Westminstenders: Are we nearly there yet?

[RedToothBrush]

May went to Strasbourg to improve the WA. She claimed to have won 'legally binding' assurances which mean we can't be trapped in the backstop.

Despite the claim of 'legally binding' it seems that this isn't true. It reduces the risk of being trapped but does not eliminate it.

The whole thing is just political theatre designed to give Brexiteers the opportunity to climb down and support May's deal. Whether that will happen remains to seen.

The right wing press has largely been supportive of May this morning but the ERG were scathing last night which doesn't bode well.

For May to pass the deal she needs the DUP to effectively trigger dominoes of support. If she fails to get that it's highly unlikely it will pass.

In order to pass the deal May needs an extra 116 votes compared to last time. This breaks down to roughly 10 DUP, 65 of the ERG, 4 Independents (Field/Hermon /Hopkins/Austin) and 40 Labour.

The Labour MPs won't go for it unless the numbers look tight and the DUP are on board.

We should get a feel for how things are going as the day goes on. I expect more negative comments on it to be expressed as the day goes on.

We might yet see some amendments and curveball thrown into the mix too. However none of those tabled so far this morning look likely to pass (Labour are yet to table anything)

The Cabinet meets at 9.30am. This will give us an idea of how it's played out there.

At 11.15am Barclay faces the Brexit select committee so some more scrutiny there.

The crucial moment is early afternoon before as May opens the debate on the Meaningful Vote. It is expected there will be an Urgent Question tabled to Cox the Attorney General to assess whether his legal advice that the backstop could be a trap, has changed. This is where thing will come into focus and we will get a good idea of whether the deal will pass or how heavy the defeat will be. How heavy it is, is important.

Word is that Cox said no to the validity of May’s 'legally binding assurances' last night and has been pretty much been sent away to 'think about it with a team of lawyers'. Cox has replied this is "Bollocks". But you do have to wonder if this is what May did in the Home Office with her ridiculous court cases and the A50 case. None of which went well for her in court in the end. However Cox did tell The Mail yesterday he would only change his legal advice if the risk of being trapped was 'eliminated' not merely reduced.

If its going badly a No10 damage limitation exercise will be in full swing by about 4pm.

If The Withdrawal Agreement fails by a small amount May might be able to try again. If it fails by a lot we really are into political chaos. May's position might be untenable if the Cabinet withdraw their support. If May stays that's not necessarily going to stave off even greater crisis.

Theresa May looks likely to go for an extension until 23rd May. The EU have more or less agreed to this. But this might be too short to get an alternative plan on the table. And May would be unlikely to be the person to do this anyway as it requires a huge uturn. The 23rd May date is crucial - if the UK doesn't make contingency plans to take part in European Elections its a cliff edge. A deadline of 23rd May is also too short for another referendum.

The only way we get a 2nd ref is to take the option of a longer extension which requires us to take part in European elections, and this is politically unpalatable to many Tories as it endangers Brexit completely.

This is what ERGers need to weigh up. Are they really committed to no deal. If they are not then the WA is perhaps the only way to stop no deal AND the possibility of no brexit.

However the chances of the legislation for European elections and a long extension getting through the Commons looks extremely unlikely too. But who knows where we will be come the end of April.

Thus if the WA fails then the chances of No Deal sky rocket, even if no deal is blocked by Parliament tomorrow. Unless those same MPs are prepared to vote for EP elections further down the line if need be. This might be the only way to truly block no deal. Has this dawned on Tory moderates? And that's what remain moderates and Labour MPs need to weigh up. I don't think the penny has dropped with many. Yet.

The trouble is that the WA problem is really with hardline ERG Tories not moderates nor Labour anyway.

Voting starts at 7pm.

Great gif of Emily Maitlis' exasperated side eye on tonight's Newsnight.

twitter.com/nickw84/status/1105606444672532481

It was spat down the phone with such venom!

I did try to explain businesses aren't going to risk their own livelihoods/families out of some moral code to a country who voted to shaft their trade

Operation Snow Bunting! Well, as the name suggests that's never going to work!

From the linked Snow Bunting article:
On Wednesday morning, the government will say what tariffs it will levy on food and goods, and how it will ensure the Northern Ireland border remains open – plans that had been deemed so sensitive that they had been kept secret until now.

Tomorrow should be interesting!

BREAKING:
Tory government.

Lonelyandtiredandlow yes tomorrow should indeed be interesting. On top of everything else, isn’t it supposed to be the Budget as well?

JPCampbellBiz@JP_Biz

I understand that tomorrow the UK government will effectively describe an ‘honesty box’ border for Northern Ireland in event of no deal.
.....
In other words the UK government does not intend to collect customs duties or have any other check or controls of any sort at the border.

Instead it will rely entirely on self-reporting by businesses.

Sounds very cross .....

GermanForeignOffice@GermanyDiplo

Foreign Minister @HeikoMaas on today's vote in the House of Commons:

we are moving closer towards a no-deal #brexit with this decision.

Rejecting the Brexit deal amounts to jeopardizing citizens' and economy's well-being

And so does EPP leader in EP:

Manfred Weber@ManfredWeber

Another disappointing result in the House of Commons.

We will not accept an extension if the government cannot deliver a positive majority on what it wants with #Brexit.

The #UK now has 2 weeks to provide clarity.

In the meantime the EU-27 is preparing for a worst-case scenario.

I have emailed my MP practically begging him to do whatever he can to stop no deal (he's a leaver Tory who voted against TM's deal on the first round and for it yesterday which I guess for a leaver Tory is a step in the right direction???). I worry that leaving without a deal is bring positioned by parts of the MSM as the new "will of the people."

I have beseeched my MP to reject no-deal, but he’s already stated publicly that he won’t.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
U.K. govt will shortly announce ‘no deal’ plan for @BorderIrish Understand it’s an open-door policy. So no tariffs into U.K.; legal smuggling bonanza and NI businesses defenceless (and no doubt being charged tariffs the other way). Can that situation last? No. So back to table.

We've talked about this before and how the 'honesty box' idea wouldn't work over the NI border because of paramilitary intimidation and smuggling. That's why May originally abandoned tech solutions as an option.

I don't think we will hear anything new on this front that we haven't previously discussed. The only difference will be its the government saying what we already know.

Roland Smith @rolandmcs
We are approaching an opportunity for Revoke.

e.g. UK can give no good reason to extend other than "we haven't decided". EU refuse extension and with almost no time left, HoC instructs Govt to revoke and Govt does so.

EU may then grant extension for law to catch up politics.

But so few days left by then, it could be a nailbiter between a successful Revoke or an accidental No Deal.

If revoked, "the EU will have saved Britain from itself".

Or "the EU will have crushed British democracy".

I'm not sure I agree but it's an opinion.

Both narratives will run for years.

amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/13/uk-military-mod-universities-research-psychological-warfare-documents?__twitter_impression=true
UK military turns to universities to research psychological warfare
Cambridge among partners shortlisted for £70m MoD funding, documents show

This is in no way related to Brexit.

Honest.

I understand that tomorrow the UK government will effectively describe an ‘honesty box’ border for Northern Ireland in event of no deal.
I was out last night with some friends, one is an elderly NI gentleman and he was regaling us with tales of cattle smuggling over the border not by him I may add and the people who used to register their cattle on both sides of the border in order to claim subsidies from both the UK and ROI. That was when there was a border in place. And that was just cattle. Can't see the giant cow sized hole in this plan at all

What if EU doesn't give us an extension? We are all assuming that E U will give us one. Assume means make an ass out of you and me. I try not to ass u me anything.

The Columnist @sime0nstylites
This is not the most likely but now a credible scenario. TM voting against No Deal today would be a signal

About the Roland Smith thread above.

I'm in agreement with the Columnist rather than Roland.

So if we don't get an extension its either no deal exit or revoke? Well 50/50 chance then...hope still lives then.

TMs soundbite "no deal is better than bad deal" which she knows is utter utter bollocks has really bitten her on the arse, hasn't it?

Soundbites.

Thats what politics is now.

(Also see: MAGA)

I was thinking about Revoke last night hence my question about whether she can still revoke unilaterally. She’s been threatening No Brexit for a bit. Am wondering whether No Deal vote goes through as does requesting an extension, EU says no to extension as no material change then she says basically we can’t have No Deal and will at end of the month so the choice is the WA MV3 or Revoke banking on the Bre interest all backing it rather than her revoking.

I'm still crazily hanging onto my original theory.

Civil servants sat down on June 24th and went 'right, we obviously can't let that happen so how do we do it without it being obvious'

They then wrote this hugely bizarre script, drafted Teresa in as the sacrificial lamb and enlisted the support of the MSM, Nissan and other players to add to their story.

This way the govt are seen to be following the result the whole way 'Brexit means Brexit' etc but in fact box everyone into a check mate corner in the end where they can shrug their shoulders and announce with deep sadness and regret they have no legal option other than revoke.

Wasn't there an ECJ ruling that UK can unilaterally revoke? My brain is fried.

As an observation, the 'foreigner's'* use of English is rather more carefully used, precise and accurate than the majority in the UK.
The MPs, cabinet and so many others are squirming around trying to make things opaque simply to dodge out of admitting it is a balls up and that there are no viable forward plans.
Has any MP been forced to answer the question of how the car workers in Sunderland and Oxford (BMW Mini) will be employed when Nissan and BMW close the plants?
On the basis that closure has been announced or strongly hinted at in about 4 years time, plans and infrastructure need to be going in now.

Is it the budget today?

{This way the govt are seen to be following the result the whole way 'Brexit means Brexit' etc but in fact box everyone into a check mate corner in the end where they can shrug their shoulders and announce with deep sadness and regret they have no legal option other than revoke.}

Unfortunately the real world has decided that the UK is not the place to be doing business so the likes of Nissan, Airbus, BMW, Honda a large chunk of the finance industry and others are moving out of the UK. Revoking won't make them come back now. In many respects the UK is over the cliff already and is on a ledge part way down, which is crumbling away as each day passes.

@67chevvyimpala

Yep, it's the budget today