Westminstenders: Are we nearly there yet?

[RedToothBrush]

May went to Strasbourg to improve the WA. She claimed to have won 'legally binding' assurances which mean we can't be trapped in the backstop.

Despite the claim of 'legally binding' it seems that this isn't true. It reduces the risk of being trapped but does not eliminate it.

The whole thing is just political theatre designed to give Brexiteers the opportunity to climb down and support May's deal. Whether that will happen remains to seen.

The right wing press has largely been supportive of May this morning but the ERG were scathing last night which doesn't bode well.

For May to pass the deal she needs the DUP to effectively trigger dominoes of support. If she fails to get that it's highly unlikely it will pass.

In order to pass the deal May needs an extra 116 votes compared to last time. This breaks down to roughly 10 DUP, 65 of the ERG, 4 Independents (Field/Hermon /Hopkins/Austin) and 40 Labour.

The Labour MPs won't go for it unless the numbers look tight and the DUP are on board.

We should get a feel for how things are going as the day goes on. I expect more negative comments on it to be expressed as the day goes on.

We might yet see some amendments and curveball thrown into the mix too. However none of those tabled so far this morning look likely to pass (Labour are yet to table anything)

The Cabinet meets at 9.30am. This will give us an idea of how it's played out there.

At 11.15am Barclay faces the Brexit select committee so some more scrutiny there.

The crucial moment is early afternoon before as May opens the debate on the Meaningful Vote. It is expected there will be an Urgent Question tabled to Cox the Attorney General to assess whether his legal advice that the backstop could be a trap, has changed. This is where thing will come into focus and we will get a good idea of whether the deal will pass or how heavy the defeat will be. How heavy it is, is important.

Word is that Cox said no to the validity of May’s 'legally binding assurances' last night and has been pretty much been sent away to 'think about it with a team of lawyers'. Cox has replied this is "Bollocks". But you do have to wonder if this is what May did in the Home Office with her ridiculous court cases and the A50 case. None of which went well for her in court in the end. However Cox did tell The Mail yesterday he would only change his legal advice if the risk of being trapped was 'eliminated' not merely reduced.

If its going badly a No10 damage limitation exercise will be in full swing by about 4pm.

If The Withdrawal Agreement fails by a small amount May might be able to try again. If it fails by a lot we really are into political chaos. May's position might be untenable if the Cabinet withdraw their support. If May stays that's not necessarily going to stave off even greater crisis.

Theresa May looks likely to go for an extension until 23rd May. The EU have more or less agreed to this. But this might be too short to get an alternative plan on the table. And May would be unlikely to be the person to do this anyway as it requires a huge uturn. The 23rd May date is crucial - if the UK doesn't make contingency plans to take part in European Elections its a cliff edge. A deadline of 23rd May is also too short for another referendum.

The only way we get a 2nd ref is to take the option of a longer extension which requires us to take part in European elections, and this is politically unpalatable to many Tories as it endangers Brexit completely.

This is what ERGers need to weigh up. Are they really committed to no deal. If they are not then the WA is perhaps the only way to stop no deal AND the possibility of no brexit.

However the chances of the legislation for European elections and a long extension getting through the Commons looks extremely unlikely too. But who knows where we will be come the end of April.

Thus if the WA fails then the chances of No Deal sky rocket, even if no deal is blocked by Parliament tomorrow. Unless those same MPs are prepared to vote for EP elections further down the line if need be. This might be the only way to truly block no deal. Has this dawned on Tory moderates? And that's what remain moderates and Labour MPs need to weigh up. I don't think the penny has dropped with many. Yet.

The trouble is that the WA problem is really with hardline ERG Tories not moderates nor Labour anyway.

Voting starts at 7pm.

media types seem to know fuck all.
Very disappointed with the level of reporting overall. Most tv journalists/ media types as you call them have been incredibly craven. They confused objectivity and neutrality with absence of critical thought.

Most tv journalists/ media types as you call them have been incredibly craven.

It's what you get when "blogging" counts as serious reporting, and people follow "social media influencers" ... hopefully the past two years will encourage the more aware to quietly remove these peoples hands from the levers of influence.

What's this bullshit about the Malthouse 'compromise'? For fuck's fucking sake, do they really still not get the position we are in?

As always, Dilbert seems to say something ...

From The Guardian
8m ago
11:22
What the Malthouse compromise amendment says
This is what the Malthouse compromise amendment says.

At end, add “; notes the steps taken by the government, the EU and its member states to minimise any disruption that may occur should the UK leave the EU without an agreed withdrawal agreement and proposes that the government should build on this work as follows: 1. That the government should publish the UK’s day one tariff schedules immediately; 2. To allow businesses to prepare for the operation of those tariffs, that the government should seek an extension of the article 50 process to 10.59pm on 22 May 2019, at which point the UK would leave the EU; 3. Thereafter, in a spirit of co-operation and in order to begin discussions on the future relationship, the government should offer a further set of mutual standstill agreements with the EU and member states for an agreed period ending no later than 30 December 2021, during which period the UK would pay an agreed sum equivalent to its net EU contributions and satisfy its other public international law obligations; and 4. The government should unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK.”.

Hardcore Brexitologists will know that the amendment is actually based on the Malthouse compromise plan B. For more on Malthouse, you can read the full text here.

Btw loving the 'Hardcore Brexitologists' - think we all come under that banner on here!

that the government should seek an extension of the article 50 process to 10.59pm on 22 May 2019, at which point the UK would leave the EU

It can seek, but it won't find ....

LonelyandTiredandLow
Someone posted a picture of that last night. An older text with bits scribbled out and with 6/7 signatures put on the bottom.
They were too lazy to retype it!

Jo Coburn has just had to explain to Steve Baker that he can want the Brady amendment all he likes but the EU won't agree to it.

The EU computer says no!

I think future discussions with the UK government on the basis that it is stable and trustworthy could be on shaky ground.

Johnson still doesn't get it. Thinks we need to keep No Deal in reserve for err, dunno what:

"It's crazy to disable yourself as you go into a negotiation - it makes no sense at all. Why would we shoot ourselves in the foot like that?"

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47529293

He thinks we're GOING INTO a negotiation! What bit of Barnier's statement that the negotiations are already concluded doesn't he understand? Brexiteers have been bleating this trope about not hamstringing ourselves in negotiations since before the Referendum. It was pointless then (as the crafty buggers understand English too and are well aware of our situation) and it's particularly meaningless to keep peddling the same asinine lie now.

The Daily Mash nails it again
www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/im-not-even-dipping-a-toe-in-that-fking-mess-says-queen-20190313183515

I think future discussions with the UK government on the basis that it is stable and trustworthy could be on shaky ground.

Just means everything needs to be signed off at each stage of the way, and put into a formal treaty.

The EU has decades of experience of dealing with dodgy regimes. The UK by contrast is a staggeringly incompetent rogue state that hasn't quite grasped the first rule of rogue statery is ... not to talk about rogue statery.

The problem now, is going to any "Leave town"

A leave town is any northern place where more than 51% of the voters chose leave.

This means that 49% of the population are just not good vox pops. And it neglects the shift in leave voters which has occurred disportionately in Labour stronghold towns in the North.

It's basically a London centric media despite to find authentic stereotypes of flat caps and terrace houses to perpetuate people as being stupid and uneducated.

Which is precisely why the stereotype is helping to add to the problem and cause entrenchment of leave voters who are fed up as being thought of as provisional hicks.

A leave town is any northern place where more than 51% of the voters chose leave.

And probably 7 or 8 ideas about how Brexit should go, none of which is even close to the current horror show in Westminster.

Leavers are having to learn a hard lesson about the power of one.

Is the Malthouse 'compromise' likely to gain any sort of traction?

Which is precisely why the stereotype is helping to add to the problem and cause entrenchment of leave voters who are fed up as being thought of as provisional hicks.

The debate on MN over the past two years speaks for itself.

Is the Malthouse 'compromise' likely to gain any sort of traction?

Does it matter ?

TM's voice is worse today....

JC wearing a make period products free badge.

No, not really.

DGR from all the Leavers I've talked to locally have far more in common in terms of what they think is wrong with the country than anything I've heard pass the lips of May and the likes of JRM.

Once you get past the initial personal identity of what it means to be a Leaver or a Remainer it's quite telling.

In some ways the labels of leave and remain as identities have been a major part of the problem and the media has a large role in making them continue and deepen.

Dan Bloom
@danbloom1
BREAKING Theresa May will vote AGAINST No Deal Brexit

Post mitten kitten

I can understand May voting against no deal, she's worked stubbornly on the WA and she's sticking with it stubbornly.