Westminstenders: Are we nearly there yet?

[RedToothBrush]

May went to Strasbourg to improve the WA. She claimed to have won 'legally binding' assurances which mean we can't be trapped in the backstop.

Despite the claim of 'legally binding' it seems that this isn't true. It reduces the risk of being trapped but does not eliminate it.

The whole thing is just political theatre designed to give Brexiteers the opportunity to climb down and support May's deal. Whether that will happen remains to seen.

The right wing press has largely been supportive of May this morning but the ERG were scathing last night which doesn't bode well.

For May to pass the deal she needs the DUP to effectively trigger dominoes of support. If she fails to get that it's highly unlikely it will pass.

In order to pass the deal May needs an extra 116 votes compared to last time. This breaks down to roughly 10 DUP, 65 of the ERG, 4 Independents (Field/Hermon /Hopkins/Austin) and 40 Labour.

The Labour MPs won't go for it unless the numbers look tight and the DUP are on board.

We should get a feel for how things are going as the day goes on. I expect more negative comments on it to be expressed as the day goes on.

We might yet see some amendments and curveball thrown into the mix too. However none of those tabled so far this morning look likely to pass (Labour are yet to table anything)

The Cabinet meets at 9.30am. This will give us an idea of how it's played out there.

At 11.15am Barclay faces the Brexit select committee so some more scrutiny there.

The crucial moment is early afternoon before as May opens the debate on the Meaningful Vote. It is expected there will be an Urgent Question tabled to Cox the Attorney General to assess whether his legal advice that the backstop could be a trap, has changed. This is where thing will come into focus and we will get a good idea of whether the deal will pass or how heavy the defeat will be. How heavy it is, is important.

Word is that Cox said no to the validity of May’s 'legally binding assurances' last night and has been pretty much been sent away to 'think about it with a team of lawyers'. Cox has replied this is "Bollocks". But you do have to wonder if this is what May did in the Home Office with her ridiculous court cases and the A50 case. None of which went well for her in court in the end. However Cox did tell The Mail yesterday he would only change his legal advice if the risk of being trapped was 'eliminated' not merely reduced.

If its going badly a No10 damage limitation exercise will be in full swing by about 4pm.

If The Withdrawal Agreement fails by a small amount May might be able to try again. If it fails by a lot we really are into political chaos. May's position might be untenable if the Cabinet withdraw their support. If May stays that's not necessarily going to stave off even greater crisis.

Theresa May looks likely to go for an extension until 23rd May. The EU have more or less agreed to this. But this might be too short to get an alternative plan on the table. And May would be unlikely to be the person to do this anyway as it requires a huge uturn. The 23rd May date is crucial - if the UK doesn't make contingency plans to take part in European Elections its a cliff edge. A deadline of 23rd May is also too short for another referendum.

The only way we get a 2nd ref is to take the option of a longer extension which requires us to take part in European elections, and this is politically unpalatable to many Tories as it endangers Brexit completely.

This is what ERGers need to weigh up. Are they really committed to no deal. If they are not then the WA is perhaps the only way to stop no deal AND the possibility of no brexit.

However the chances of the legislation for European elections and a long extension getting through the Commons looks extremely unlikely too. But who knows where we will be come the end of April.

Thus if the WA fails then the chances of No Deal sky rocket, even if no deal is blocked by Parliament tomorrow. Unless those same MPs are prepared to vote for EP elections further down the line if need be. This might be the only way to truly block no deal. Has this dawned on Tory moderates? And that's what remain moderates and Labour MPs need to weigh up. I don't think the penny has dropped with many. Yet.

The trouble is that the WA problem is really with hardline ERG Tories not moderates nor Labour anyway.

Voting starts at 7pm.

Do you think there's a majority in the HoC for revoke/ people's vote/ seek lengthy extension which keeps us in for another couple of years whilst we negotiate a much softer Brexit?

In the new Binary politics, no Brexit must be revoke.

Also why should Brexiteers have another 2 years to piss about ? They should have been prepared from the off.

At the risk of becoming boring, the missive from my MP is the word on the street. Bugger Brexit, and fix Britain. Try and sell two more years of this to the people canvassed - you won't get far.

I think they'll vote for an extension.

Milyonthe

I'd have a bit more heart, should the EU fail to agree to an extension, then its almost certain Mays deal will succeed.

The alternatives would be Revoke or no-deal, so 2 of the 3 options are Brexit.

Aside, i don't agree these threads are for remainers only but anyone, leave or remain who spouts rubbish will be pulled up on it.

Is a temporary cross-party coalition (in a grown-up, Tigger-like way) without an election possible under a no confidence situation?

Yes.

Milly
I think they'll vote for an extension.
How long and what for ?
Because the other 27 countries will only grant one if there is a good reason.

Number of Tory MPs went to see members of Polish governing party last week in Warsaw - broadly on same errand, namely to block Article 50 extension.

Is that as a break from their other hobby of fitting wheels to a tomato ?

Larry Elliot is the Guardian's tame Brexiter, but he makes bald statements which can't be substantiated e.g. his point 3 - that remainers think there is nothing wrong with the EU. He clearly hasn't bothered to listen to any remainers, or he would know that many of us think it needs reform. When it comes to reform, how does the UK stropping out help it to reform? Unless all the necessary reforms are being blocked by the UK?

Then when it comes to solutions, he never has any, it all degenerates into if and then and I hope.

If our politicians betray Brexit and vote for delay, @MatteoSalviniMI can defend the 17.4 million and veto!

Sovereignty then?

Larry Elliot is the Guardian's tame Brexiter, but he makes bald statements which can't be substantiated

DGRs maxim: once one error is found, the whole is useless.

BBC interviewer just suggested interviewee is scaremongering when he says "people will die" - was very pleased to see the Welsh MP explain govt have been buying freezers to stockpile medicines, but how many?
BBC - no comeback.

First time i've seen that on BBC.

Tory Brexiters asking Poland to block extension. Is this treachery?

Tory Brexiters asking Poland to block extension. Is this treachery?

Reeks of desperation to me ...

fishes Sadly, the HoC is seriously lacking in grownups with balls / ovaries

Ever since the ref, I have longed for cross-party agreement on how to proceed & MPs working together
There is nothing constitutionally or legally to prevent this

BUT careerism, party loyalty and venality - combined with gross arrogance & wilful ignorance - mean this is most unlikely

Millyonthe
That article is quite interesting but as with so many things that leavers are saying, there is no realistic plan to make things significantly better.
Other countries that the UK trades with through the EU can't give 'better' deals. Those that the UK trades with outside the EU (and the other 40 odd countries that already have FTAs with the EU that the UK benefits from, either don't have a significant amount of 'stuff' the UK wants or in the case of the USA will enforce a significant lowering of standards. The world is changing rapidly and with the significant downturn in China everything is in turmoil. The 'happy days' of the British Empire where it could screw over and dominate are over and the UK on it's own simply can't successfully barge into places any more.
If you look at the issues in Europe, many of them are the same as was behind the origins of Brexit, but a difference is that the EU27 appreciate being together as a bloc although the far right would love to be in charge of the bloc, they don't want to break it up except that causing disharmony suits their techniques. A lot of shouting around and a bit of violence, but underneath there is no sustainable plan that peace loving people would support. Even the Americans managed to spot the problem, in Iraq I think, when they announced that it needs to be a mission to win hearts and minds rather than running around with guns and rockets.

The only thing that is NOT Brexit is revoke. All (both) other options are to leave. Crash out will take about a year, the WA 2 years or more.

Taking back control by begging foreign far right governments to interfere in your country's 'democratic' processes.

The mood seemed to be changing last night BCF, it just made me wonder.

It really would be an excellent way of backing down without anyone being left with all of the blame.

Maybe I spot a 'win win' situation.
All the far right groups can emigrate to the UK where they can all be a big happy family. It would take some of the stress out of the EU.
Remainers would do a house swap with the FR that are moving to the UK of course.

Before being condemned for this idea, it is essentially what is being discussed by some in the Balkans, although on religious grounds rather than political allegiances.

Taking back control by begging foreign far right governments to interfere in your country's 'democratic' processes.

Wonder where that lies on the Patriotism Treason scale?

Wonder where that lies on the Patriotism Treason scale?

"... and hath given counsel to His Majesties enemies abroad ...^

Frog Face Farage was telling the EU parliament that they should block any attempt to get an extension today. Threatening to return with hordes or eurosceptics in the elections if they didn't. The twat.

Any news on amendments?

“In the new Binary politics, no Brexit must be revoke.
Also why should Brexiteers have another 2 years to piss about ? They should have been prepared from the off.
At the risk of becoming boring, the missive from my MP is the word on the street. Bugger Brexit, and fix Britain. Try and sell two more years of this to the people canvassed - you won't get far.”

I agree with DGR.

I also think that the reason TM’s WA keeps failing is because, thanks to all the lies and manipulation, no-one believes her or trusts her any more.

Free sanitary products - hmm - wonder if he's costed in getting these from the EU post brexit (pads at least are only sourced from the EU)

Free sanitary products from next year for secondary schools! That was unexpected from Hammond.
This is such a headline grabbing waste of time.
AS IF teenage girls are going to want to go to the supplies cupboard and inform the Keeper of the Products they are on their period every month. It's like social death.
Would be far better to give every 11year old girl a voucher for menstrual products from the shop every month (or even better, a voucher fora moon cup)