Westminstenders: Are we nearly there yet?

[RedToothBrush]

May went to Strasbourg to improve the WA. She claimed to have won 'legally binding' assurances which mean we can't be trapped in the backstop.

Despite the claim of 'legally binding' it seems that this isn't true. It reduces the risk of being trapped but does not eliminate it.

The whole thing is just political theatre designed to give Brexiteers the opportunity to climb down and support May's deal. Whether that will happen remains to seen.

The right wing press has largely been supportive of May this morning but the ERG were scathing last night which doesn't bode well.

For May to pass the deal she needs the DUP to effectively trigger dominoes of support. If she fails to get that it's highly unlikely it will pass.

In order to pass the deal May needs an extra 116 votes compared to last time. This breaks down to roughly 10 DUP, 65 of the ERG, 4 Independents (Field/Hermon /Hopkins/Austin) and 40 Labour.

The Labour MPs won't go for it unless the numbers look tight and the DUP are on board.

We should get a feel for how things are going as the day goes on. I expect more negative comments on it to be expressed as the day goes on.

We might yet see some amendments and curveball thrown into the mix too. However none of those tabled so far this morning look likely to pass (Labour are yet to table anything)

The Cabinet meets at 9.30am. This will give us an idea of how it's played out there.

At 11.15am Barclay faces the Brexit select committee so some more scrutiny there.

The crucial moment is early afternoon before as May opens the debate on the Meaningful Vote. It is expected there will be an Urgent Question tabled to Cox the Attorney General to assess whether his legal advice that the backstop could be a trap, has changed. This is where thing will come into focus and we will get a good idea of whether the deal will pass or how heavy the defeat will be. How heavy it is, is important.

Word is that Cox said no to the validity of May’s 'legally binding assurances' last night and has been pretty much been sent away to 'think about it with a team of lawyers'. Cox has replied this is "Bollocks". But you do have to wonder if this is what May did in the Home Office with her ridiculous court cases and the A50 case. None of which went well for her in court in the end. However Cox did tell The Mail yesterday he would only change his legal advice if the risk of being trapped was 'eliminated' not merely reduced.

If its going badly a No10 damage limitation exercise will be in full swing by about 4pm.

If The Withdrawal Agreement fails by a small amount May might be able to try again. If it fails by a lot we really are into political chaos. May's position might be untenable if the Cabinet withdraw their support. If May stays that's not necessarily going to stave off even greater crisis.

Theresa May looks likely to go for an extension until 23rd May. The EU have more or less agreed to this. But this might be too short to get an alternative plan on the table. And May would be unlikely to be the person to do this anyway as it requires a huge uturn. The 23rd May date is crucial - if the UK doesn't make contingency plans to take part in European Elections its a cliff edge. A deadline of 23rd May is also too short for another referendum.

The only way we get a 2nd ref is to take the option of a longer extension which requires us to take part in European elections, and this is politically unpalatable to many Tories as it endangers Brexit completely.

This is what ERGers need to weigh up. Are they really committed to no deal. If they are not then the WA is perhaps the only way to stop no deal AND the possibility of no brexit.

However the chances of the legislation for European elections and a long extension getting through the Commons looks extremely unlikely too. But who knows where we will be come the end of April.

Thus if the WA fails then the chances of No Deal sky rocket, even if no deal is blocked by Parliament tomorrow. Unless those same MPs are prepared to vote for EP elections further down the line if need be. This might be the only way to truly block no deal. Has this dawned on Tory moderates? And that's what remain moderates and Labour MPs need to weigh up. I don't think the penny has dropped with many. Yet.

The trouble is that the WA problem is really with hardline ERG Tories not moderates nor Labour anyway.

Voting starts at 7pm.

AS IF teenage girls are going to want to go to the supplies cupboard and inform the Keeper of the Products they are on their period every month. It's like social death. Would be far better to give every 11year old girl a voucher for menstrual products from the shop every month (or even better, a voucher fora moon cup)

Yes but you need to be able to ensure the money goes through the right hands first ... this way there are endless ways to create "partners" to work with schools - all of which will have The Right People making money from it.

My DD was called out of class last month, with all other girls who were on FSM. They were given a talk by a charity and told they would be given free sanitary products in return for sitting with a representative from the charity (a stranger) and discussing any issues they have with their period or their lives in general.

So not only stigmatised as a FSM recipient, an assumption that being on FSM means she has issues in her life that needs discussing, but also the delight of discussing her period with a stranger.

Funnily enough I refused consent. She doesn't have periods yet but I know she doesn't like talking about it. She told me she was only comfortable discussing it with me, but even then not so much. I completely sympathise as I was the same at her age.

Surely the money should be going on books. I would rather a food bank donation type approach to sanitary protection which students could access discreetly.

And the stranger discussion was every month. Not a one off.

Occasionally I find myself overwhelmed by a sense that the world is going backwards.

There's going to a keeper of the period protection? Miss please let me beg you for tampons because i like publically declaring I'm poor and aunt flo is visiting. Because being a teenager isn't embarrassing enough.

I naively thought they'd just be in the toilets, some kids will mess about with them when it's first introduced and then they'll get over it.

Isn't the subject of sanitary wear a great way for men to remind women of their place in the world ...

sitting with a representative from the charity (a stranger) and discussing any issues they have with their period or their lives in general

I can't think of anything I would rather have done less than this, as a teenager, and if I hadn't had sanitary products I think I'd have gone without and used toilet paper if this was my only other option.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3532074-Westminstenders-Adrift-at-Sea?watched=1
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Apparently one of the teachers complained to the head. I've heard no more about it. But I refused consent anyway.

I would rather go without meals than make my DD do that.

susan that's a bit weird...and boundary blurring. Glad your DD stayed clear.

I'm not sure that many 11 year olds would want a mooncup, to be honest. Many don't even try tampons from the get go, so I really don't think a voucher for a mooncup is a 'better' option.

How does the Red Box project work now? Surely somebody in the schools is keeper of this too? Why would they bother if the girls weren't willing to ask whoever they needed to in order to access the sanitary protection?

I thought that about boundaries too. The sanitary ware was to be handed out at the end of the monthly chat.

I felt that it was encouraging girls to compromise their wishes as to what they wanted to tell people about their periods because they were in need of sanitary ware.

I also felt that it was open to abuse. I know the people would be dbs checked but it's open for period fetishists to abuse. I'm not one to see a paedophile on every corner but I felt this was misguided.

Lego nord - pretty sure I read recently that they are funded by Putin

Aaron Banks - treason , do they still string people up for that here? Sometimes these old laws have not been changed...... any which way he should be tried. Make an exam you home I bet there would be a whole lot if others scuttling down their holes

Malthouse and Spelman amendments chosen

Our food bank supplies the local schools with San pro

susan That's an outrageous invasion of privacy
Incredibly insensitive from a charity FGS

As a teenager I'd have run away from school rather than talk about my periods to anyone
I avoided even talking to my mum about the subject (that's just me, not her fault)

I'm also giving some to the local red box project on Saturday assuming that I'm out of bed--

I was about 30s when I suddenly stopped being embarassed about breast size, periods etc
and iirc it was seeing someone my age with breast cancer that gave my head the necessary wobble

I was the same big choc. I didn't even tell my mum I had started my periods for about three months. DD asked me whether she had to tell me when she starts and I said not if she doesn't want to. I have put some packs of pads in her drawer.

So no whip for TM then whip against no deal being took off table so that amendment now being withdrawn. What a crock TM and her government is! So this vote tonight waste of time as no deal will carry on remaining as default position.

I had a book thrust in one hand and a homemade pad thrust in the other made out of a cotton was which was wrapped in an old remnant of a sheet with 2 loops. ( we had to wash the outers ourselves) I was 10 and in a care home.

Cotton wool wad*

{Yes but you need to be able to ensure the money goes through the right hands first ... this way there are endless ways to create "partners" to work with schools - all of which will have The Right People making money from it.}
Being a school governor I saw the quotes from various building works.
They are have to chose from an 'approved list' and the markups are astronomical compared to the 'open market'. So the government 'gives' with one hand and takes away with the other.

Sostenueto that's so sad.

I imagine it is more simple in that they will get Always/Tampax to product place and advertise in every school in the country.

Horrid about having to "have a chat" to claim! Stigmatising!