March and thus no deal.

One next week could put that two week cut off past 29/3 though. So crisis after the A50 deadline

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HateIsNotGood · 13/03/2019 20:46

All of this is why I truly dislike (can't say hate as it goes against my user name and beliefs) Party Politics.

Often Leave voters are asked why? tell me, give me , link me - well here goes:

I do think the UK, EU, World needs to experience some 60s hippie-style 'moments'. We need change as a result of the many changes caused by Globalism and the rest.

The EU has come up with many great ideas and the UK has been a part of that too, but it is a massive, cumbersome elephant, slow to change and to effect any changes.

I want change - on a political level I want my Parliament governed by Independents - no Political Parties at all. Now the HoC has got their asses at the wall suddenly they can move swiftly on things, just as they always have been able to do. Party Politics is disintegrating. Could the EP/EU go non-Party or move as swiftly or effect such change? No.

frumpety · 13/03/2019 20:46

Which position ? her deal or the no deal she voted for ? It is all very discombobulating isn't it Smile

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 20:49

The Tory Party won't like her position of blackmailing them with a choice of her deal or a long extension.

Reality is that May is cornered by Spelman and legally does not have an alternative to that choice to present to her own party.

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NoWordForFluffy · 13/03/2019 20:49

We need an amendment so MPs get to vote specifically for a second ref.

BoreOfWhabylon · 13/03/2019 20:49

As a little light relief - someone has started a thread admitting she fancies JRM.

Amidst all the horrified posts, one stands out

He looks like he ejaculates dust

Grin

And now, back to the thread...

BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 20:49

Fluffy The EU's priority has always been to avoid No Deal
and they decided a long time ago that Revoke has too little support

tbh, that's when my priority shifted too,
as I feel more loyalty to the EU than to this shambles the Brexiters have made of our political system

LaurieMarlow · 13/03/2019 20:50

Wow this is like an extended masterclass on how not to leave the EU.

I never dreamed the political classes could be this incompetent.

EweSurname · 13/03/2019 20:50

Ooh leadsom dodging needing-to-resign-over-defying-whip question

wherearemychickens · 13/03/2019 20:50

Omg - she's not even sacking a whip, who voted against his own whip:

twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1105931317676568576

FiddleFaddleDingDong · 13/03/2019 20:50

Mark Francois on Sky News. No idea what he's saying as I have to mute that motherfucker every time I see him.

CordeliaEarhart · 13/03/2019 20:50

I'll only believe that when I see her furniture going out of No 10

Me too. She will simply never quit, she will have to be forced out. That can only happen in the next few months if:
A) her own MPs kick her out as leader (impossible because of Tory party rules); or
B) her own MPs and/or the DUP vote against her in a vote of no confidence (even less likely).

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 20:52

I expect tomorrow that an amendment will be tabled to block EP elections and a long extension. And I'm fairly sure it'd win.

This leaves the only legal option: May's Deal.

Except that's not been approved. And everyone hates it.

irony klaxon

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PestyMachtubernahme · 13/03/2019 20:52

Mike Freer (a whip) abstained

BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 20:55

Hate If you think the last few months have been the HoC moving quickly ... ! 😂
The EU can match that speed

Some MPs are doing as they should and some may be deselected for it
Come the next GE, there will be very few independents elected

More importantly, the EU go for consensus, either QMV or unanimous agreement of all countries
So countries have to work together

Much better than our system of winner take all, which is how a knife edge referendum result can cause such political & economic damage.
England can bulldoze the other 3 countries into anything the English want

BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 20:56

A whip who didn't whip himself ... keeps his job ?

"In office but not in power" could have been written for May

FiddleFaddleDingDong · 13/03/2019 20:57

Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
2) It is not clear that Bercow will allow - or even can allow - the govt to put a motion down on the deal again if there have been no changes to it. I'll look into the exact rules on that tomorrow. Health warning on it for now.

Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
More
3) Even if the ERG & DUP come on board, that deal is still unlikely to pass. There are probably, just about, enough Tory rebels to stop it.

HateIsNotGood · 13/03/2019 20:57

I can't say I "fancy" JRM but I do find him rather enigmatic and engaging - but then I'm that sort of geek that would watch the BBC Parliament channel for entertainment years before Brexit and 'governance' was a twinkle in most poster's eyes.

I think the dead-pan Sky Parli correspondent is a great 'foil' for him and he gets almost animated when speaking to her.

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 20:58

So I'm guessing that a short extension will be passed by the vote tomorrow but not a long extension. The numbers for a short one are there but not for a long one.

If May fails to get a short extension approved then she's legally out of EVERY option but her deal and exit on 29th.

But only if she can pass her deal!

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TatianaLarina · 13/03/2019 20:58

A no confidence motion this week could end with parliament dissolved before 29 March and thus no deal.

One next week could put that two week cut off past 29/3 though. So crisis after the A50 deadline

Having no government is a cast iron reason for an extension, whereas extra time for more wittering, not so much.

Random18 · 13/03/2019 20:58

Surely for the DUP UK remaining in EU is better than Mays deal?

mathanxiety · 13/03/2019 20:58

Die Zeit, a German weekly, fretted that the endless deadlock could inflict irreparable damage on the British people’s faith in their political system.

(From way upthread, in the Times article)

Die Zeit clearly more insightful and responsible than current British political parties, and with an instinctive protectiveness toward democracy and democratic institutions that is shockingly absent in the UK.