Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

chevvy 💐
Research has proved that chocolate is as effective at soothing sore throats as over-the-counter meds.
You have to suck each square slowly

peregrina imo the power of the Irish-American Caucus in the US Congress would be critical after Brexit,
because in the US, Congress has to pass trade deals .... or can block them

I expect they would demand an NI-only backstop, so the GFA would be protected,
while US agribusiness is free to export what it wants into GB - but not NI

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

The PM has about 24 hours to persuade 73 Conservative MPs, 33 Labour and 10 DUP to switch their votes

That's about 10 mins each with no sleep.

Research has proved that chocolate is as effective at soothing sore throats as over-the-counter meds.

It's also very good for stress...that's my excuse anyway.

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/chocolate-reduce-stress-inflammation-cacao-research-a8328651.html

On it bigchoc 🍫

To be on the front line checking plant health and seeds, you can actually earn exactly the same amount as an Assistant Manager at MacDonalds (£23k) but with a job description that reads:
^In accordance with guidelines governing security, you will be expected to have the necessary CTC/SC security clearance for the work of the post. This process will be initiated if you are successful in your application for this post. Candidates will be required to provide documentation to confirm their identity, driving licence and address at interview.

The successful candidate will need to comply with a number of health protocols and wear protective clothing and Respiratory Personal Protective Equipment (RPPE) as required.

You may be required to work at other locations, or overseas for short periods of time, so candidates must be prepared to work and stay away from home to meet business needs. Further out of hours work may be required in the event of an incident. Out of hours work, and some shift work may be required – but this will be discussed and agreed with your line manager if successful. ^

I'm even more concerned about disease outbreaks and the real threat to public health looking at this.

Mistakenly tuned into LBC and listened to precisely 5 mins of Nigel Farage. According to one caller the whole country wants TM to tell juncker where to get off and increasingly wants no deal now. Much frothing about the rudeness of the Eu and how because of it we are all now gelling together behind Brexit ! Who knew ! It’s an alternative universe

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
So it appear there are to be two statements - a joint one and a unilateral UK one setting out the conditions on which the UK would consider the backstop should come to an end.

I guess Q is how many that would reassure beyong @SteveBakerHW and core ERG rump of 20? /1

Per @Mij_Europe tweet maybe this is about shaving down the numbers; isolating the diehards, not total victory...but... /2

Mujtaba Rahman @Mij_Europe
Still, if May cuts margin of defeat from 230 to under 50, she might be on track to win third meaningful vote after further tweaks at March #EUCO. Senior UK officials adamant May "wouldn't travel for nothing." But EU side more cautious #Brexit

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Doesn't change the fundamental issue, which is the UK parliament cannot reach a stable majority on the future relationship - which is critical as to whether the backstop is ever used.

In short, the customs union nettle has not been grasped, which is the root of all this. /3

All May's attempts to scare this deal over the line, or to hoodwink clean-break Brexiteers into voting for it have failed.

And will contine to fail until we go back to the drawing board and ask what relationship we need to square the demands of Brexit with the demands GFA /4

May's deal arguable does this - delviering free movement curbs and host of other freedoms while keeping trade links as needed to deliver on the border.

The ERG has made it axiomatic that #Brexit means leaving the customs union.

But why? This is a minority view. /5

The economic case for doing so is pitifully weak, and holding entire process to ransom.

I'm not going to rehearse arguments in full. See here /6

previous thread by Peter Foster

May original sin in this entire negotiation was not to confront these issues.

To create space for all sides to make arguments for and against.

#Brexit was voted on by the entire country, and in my view that vote should be respected /7

But it cannot happen until there is a stable political environment and everyone stops lying/pretending.

If the deal falls becuase of the ERG blocking minority, then lets have another deal; or a pause for a General Election to let someone else have a go. /8

But it cannot happen until there is a stable political environment and everyone stops lying/pretending.

This is why the EU are sitting on their hands.

They don't see the UK going for a 'no deal' or Mrs May's deal passing in current form.

And if it did, then we'll be having same fight in a few months when trade talks begin. /9

The only hope is that this week is the start of a confrontation with reality.

I'm not holding my breath. 10/Ends

Yeah, quite a few brown shirts on there, esp the caller who just said TM should dissolve parliament... how dare they ever talk about democracy!

On NF show I meant...

Andrew Sentance**@asentance

BBC now reporting that Theresa May seeking #Brexit delay until 24 May
.....


Ian Dunt@IanDunt

That is a very interesting date.
It is one day after the European elections start.
......
If confirmed, it would substantiate my view of her strategy outlined here

May's Article 50 extension is a trick to take us to the real cliff edge

Good analysis

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/26/may-s-article-50-extension-is-a-trick-to-take-us-to-the-real

The prime minister was as misleading and cynical as ever, even in retreat.
She just cannot help it.
It is part of the programming.
......
No-one mentioned, incidentally, the nightmare scenario:
If MPs voted against no-deal and Article 50 extension.

They are perfectly stupid and cowardly enough to do so.
That terrible potentiality just sort of hung in the air, unspoken.
....

That's that.
she wants to push it past the elections, to the point Article 50 can't be extended anymore,
and then present MPs with her deal vs no-deal again, having wiped out the alternatives.

Faisal Islam
✔
@faisalislam
Meanwhile, Govt just published “Category 1 products” list “critical to preservation of human or animal welfare and/ or national security for UK” for which importers can apply for tickets on No Deal Brexit emergency ferries - medicines, medical devices, blood, organs, vaccines...

93
5:55 PM - Mar 11, 2019
(NB my use of bold below)
Items on the list of Category 1 Goods which are eligible to be carried on the additional ferry service include:

• Human medicines, covering prescription-only, pharmacy and general sales list medicines, clinical trials and children's vitamins;

• Medical devices and clinical consumables;

• Vaccines;

• Nutritional specialist feeds, including infant milk formula;

• Biological materials such as blood, organs, tissues and cells;

• All veterinary medicines authorised under the Veterinary Medicines Regulation and unauthorised veterinary medicines covered by a Special Import Scheme;

• Critical chemicals or consumables used within the energy sector.

Ian Dunt:

Once we go past May without holding elections, the cliff edge becomes immovable.

And then, finally, with all options exhausted, MPs will have to fall in line with her deal or else topple into the abyss.

That is how she checkmates her opponents.
That's the plan.

It is perfectly visible now.
Anyone can see it.
But no-one is stopping her.

There is only one way to do so: Insist that Britain takes part in the European elections.
That means passing the legislation to do so at the point of extending Article 50.
Anything else leaves us at her mercy.

lonelyandtired That's hopefully an emergency ferry service with ships, not rubber ducks

Oh fuck. That looks horribly plausible as May's plan. Who could pursue the idea of putting up that legislation about the EU elections?

Big I was wondering why Grayling hasn't been distracting from the shambles with this magical extra ferry service he's figured out...

And harking back to an earlier post: Cameron on ITV news "doesn't think no deal is a good idea at all". Well, Dave, I can think of something else that wasn't a good idea at all. ANY GUESSES?

OK. I take it back.

TM - Dictator.

New level of stupidity noted. Recently signed up to something called "Nextdoor" as a community/local networking group. Yesterday someone posted this message. Apparently they only need 4 more people - 'cos its REALLY REALLY CHEAP!

skiing
I'm looking for 8 others to go skiing to Val Thorens. In France in a great chalet with all amenities on a self catering basis. On 30 th March 2019 For £350.00, which includes flights from Gatwick and transfers.the chalet is 5 mins from the lift and you can ski back to the front door. If you want boots and skis i can get a discount off the hire.
Contact me if you're interested. It is really, really cheap.

Gavan Reilly@gavreilly

If there IS an EU-UK agreement this evening, choreography for Ireland will be the hardest of Brexit so far.

It can't shoot down anything that helps prevent no-deal, nor can it offer substantive concessions on backstop...

but any "we're happy" is antagonism to zero-sum Brexiteers

Just now

Ian Dunt
‏*****@IanDunt***

One of the greatest mysteries of Brexit is exactly what strategy Nicky Morgan is pursuing. I'll be fucked if I can make sense of it.

Nicky Morgan MP
‏****@NickyMorgan01

You could just ask me?

Ian Dunt
‏*****@IanDunt***

With pleasure. Exactly what strategy are you pursuing?

Nicky Morgan MP
‏****@NickyMorgan01

To get the Withdrawal Agreement approved & for the U.K. to leave the EU on 29th March with that agreement in place.

Ian Dunt
‏*****@IanDunt***

Really? How odd. The withdrawal agreement contains the backstop. But from January 28th onwards you supported the Malthouse Compromise, which envisaged replacing it.

Nicky Morgan MP
‏****@NickyMorgan01

A Withdrawal Agreement with a different means of avoiding a hard border on island of Ireland is still a Withdrawal Agreement which is approved means we leave EU on 29th March with an agreement in place

Ian Dunt
‏*****@IanDunt***

Ah so not the withdrawal agreement, but a withdrawal agreement. Is your preference still to use 'technological alternatives' to avoid a border?

Nicky Morgan MP
‏****@NickyMorgan01

There are alternatives, yes. They rely on existing processes. If you really want to get down to lawyerly semantics (which I did for 16 years before being elected) - then what the Government and EU agree becomes 'the' Withdrawal Agreement

Ian Dunt
‏*****@IanDunt***

Let's just go ahead and presume that 'the' withdrawal agreement is the one that actually exists. Are you able to name a single customs border in the world in which there are no checks?

And then it went all quiet. Always good to read the comments anyway.

twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1105130819381854208

Surely someone (Yvette Cooper?) will be clever enough to see the snaffoo and put in an amendment saying if we are still members of the EU on the 23rd of May then we have to vote in the elections. Surely - out of 650 of them - someone is clever enough to realise her trap.

Bruno Waterfield @ brunobrussels
So 3 parts to deal tonight but only 1obstacle
^Two parts done: joint interpretative instrument, new legal assurances on arbitration/best endeavours added to withdrawal agreement/lodged with UN And addition to the political declaration
Outstanding is a "unilateral UK statement"^

Unilateral statement is a government recommendation to MPs that it has assurances it needs for meaningful vote #2. To form basis of new legal advice from attorney general. Not negotiated with EU but needs to be given green light

Expecting May statement at 11pm (10pm UK). If it's a deal all to be published for 11.30pm (10.30 UK)

If, IF, it all goes well, then there is the vote tomorrow... followed by #EUCO next week. If the vote doesn't go well then most on the EU side expect a serious political crisis in UK

I note here that Bruno Waterfield and Peter Foster have been the two best journalists from the EU side more or less throughout. They are both extremely grim tonight.

In response to this thread here's David Allen Green

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
If correct, of no real legal substance.

Notwithstanding all the poltical excitement.

No idea what will come out tonight.

But what cannot come out tonight:

1. Shift in EU27 position, as that is set by EU Council.

2. Shift in what European Parliament would accept (as it has veto) as that set by resolution.

Also unlikely is unilateral shift by UK on red lines.

On the basis of the political commentary of lobby journalists, just looks like legal sleights of hand on offer.

Nothing of any substance, but nicely spun and briefed otherwise.

All the political excitement has been on the UK side. Largely from journalists who rarely know the difference between something politically significant and something legally significant.

It's hard to see this making any difference if it's not legally binding plus I don't know that the ERG would go for it even then.

Part of the problem comes back to no one trusting May. With good reason on the basis of her previous behaviour.

That suggests major political crisis. An extension until May 24th might not solve a lot. Especially if there is an attempt to remove May (its also why we are unlikely to see resignations this week even from ministers who vote against May I suspect)

It's getting very messy indeed.

Surely someone (Yvette Cooper?) will be clever enough to see the snaffoo and put in an amendment saying if we are still members of the EU on the 23rd of May then we have to vote in the elections. Surely - out of 650 of them - someone is clever enough to realise her trap.

The UK needs to pass legislation through the HoC to enable EU elections by around the 1st May. Otherwise we won't be organised enough to hold them.