Westminstenders: Are we nearly there yet?

[RedToothBrush]

May went to Strasbourg to improve the WA. She claimed to have won 'legally binding' assurances which mean we can't be trapped in the backstop.

Despite the claim of 'legally binding' it seems that this isn't true. It reduces the risk of being trapped but does not eliminate it.

The whole thing is just political theatre designed to give Brexiteers the opportunity to climb down and support May's deal. Whether that will happen remains to seen.

The right wing press has largely been supportive of May this morning but the ERG were scathing last night which doesn't bode well.

For May to pass the deal she needs the DUP to effectively trigger dominoes of support. If she fails to get that it's highly unlikely it will pass.

In order to pass the deal May needs an extra 116 votes compared to last time. This breaks down to roughly 10 DUP, 65 of the ERG, 4 Independents (Field/Hermon /Hopkins/Austin) and 40 Labour.

The Labour MPs won't go for it unless the numbers look tight and the DUP are on board.

We should get a feel for how things are going as the day goes on. I expect more negative comments on it to be expressed as the day goes on.

We might yet see some amendments and curveball thrown into the mix too. However none of those tabled so far this morning look likely to pass (Labour are yet to table anything)

The Cabinet meets at 9.30am. This will give us an idea of how it's played out there.

At 11.15am Barclay faces the Brexit select committee so some more scrutiny there.

The crucial moment is early afternoon before as May opens the debate on the Meaningful Vote. It is expected there will be an Urgent Question tabled to Cox the Attorney General to assess whether his legal advice that the backstop could be a trap, has changed. This is where thing will come into focus and we will get a good idea of whether the deal will pass or how heavy the defeat will be. How heavy it is, is important.

Word is that Cox said no to the validity of May’s 'legally binding assurances' last night and has been pretty much been sent away to 'think about it with a team of lawyers'. Cox has replied this is "Bollocks". But you do have to wonder if this is what May did in the Home Office with her ridiculous court cases and the A50 case. None of which went well for her in court in the end. However Cox did tell The Mail yesterday he would only change his legal advice if the risk of being trapped was 'eliminated' not merely reduced.

If its going badly a No10 damage limitation exercise will be in full swing by about 4pm.

If The Withdrawal Agreement fails by a small amount May might be able to try again. If it fails by a lot we really are into political chaos. May's position might be untenable if the Cabinet withdraw their support. If May stays that's not necessarily going to stave off even greater crisis.

Theresa May looks likely to go for an extension until 23rd May. The EU have more or less agreed to this. But this might be too short to get an alternative plan on the table. And May would be unlikely to be the person to do this anyway as it requires a huge uturn. The 23rd May date is crucial - if the UK doesn't make contingency plans to take part in European Elections its a cliff edge. A deadline of 23rd May is also too short for another referendum.

The only way we get a 2nd ref is to take the option of a longer extension which requires us to take part in European elections, and this is politically unpalatable to many Tories as it endangers Brexit completely.

This is what ERGers need to weigh up. Are they really committed to no deal. If they are not then the WA is perhaps the only way to stop no deal AND the possibility of no brexit.

However the chances of the legislation for European elections and a long extension getting through the Commons looks extremely unlikely too. But who knows where we will be come the end of April.

Thus if the WA fails then the chances of No Deal sky rocket, even if no deal is blocked by Parliament tomorrow. Unless those same MPs are prepared to vote for EP elections further down the line if need be. This might be the only way to truly block no deal. Has this dawned on Tory moderates? And that's what remain moderates and Labour MPs need to weigh up. I don't think the penny has dropped with many. Yet.

The trouble is that the WA problem is really with hardline ERG Tories not moderates nor Labour anyway.

Voting starts at 7pm.

{I understand that tomorrow the UK government will effectively describe an ‘honesty box’ border for Northern Ireland in event of no deal.}

While it might work in a seriously flawed way with tariffs and tax collection, it will not satisfy the certification of livestock and necessary health checks. Industrial manufactured goods such as engineered metal parts is less of a worry as in many cases they will be checked on receipt.

So that will be fun...I presume they will have had to prepare two budgets to account for a deal and for no deal.

Will be interesting to see how much of the no deal budget is released. If I was Hammond I'd release both so people know how fucked they'll be.

I'm feeling spiteful though because I've been listening to LBC this morning and last night and there have been some particularly stereotypical fucking idiots leavers on. All angry 'cockney wide boy' and/or 'Yorkshire white van man' foaming at the mouth without any real grasp of the facts but extremely confident in their own bollocks diatribe.
I felt quite violent towards them if I'm honest.

They've announced some tariffs this morning according to LBC.

60% beef
40 or 50% chicken (can't quite remember)
10.6% on complete cars

Those were the ones mentioned.

Isn't it against WTO for us to not have a 'proper' border?

I need to research this bit - does anyone know?

*All angry Yorkshire white van man
*
Why aren't there ever any regretful redundant car industry workers ever in the press? There must be some?

FWIW...my bets have been on no-deal for a while now, my prediction is only swinging further and further towards no-deal with every passing day irrespective of whether they vote against it today.

It will be accidental no-deal because there's no consensus for any transition agreement or future trade relationship in the Govt, HoC or the country and the Tories are too dominated by leavers to revoke.

I suppose all those who are losing jobs could be trained in cyber espionage?

UK military turns to universities to research psychological warfare
Cambridge among partners shortlisted for £70m MoD funding, documents show

This is in no way related to Brexit.

Honest.

Funnily enough DH and I were discussing this following the Parliamentary select committee report thingy .The report below that had a section on Foreign influence in political campaigns. We were asking do we do reciprocal cyber monitoring and interference? Surely we’d hear if there were 1000s of Russian speakers in the U.K. sitting at computers attempting to interfere in Russian politics?

Our intelligence etc can’t be as fab as we all think if in November 2018 over 63% of the views of that Parliament interim report online were from foreign IP addresses and over half were from Russia and we didn’t even know that was happening in advance.

Why isn’t that report more well known? At least half the country don’t see EU membership and solidarity as an advantage and insurance policy against the true threat.

Russian-report

The tide is turning. Interesting thread from former Vote Leave staffer, Oliver Norgrove:

I'm now at the stage where I think if we end up not leaving it'll be a blessing. Let's face it, my side just doesn't deserve it.

mobile.twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/1105576277115891714

{Why aren't there ever any regretful redundant car industry workers ever in the press? There must be some?}
HMG is busy printing all the P45 forms but they haven't been issued yet, give it time.

wheresmymojo
I forget the definitive answer but essentially there has to be a 'border' so that goods crossing it are properly checked. thus the WTO 'solution' as stated by some is not as simple as is being proclaimed.

This a thread from BEFORE last night's vote

Nigel Marriott @ marriottnigel
Ok here's my analysis of the #MeaningfulVote today & possible votes tomorrow & Thursday @anandMenon1 @sundersays @GoodwinMJ @ElectionMapsUK. As before I analysed how MPs have voted rather than what they say will do using Hansard data. We have 7 factions in @UKParliament ... /1

... which is unchanged from what I said in February t.co/8y0kzXlnI1. Since then I redid my numbers using cluster analysis to get the final table above but haven't had time to update my blog. So you can visualise who is in which block, the table here lists key names. /2

The question then becomes whether any of these factions will split tonight. I am working on the assumption that any splits will cancel each other out so you can combine my blocks from above to get scenarios based on your assessments of what they stand for. /3

So a scenario to pass the deal is 328-309 = (Hard Brx+Brexit+Loyals+LtdLoyals) - (LtdOppose+Oppose+HardOppose). /4

If the changes #TheresaMay has brought back are persuasive to #Brexiteers but not Hard Brexiteers then we have a scenario of defeat of 263-374 instead with Hard Brexiteers voting No instead. /5

If the WA is defeated and we go to a NoDeal vote tomorrow, then I would expect LtdLoyalists to vote against #NoDeal. Assuming Loyalists vote for NoDeal then I expect NoDeal to be defeated 310-327. /6

That would then take us onto A50 extension on Thursday. This is when it becomes interesting. The LtdLoyalists have shown little appetite for the SNP motions so far and I can see them abstaining. Then we have 310-309 No vote for extending A50! In other words a knife edge. /7

That gives us a Maggie vote "No! No! No!" which @bbclaurak was suggesting was possible a couple of weeks ago. It is worth pointing out that both Ltd Loyalists & Ltd Opposers disproportionately represent Leave seats and at that point they will have a stark choice. /8

I will update my blog when I get a chance so you can see the data for yourself. /end

My blog is up but still needs a bit of editing. You can find my data there though t.co/nsWdnNuPtD /end (finally!)

This is really good. He has allocated every MP to a certain Brexit tribe and MPs vote along these lines.

What looks to have happened last night was May roughly carried the Loyalists and the Ltd Loyalists as well as around half the Brexiteers.

He says in the thread above how he thinks the no deal and extension votes will go.

Personally I don't think it will play out quiet like he is suggesting because this is now a free vote and on the basis of what some MPs have said. For example the Loyalist group contains the Cabinet and we know that it's split. Previously May herself voted for no deal but she won't today. We also have the likes of Brexiteers Brady saying he will vote no deal and no extension but we have hard Brexiteer Baker saying he will vote no deal but for an extension.

With the whip removed, more unexpected things CAN happen. What it does is splinter the Tory vote which has for the most part generally towed the whip.

I've seen it suggested that up to 500 MPs could vote against no deal today. I think this is massively over optimistic. But no deal should be voted against reasonably comfortably. Most of the Loyalists are anti no deal and a sizeable number of Brexiteers are also anti no deal. Its a relatively small number of ministers who are classed as Loyalists who will instead show their true colours as hard Brexiteers. This is why Jeremy Hunt voting For no deal is interesting (as he's trying to align with some of the party membership in a bid for the leadership). I suspect a few Cabinet ministers will have some difficult personal choices to make (I'm looking at you Sajid and Gavin)

Thus whilst these voting blocks have constrained parliament with the whip removed we get a radically different pattern emerge. Combining unconstrained commitment to no deal plus these tribes, should show just how wedded MPs are to a hard Brexit or a softer Brexit. It shows exactly which MPs are effectively the swing voters who will ultimately decide which way we go.

As Nigel here says the extension vote is more difficult and I think the wording of this is where it starts to get difficult. I don't think there are numbers for a long extension (so that rules out PV) but a short extension doesn't satisfy the EU as to the purpose of the extension even though I think it probably would scrap through.

The only thing that's going to cross that is a mixed option which is short but allows for further extension somehow. Is this possible? Not sure.

I think we might see a range of amendments and Bercow selecting quite a few. How these are sequenced then becomes important as MPs can see how the ground lies as the votes progress - thus making earlier amendments effectively testers and later ones the really important ones.

The whole thing becomes very tactical and very volitile.

MPs can no longer hide behind 'well Mrs May told me'. They have personal responsibility now. That's huge.

This all also weakens Labour's whip - not so much on the no deal vote but certainly on the extension. Corbyn will try it, but his personal authority in the HoC was already weaker than May's.

Looking at this data of tribes, I can't help but be annoyed at May failing to have a free vote earlier to break the deadlock. It would have helped her not hindered.

Revoke a tiny bit more likely now? Let’s see what happens in the no-deal vote today...

Another interesting thread:

We are approaching an opportunity for Revoke.
e.g. UK can give no good reason to extend other than "we haven't decided". EU refuse extension and with almost no time left, HoC instructs Govt to revoke and Govt does so.
EU may then grant extension for law to catch up politics.

mobile.twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1105714239010979840

Interesting times. Anything goes. There was Ian Paisley. Who we know was bought and paid for by Sri Lanka. Who else was/is he open to? Ne'er a word about these dodgy, dodgy people. They go on everything unquestioned.

The whip is only being withdrawn on the No Deal vote right. So whipped on the request for an extension.

Does withdrawing the whip once increase the pressure for free votes on everything Brexit related this week?

I don't understand this honesty box border. Does that mean there will be a hard border between NI and rest of UK? Otherwise how is it taking back control of our borders and migration?

Oliver Norgrove and Roland Smith are fascinating. Also Iain Dale to a lesser extent. All were Leavers. Smith is now a Remainer, Norgrove is a something of a waverer and Dale is now a firm soft leaver.

There's been a lot of focus on hard Brexiteers and not enough on these three groups and how members of them are now thinking.

Hunt is also interesting, though his views are undeniably personal. He's the richest cabinet minister who is acting in the way that best works for him on a personal level. I'm sure there will be more wealthy Remainers who will share his mentality about personal opportunities that disaster capitalism will give them.

My point being the people to watch are the flippers and the soft Leavers today.

Does withdrawing the whip once increase the pressure for free votes on everything Brexit related this week?

Potentially as it makes MPs show their hand more.

The big thing is it means there's no where to hide for MPs anymore.

lonely from what I've seen on Twitter the no deal vote is free but they're being whipped in the amendments, so guessing they'll also be whipped on extension should no deal be voted down

I don't understand this honesty box border. Does that mean there will be a hard border between NI and rest of UK? Otherwise how is it taking back control of our borders and migration?
By shifting the blame for all our self made problems from the EU onto ROI presumably.

WTO rules which immediately talks about having MFN - if we have a "special relationship" with EU or US there will be sanctions.

Having 0% works short term but will cause issues in long run.

Farmers need clarification or it will decimate sector a la Minford.

The town I live in has just been on the main bbc morning news apparently to gauge public reaction to last nights vote. Absolutely pitiful journalism. All the people interviewed were working class salt of the earth types and all defiant in their demand for no deal. 'We'll manage' was the constant refrain as if it's just going to involve a few price rises and then the unedifying view of drunken
Adults shouting 'out out out' at the camera in the local pub. No questioning about the probable real impact of a no deal just timid laughter and a pat on the back.No wonder views haven't changed. Sorry rant over

Jim Pickard@pickardje
price of food and cars from Europe would rise sharply under no-deal Brexit according to government plans set out this morning to spook (sorry, inform) Tory MPs ahead of tonight’s big vote

George Parker @ georgewparker
Unless you decide to bring your goods into the UK via the open Irish border... where no doubt you would find an honesty box to pay your tariffs

Steve Baker (who JH referred to as "Steve Brexit", ha ha) on Today saying in effect that on balance destroying the economy was less risky than "destroying people's faith in democracy". (He favours no deal but a sort of "standstill period", ie an extension of I think up to 2 years.)
The amazing thing is that he doesn't realise that very many people have had no faith in our particular brand of unrepresentative, duplicitous democracy for a long time now.

Honesty box is ridiculous
It is the dishonest traders that are of most concern re external borders

Under WTO rules, other countries might demand the same treatment at the rest of the UK's external borders
Imagine not just all sorts of dodgy goods flooding in, but also loss of VAT receipts for the UK exchequer

The RoI would have to impose tariffs, under WTO rules, so NI businessed would be hammered.

Yes Caucasian there are too many of those types of vox pops on TV news. It doesn’t do justice to the population as a whole.

Hopefully a large number of MPs think a bit more deeply.

Morning all, another day in the madhouse begins!

I would bet on the 'we'll just manage' types to be the first to complain when prices start to seriously rise.

I'm another who is flummoxed by the idea that with No Deal there won't be a border between Ireland and NI, but tariffs won't apply between them or something, but we might have a sea border.... I was listening to Barclay on R4 and he just spoke total gobbledygook.

Is the vote starting at 7pm again?