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Brexit

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 14:35

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

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Somerville · 13/03/2019 21:14

We're in such an odd situation at the moment. When MP's wanting BRINO/PV become more emboldened, like they have today, it potentially causes DUP/ERG to reconsider WA. However, it also strengthens the Tory remainer rebels to continue voting against WA... As a result, I think May would need a fair few Lexiters to back WA too...

Suddenly it feels like there is still all to play for.

tobee · 13/03/2019 21:14

I couldn't face listening to Leadsom.

What, exactly, is the vote on tomorrow? Just to ask for an extension? Or were times mentioned?

BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 21:15

Whips vs No 10 🤦🏻‍♀️

Total farce

The WInter of Discontent label still hangs aound Labour over far less

We need a catchy phrase for this chaos, or they'll get away with it

C'mon Westministenders, think of something

"Brexit Bonkery" - no

Yamayo · 13/03/2019 21:16

30th June was mentioned

PestyMachtubernahme · 13/03/2019 21:16

Tomorrow vote is to make Grayling PM or it may as well be.

HateIsNotGood · 13/03/2019 21:16

Each to their own view Choc - I am actually very, very pissed off with the HoC that they have taken this long to smell the coffee, but late is better than never.

I do think Party Politics is why it has 'dragged on'. This is not just a UK problem, the dragging on.

I want change, I don't want to wear clothes that have been made by an exploited under-paid worker/slave in another country.

I don't want to eat food or consume goods that have gone through a merry, but cheap, dance that causes unnecessary fossil fuel consumption. Eg: Raw materials from the EU, transported to UK for manufacture, then transported back to the EU for sale. Why, why, why?

The Environment and Planet is worth more than that. UK membership of the EU does not help my beliefs that we, at least in the UK, really prioritise our environment. Airy-fairy sunny uplands? Maybe, but me and the many that think like me, have more chance of effecting the sort of changes needed - maybe call it Localism - within the little UK, with an Independent Parliament, than the Elephant Riders in Strasbourg and Brussels.

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 21:17

Account of the farce

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
6.10pm mini cabinet

Gvt source: "Everything was fine at the mini cabinet until Greg Clark raised the whipping arrangement (for the no deal motion) . Julian Smith didn't know what was going on and the PM didn't understand what was going on. Pandemonium ensued ...

... As the crunch vote approached some ministers were told (by a Number 10 official?) that they could abstain - go to the bar etc - and there would be no repercussions."

This points to potential loss of trust between whips and No10...

Wouldn't surprise me if the whole story was made up to make an excuse and justify no sackings because of this:

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Other ERG MPs apoplectic that May could let off Remainers who defied three line whip, and suggesting they would rather vote down deal at MV3 and force an election

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Crimson72 · 13/03/2019 21:19

Sorry but I’m completely confused. Does this mean we will definitely not be leaving on no deal (even if we fail to agree anything else by 29th March?) If we do fail to agree anything then what happens next? If anyone could give me an explanation in the most basic terms possible I’d be most grateful!

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 21:19

But if its true, we have the Chief Whip and the PM running around like headless chicken not understanding what was going on.

I'm liking the excuse version of events better.

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 21:19

Tweet of the day😂😂

Adam Bienkov**@AdamBienkov

So it turns out that government whip Mike Freer will be allowed to remain a government whip despite breaking the three line whip he just imposed on himself.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 21:21

I think the headless chicken explanation is more likely, red

CordeliaEarhart · 13/03/2019 21:21

tobee, it is for a short extension to give time to pass legislation required to implement a deal (I think). It is amendable.

SwedishEdith · 13/03/2019 21:23

Apparently ERG will support May’s Deal if she resigns!

Does the deal still exist if she resigns? I know it's the "UK's" deal but a new PM is itself a political crisis. We can't just carry on where she left off. Just thinking out loud here.

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 21:23

Sorry but I’m completely confused. Does this mean we will definitely not be leaving on no deal (even if we fail to agree anything else by 29th March?) If we do fail to agree anything then what happens next? If anyone could give me an explanation in the most basic terms possible I’d be most grateful!

A vote to block no deal, doesn't stop no deal, because no deal is the default.

Legally if there is no deal and no extension by 29th March May would have to revoke or no deal illegally (or 'accidentally')

If we fail to agree anything we accidentally Brexit. Illegally.

Yes I know. It makes no sense.

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Violetparis · 13/03/2019 21:24

On Sky News earlier one of the correspondents said there may be an amendment put forward tomorrow by Tory MPs saying there should not be a second referendum. Still not sure if the numbers are there for a PV or if there ever will be especially now no deal has been voted down.

tobee · 13/03/2019 21:24

Cordelia
👍

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 21:24

I think the headless chicken explanation is more likely, red

Yeah that's where I'm at too. I'm just trying to avoid that reality by trying to think up plausible alternatives.

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 21:26

hate Green policy has more chance with the powerful Green contingent in the EP than the 1 Green MP that gets elected to the HoC

As to why things are shipped back & forth - and even worse for manufactured goods:
it's consumers wish for more stuff and as cheap as possible, holiday flights too

You need to tackle consumerism which drives all this
As long as voters want more stuff and cheaply, it's irrelevant who makes the laws enabling this

SparklySneakers · 13/03/2019 21:26

What's the point of all these bloody votes if they aren't binding?!

Why is a default no deal illegal?

AsparagusSoup · 13/03/2019 21:27

Ffs, it's as clear as mud 😵

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 21:28

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
^On whipping “ambiguity”

One Tory MP gets in touch to say “the Chief specifically told Mundell it was a three line whip and that conversation was overheard by colleagues as the vote started. So there is no excuse whatsoever...”^

Here is what Tory MPs received by text:

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea
Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea
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CordeliaEarhart · 13/03/2019 21:29

violet, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, TIG would all refuse to rule out a PV. It wouldn't take many rebels to get prevent such an amendment passing.

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 21:29

Ffs, it's as clear as mud

I'm Trying!

😜

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/03/2019 21:30

A default no deal is NOT illegal
The HoC has no power to change A50, which is international law

They can only instruct the PM not to deliberately aim for No Deal and to try to avoid it

lonelyplanetmum · 13/03/2019 21:30

Thanks for the explanations on the conflicting messages on the free vote/ whip.

As I understand it tomorrow's Article 50 extension amendable motion is conditional and in effect combined with another attempt at approving the WA? But we don't know which amendments to it will be proposed - the deadline is 10.30 tomorrow for amendments from the bit of Parliament I watched.