Westminstenders: Are we nearly there yet?

[RedToothBrush]

May went to Strasbourg to improve the WA. She claimed to have won 'legally binding' assurances which mean we can't be trapped in the backstop.

Despite the claim of 'legally binding' it seems that this isn't true. It reduces the risk of being trapped but does not eliminate it.

The whole thing is just political theatre designed to give Brexiteers the opportunity to climb down and support May's deal. Whether that will happen remains to seen.

The right wing press has largely been supportive of May this morning but the ERG were scathing last night which doesn't bode well.

For May to pass the deal she needs the DUP to effectively trigger dominoes of support. If she fails to get that it's highly unlikely it will pass.

In order to pass the deal May needs an extra 116 votes compared to last time. This breaks down to roughly 10 DUP, 65 of the ERG, 4 Independents (Field/Hermon /Hopkins/Austin) and 40 Labour.

The Labour MPs won't go for it unless the numbers look tight and the DUP are on board.

We should get a feel for how things are going as the day goes on. I expect more negative comments on it to be expressed as the day goes on.

We might yet see some amendments and curveball thrown into the mix too. However none of those tabled so far this morning look likely to pass (Labour are yet to table anything)

The Cabinet meets at 9.30am. This will give us an idea of how it's played out there.

At 11.15am Barclay faces the Brexit select committee so some more scrutiny there.

The crucial moment is early afternoon before as May opens the debate on the Meaningful Vote. It is expected there will be an Urgent Question tabled to Cox the Attorney General to assess whether his legal advice that the backstop could be a trap, has changed. This is where thing will come into focus and we will get a good idea of whether the deal will pass or how heavy the defeat will be. How heavy it is, is important.

Word is that Cox said no to the validity of May’s 'legally binding assurances' last night and has been pretty much been sent away to 'think about it with a team of lawyers'. Cox has replied this is "Bollocks". But you do have to wonder if this is what May did in the Home Office with her ridiculous court cases and the A50 case. None of which went well for her in court in the end. However Cox did tell The Mail yesterday he would only change his legal advice if the risk of being trapped was 'eliminated' not merely reduced.

If its going badly a No10 damage limitation exercise will be in full swing by about 4pm.

If The Withdrawal Agreement fails by a small amount May might be able to try again. If it fails by a lot we really are into political chaos. May's position might be untenable if the Cabinet withdraw their support. If May stays that's not necessarily going to stave off even greater crisis.

Theresa May looks likely to go for an extension until 23rd May. The EU have more or less agreed to this. But this might be too short to get an alternative plan on the table. And May would be unlikely to be the person to do this anyway as it requires a huge uturn. The 23rd May date is crucial - if the UK doesn't make contingency plans to take part in European Elections its a cliff edge. A deadline of 23rd May is also too short for another referendum.

The only way we get a 2nd ref is to take the option of a longer extension which requires us to take part in European elections, and this is politically unpalatable to many Tories as it endangers Brexit completely.

This is what ERGers need to weigh up. Are they really committed to no deal. If they are not then the WA is perhaps the only way to stop no deal AND the possibility of no brexit.

However the chances of the legislation for European elections and a long extension getting through the Commons looks extremely unlikely too. But who knows where we will be come the end of April.

Thus if the WA fails then the chances of No Deal sky rocket, even if no deal is blocked by Parliament tomorrow. Unless those same MPs are prepared to vote for EP elections further down the line if need be. This might be the only way to truly block no deal. Has this dawned on Tory moderates? And that's what remain moderates and Labour MPs need to weigh up. I don't think the penny has dropped with many. Yet.

The trouble is that the WA problem is really with hardline ERG Tories not moderates nor Labour anyway.

Voting starts at 7pm.

She should have stood her ground then but she was also being pushed by brexiteers and there we go.

And what a good idea that was.

It is the dishonest traders that are of most concern re external borders

So we're taking back control of our borders so we can decide to have even less borders than we had before.

Alrighty then....

{You paid £3 for this item, are you willing to pay £6 for it? }

In Venezuela (whose standard of living was not so different to the UK) if you suggested that sort of price rise their comment would be 'you lucky bastards'. Inflation there has been running at about 20% a week. the price doubles every 19 days and over the last year has been over a Million percent inflation.

Given all the talk about fancy high tech non existent solutions to the border problem, though, it's particularly ironic that the solution now being offered is so rustic in style.

{Or is it yet another example of why A50 isn't fit for purpose?}
When A50 was written they hadn't contemplated that a country wishing to leave would have no fucking clue about why they were leaving or what they could reasonably expect to gain by leaving.
Leaving as a concept is one thing, but 17 million permutations of it will mage a significant number of them unhappy.
OK you would like a cup of coffee, would you like 1 sugar grain or 17 million sugar grains in it?

As your income sinks and you're made redundant.
On the BBC 10 o'clock news last night, people in Luton thought job losses were worth it. I may have used unladylike language.

When the vote happened my kids were doing their A Levels and GCSEs
The whole of DDs (very large) college were wandering around singing this
it seems a somewhat appropriate placemarker

Elena, were the people in Luton talking about losing their own jobs, or some people somewhere else who they don’t know losing their jobs? I can’t believe it would be the former! What could they possibly think they would be gaining to make that worthwhile?

in effect that on balance destroying the economy was less risky than "destroying people's faith in democracy"

And yet for 16mil (+ even more now) it has done precisely that with bells on.

Hammond is going to have an interesting time of it with the Budget but sadly will just feed into "we will be fine" as he can't specify price increases because we don't know what they will be or how much the sterling will have crashed or whether we will be able to import so much of it!

It's clear that No Deal will massively destabilise the GFA. It's putting NI farmers at a huge disadvantage, creating an invitation to smugglers to set up new business and it's a totally nonsensical way to handle tariffs.

I really think that Brexiteers must have forgotten that we do have a land border and it's a fragile one at that.

To be fair, I recall that the EU elections were the reason why the EU was pushing May to trigger A50 asap.

Bollocks. The EU said nothing about the triggering of A50.

...encourage Britain to leave the European Union, and thus weaken it.
www.news.com.au/world/europe/1990s-manifesto-outlining-russias-plans-is-starting-to-come-true/news-story/343a27c71077b87668f1aa783d03032c

It is always good to see Russia's plan coming along nicely.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/16/arron-banks-nigel-farage-leave-brexit-russia-connection

Is Cox ever going to stop playing with his bits and declare the Referendum illegal?
Oh hang on, it has already been declared illegal, but nothing is being done because it was only and advisory referendum.

And for any one who missed it Lonely's Russian Report again publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/179109.htm

UK could revoke and blame Russia.

Talk1n that is now my all time favourite Brexit song. I fully intend to use it as my last UK fb post before getting on the plane to emigrate

I wonder if workers in Luton will be quite so sanguine when it's their own job which goes. Will they think it worth it when the P45s are dished out? I really doubt it somehow. It will be "Why don't they do something?" Not, "This is what we wanted."

The EU would only have pointed out the blindingly obvious fact that if the UK were still in the EU when the EU Parliament elections are due to be held at the end of May, then the UK would legally have had to participate.

I've never fully grasped the huge stampede to trigger A50.

I understood it for tax purposes for a minority.

I didn't understand why the rush was so intense for the majority - I suspected it was because they wanted to be seen to enforce "the will of the people" and show they would "do" Brexit.

Which always seemed a stupid idea considering none of them knew what it looked like at the time.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-acknowledges-regime-will-hurt-north-s-businesses-1.3824076?mode=amp

So no tariffs on goods from Ireland to Northern Ireland but huge tariffs from Ireland to the rest of the UK. They are still figuring out what they will do for goods going Ireland to Northern Ireland to rest of UK.

Boles said parliament should use any extension to article 50 to “start voting on compromises”.

He added:

We have not been given the chance ever, by this prime minister, to debate and vote on alternative compromises. We need to start doing that next week so the EU sees that we are actually making progress, that we are gripping reality not fantasy.

Boles said the prime minister was entitled to try to get her deal through. But he added:

What she is not entitled to do is prevent the rest of us from seeing if there are alternatives compromises that could attract the support of a majority.

QueenofThorns Of course other people's jobs are worth sacrificing.

Nimbys innit

I've never fully grasped the huge stampede to trigger A50.

IF (big "if") we find ourselves Dazed and Confused and still in the EU through revoke, then it will be seen as the first trick remainers played on Brexiteers ... goading them into setting off an impossibly short timescale to achieve a consensus for leaving. A brilliant strategy because it will never be admitted by losing leavers.

As I say, big "if" ...

Boles said parliament should use any extension to article 50 to “start voting on compromises”.

Too late, my friend, too late. You followed her up the hill. You can chose to die there.

Dear EU
Please can we have an extension in order to start doing the things we should have started doing two years ago?
Love UK

EU ROFL

This really is another fine mess we have gotten ourselves into.

Reading the various threads around the place at the moment, it's clear Leavers have lost any patience moderates may have had with them. And following on from my MPs circular yesterday, there is a definite mood that having wasted 2 years on Brexit, with nothing to show, maybe now would be a good time to look at knife crime and all the other pressing issues that can't be addressed by a distracted parliament