Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

All of tonight was to appease ERG but also send a message that EU want WA passed and if that happens we get short extension?
Sorry, tired here too!

There will be no further interpretation of the interpretations": Juncker

This does not mean a warning that brexit won't happen its a warning there will be no more negotiations on the matter....take it or leave it.

red Voting down the WA might cause the extension to be vetoed by one or more members
but it's not a formal condition for an extension

However, if May gets another phonecall from Arlene / ERG and says these latest changes aren't enough,
then a veto is quite likely

Littlespaces - even though I made that statement about the hubris of most Leave/the Government/elements of British society, I'm not saying it is applicable to all of the UK - or even a majority However, like the ERG, it is such a strong and vocal element, it needs to have the fallacies of its self delusion exposed, to stop its ongoing poisoning of UK and European (and global) politics

I must point out that dh and I - and all most of my Remain voting friends are ourselves middle-aged (but in Scotland, so not surprising ) - and my dad is 82 and also a strong Remain voter. (As are most of his friends )

Seems to me all this is little more than a metaphorical mounting block to enable the ERG to climb down from their high horse without losing face.

All depends what the DUP make if it now.

He did say that Brexit might not happen explicitly. This is a reference to the length of extension available to us. In other words if we want a longer extension we have to do EP election and have a lengthy extension. Or we can only extend til 23rd May and then it's effectively no deal if we haven't got our arse in gear by then. The reality here being, no that the EU are being generous about being willing to extend at all but because they could really do with a little longer to prep for no deal.

Theresa May says it is the UK’s position that it believes it could unilaterally withdraw from the backstop
if negotiations with the EU on the future relationship were to break down.

< don't think so >

Starmer says the Labour party will reject the deal and he believes the House of Commons will do the same.

Ladbrokes now offering 7/2 on WA approved and 1/6 on WA rejected.

So if I've understood it correctly, May is hanging her hat on her belief conviction that by securing an independent arbitration to the ability to withdraw from the backstop, whoever is overseeing the independent arbitration will automatically take the UK's side

So yet another variation of "Don't they know who we are?"

Sorry, I'm a coward...

Songs that’s just sensible, not cowardly. I live in a Leave voting area and made DH remove the the EU flag he’d put in our window. I also kept my jacket done up, hiding my ‘In Varitate Concordia’ tee-shirt until I was well on the way to St Pancras for the last March.

I am,however, very sad the climate in this country is such that I feel this is the sensible and necessary thing to do.

Meanwhile, David Allen Green is getting a bit cross.

Let this be put in plain terms.

You cannot have a "unilateral" interpretation of a bilateral text.

It makes no sense. It is meaningless. It is illogical. It is oxymoronic. It is moronic.

And it certainly is not "legally binding".

My thoughts exactly prettybird - we take the agreement to an International court and they rule against us.

Yes, it's not legally binding, but the whole thing was a show to confirm a short extension if WA is passed, no?

Another Tory Remainer MPs shares the opinion that the UK should be able to unilaterally exit the backstop,
i.e. not a backstop and sod the GFA

(like Nicky Morgan: it's about the backstop)

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Bad news for the PM. The remainers aren't budging.

And if other MPs agree with Collins that an arbitration panel does not a unilateral exit make (correct) then she's sunk.

Damian Collinss@DamianCollins*

1. I will be voting against the government’s motion on EU withdrawal tomorrow.

Nothing has really changed since last November.
We have the power to apply to an arbitration panel to leave the back stop, but not the right to leave by ourselves.

< that's because it's a backstop, you fuckwit >

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-47521926

The San Francisco mayor has apologised for the "pain" caused by a posthumous award honouring Martin McGuinness' "courageous service in the military".

This award looks like a shot across the bows of the UK by the United Irish Societies of San Francisco: Martin McGuinness selected for what is essentially a symbolic Freedom of the City award in connection with St Patrick's Day.

In a statement, Ms [Mayor] Breed explained that Mr McGuinness had been selected as one of five Grand Marshalls for the award, which is the equivalent to freedom of the city.

"As part of San Francisco's annual St Patrick's Day festivities, the Mayor of San Francisco has traditionally provided Certificates of Honor to the Honorary Grand Marshalls selected by the United Irish Societies of San Francisco," she said.

"San Francisco values means respect for the democratic process and non-violent political actions.

"The language on the Certificate of Honor should have taken more care to apply these values when reflecting the history of Mr McGuinness's life towards peacemaker and his role in the peace process that resulted in the Good Friday Agreement."

Ms Breed said she apologised for "the pain this certificate has caused".

But the award still stands and actually the Mayor is insisting on pointing out McGuiness' role in the peace process, in the teeth of an outcry from the DUP and victim s of bombings, which underlines the importance of the GFA to the Irish societies of San Francisco, which I would say are a fair representation of Irish opinion (this includes the opinion of second and third generation Americans, and more) in the Bay Area.

While I can understand that relatives of victims of IRA bombings could hold the views they hold on McGuinness and the IRA, it is indisputable that he contributed massively to the peace process and also that there is a massive amount of hypocrisy on the part of the DUP, a political party with a paramilitary wing that contributed its fair share of victims to the toll in NI.

Also indisputable is the fact that Her Majesty the Queen shook hands with McGuinness not that long ago. If he was good enough for her then he should be good enough for the DUP.

Banging the old 'whiter than white' drum is what the DUP do best of course.

A Sinn Féin spokesman said the San Francisco award is a "welcome recognition of the life and legacy of Martin McGuinness".

"Martin McGuinness made a colossal contribution to the peace process, Irish unity and reconciliation.

"His remarkable life and legacy has been celebrated and recognised across the world," the spokesman said.

SF obviously focusing on the peace process too, and reminding the DUP that people around the world may have a different view of Northern Ireland and the rights and wrongs thereof than Arlene Foster does.

Overall, this is a statement in bold neon that the Irish in the US are paying close attention to NI and to Brexit and that the implications for the GFA are very well understood.

The implication is that Irish concern wrt NI might have an impact on trade talks.

It might be a wise idea to keep any EU garb that you have, particularly something like a small pin or button that is practical to wear if you want / need to go to an EU country post a no-deal Brexit.

There aren't any hostile feeling towards Brits in the EU as far as I have seen. I don't think people travelling in the EU will face any issues, unless they start shouting 'down with the EU' of course.

How would EU country travellers to the UK be treated?

Can't sleep.

Interesting timing indeed math. The cynic in me says this is why Fox met USA several weeks ago (knowing the backstop issue hadn't gone for ERG). Of course the ban on FOI of those meetings for 4 yrs means USA won't be publicly held to any suggestions of trade they may have discussed - that lack of public scrutiny works both ways Fox might do well to remember.

I think because there is such a friable atmosphere in the UK, people think it is also all over the other countries of the EU.

This is not contagious to the other countries of the EU. People I have met are more likely to snigger or just be amazed at the factions of the UK politically. I suppose it is interesting how the Russians seem to have infiltrated the UK political system. One could ask if McVey and many others are in receipt of anything. Even a promise. Just a question, not a statement. Otherwise why be such a provocateur. Lies which you just get out there on the internet and then quietly take away when the it has done it's job.

It feels unjust that all those double agents and spies had to go live in Russia. When in just a few short decades they might have been able to rule the country and possible get monetary rewards. And nobody even bothered. Just a speculation. All allegedly and all that. Pravda rules.

Don't forget, some other EU countries are benefiting as a number of businesses relocate.

I'd be much more concerned for EU nationals in the UK.

DUP..........'We note the prime minister’s latest statement and update on our EU exit negotiations. These publications need careful analysis. We will be taking appropriate advice, scrutinising the text line by line and forming our own judgment.

We will measure this latest text against the Brady amendment, and the commitments made by the prime minister of 29 January.'

From the Guardian........'All eyes will, naturally, be on the Brexiters who voted down May’s deal in January and whose minds she needs to change before the second meaningful vote comes before the House of Commons on Tuesday (unless of course it gets postponed again – always a possibility with this government). Will they find enough in the new language May extracted from the EU to switch sides and endorse her withdrawal agreement? The early signals were mixed, even from within the hardline European Research Group: the faction’s leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, made emollient noises about steps in the right direction; his deputy, Steve Baker, said May’s concessions fell short.

On the face of it, Baker’s view seems the more compelling. Think of what the ERG and the Democratic Unionists object to about the key stumbling block: the Northern Irish backstop, the insurance policy designed to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. They don’t like the fact that it has no time limit, that it could, theoretically, go on forever. And yet the best that May’s new motion laid before parliament could say is that the new legally binding joint instrument “reduces the risk that the UK could be held in the Northern Ireland backstop indefinitely”. “Reduces the risk” is not the same as “eliminates the risk” – and it’s that that many of those Brexiters wanted to hear. (Put aside the fact that it was always an unrealistic demand: you could say the same about the entire case for Brexit.)

A second demand of the Brexiters, one bizarrely endorsed in January by May herself and a majority of the Commons, was that the backstop be replaced by “alternative arrangements.” Gamely, May tried to pretend that she’d won an EU concession on that too, and that those alternative arrangements will be in place by December 2020. As indeed they will – if they exist by then. But for now, the technological wizardry so great that it would render the backstop redundant does not exist. And so this was another hollow victory.

Finally, the Brexit crowd wanted the UK to have the unilateral right to exit the backstop whenever it liked. May did indeed get something unilateral – the right to issue her own unilateral declaration, in which she could freely state that “it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop.” This is rather like my son winning the right to declare that it is his position that he should get more pocket money. It doesn’t mean I’ve agreed to give him more pocket money. The clue is in the word “unilateral.” The EU is not bound by this UK declaration and has, in fact, conceded nothing........'

BCF has a perfect right to express her opinion and others have a right to disagree, but criticism verging on ad hominem attacks isn’t really in the spirit these threads have cultivated over the many months since they started.

This from William Hague....
As human beings, we have a natural tendency to blame others for landing us in a mess. And now, with British politics on the verge of the most complex, intractable, emotional and all-consuming muddle since the Civil War, preparations to blame everybody else are in full swing.

If Brexit doesn’t happen on March 29, disappointing or enraging the 17 million people who voted for it, blame will be flung everywhere. Leavers will blame Remainers for undermining negotiations and Remainers will blame Leavers for not taking the deal in front of them. Many will blame the Irish for taking a hard line, and the EU in general for being so intransigent. Tories will blame each other for not uniting, and virtually everyone will blame Theresa May for not finding the genius solution.

Unfortunately, there will be some truth in all of this, giving scope for all sides to whip up resentment and stoke division. For anyone who wants to hate the Establishment, or despise the majority, or split a party, or just rubbish their opponents, it will be a field day like no other.

There will be more reasons than ever not to listen to each other. Instead we will all revel in the reinforcement of our existing opinions and know that we were totally right but disgracefully let down.

In any forthcoming general election or second referendum – and the chances of one or both happening are higher than many people think – our great democracy will have entered the age of the angry crowd, the abusive tweet and the violent incident.

This will be a tragedy in a country hitherto known throughout the world for its free speech, tolerance of different opinions and its disdain for extremism.

While we cannot know for sure what will happen if Mrs May cannot get a deal through the House of Commons in the coming days, we do know that every alternative course of action will exacerbate that national slide into intensified bitterness. A delay to Brexit – which is the most likely consequence of her impending defeat – will extend the argument and the uncertainty for longer. Eventually that would lead either to a more acrimonious split from the EU, or to staying in it after all. These are outcomes that will destroy an otherwise sensible government in the short term but poison our politics for the long term.

Yes he's right. I agree with a lot of this statement.

borntobequiet have I missed something?