Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

@ElenadeClermont , I suspect that Michael Gove has spotted chickens coming home to roost.

I've only been out for two hours, have I missed something again?
argh.

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
Brexit latest:

* Ministers think PM's deal will be defeated by 200 votes

* One said: 'We're a long way up shit creek, never mind a paddle we don't have a boat'

* No 10 has barred ministers from airwaves

* Some think conditional vote could become resigning issue for PM

PM was due make statement to the House at 3.30

Stephen Barclay will now be speaking in her place. He's still in No 10

Ministers concerned a conditional vote on the PM's deal falls so far short of her pledge to hold a meaningful vote she could be in 'resignation territory'

Sophy Ridge @sophyridgesky
Lots of chatter about whether PM is facing a “resignation issue”.... but of course, because she can’t face a leadership challenge for a year, the only person who decides that is her

Andrew Marr @ andrewmarr9
This technically true; but no PM could carry on if the cabinet said, sorry... No?

Nick Boles MP @@nickboles
Hansard 26 Feb 2019 Volume 655 Prime Minister: “So today I want to reassure the House by making three further commitments. First, we will hold a second meaningful vote by Tue 12 March at the latest. 1/

Secondly, if the Government have not won a meaningful vote by Tue 12 March, then they will, in addition to their obligations to table a neutral, amendable motion under section 13 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, table a motion to be voted on by Wed 13 March... 2/

at the latest, asking this House if it supports leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement and a framework for a future relationship on 29 March. So the UK will only leave without a deal on 29 March if there is explicit consent in this House for that outcome. 3/

Thirdly, if the House, having rejected leaving with the deal negotiated with the EU, then rejects leaving on 29 March without a withdrawal agreement and future framework, the Government will.. 4/

on 14 March, bring forward a motion on whether Parliament wants to seek a short, limited extension to article 50 and, if the House votes for an extension, seek to agree that extension approved by the House with the EU and bring forward... 5/

the necessary legislation to change the exit date commensurate with that extension. These commitments all fit the timescale set out in the private Member’s Bill in the name of the right hon. Member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper). 6/

They are commitments I am making as Prime Minister, and I will stick by them, as I have previous commitments to make statements and table amendable motions by specific dates.” 7/

I am sure that the Prime Minister will honour these three commitments. If she doesn’t she will forfeit the confidence of the House of Commons.

This after talk of a parallel government...

Jon Sopel @ bbcjonsopel
That sounds like a threat and a promise...

In response to Nick Boles

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/10/sam-gyimah-theresa-may-brexit-article-50-extension?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
This is like Iraq all over again – we must extend article 50
Sam Gyimah
I resigned over the PM’s handling of Brexit, but the situation has only worsened. Britain needs more time

Although my dad (former farmer - got an agricultural degree in South Africa as the intention had been for him to take over his dad's farm, before giving it to his db and coming to the UK to get his medical degree) was saying on Saturday that it is obvious that Gove doesn't have a clue about farming well, we knew that much even though he does seem to be making a better fist of his current role than previous ones/other cabinet ministers not a very high bar

He singled out his comment about "farmers just needing to diversify so that the UK can grow all its own fruit and veg" for ridicule and pointed out that the UK population no longer wants to eat turnips in winter dad considers turnips, neeps and even butternut squash to be cattle feed

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
Written statement from PM later today

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
Yvette Cooper has said she and Conservative MPs would attempt to force votes on an extension of Article 50 on Thursday should the prime minister pull the votes, saying it would be a "straight up lie" to parliament if May changed her plans

@YvetteCooperMP says she also expects May to offer detail on what extension would mean, or she and others will be looking at new amendments to set the timetable - "That is when we will be looking at possible amendments... to make sure you can get indicative votes."

My head is melting. This week is going to be intense.

4 minutes ago

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
BREAKING: Downing Street says Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal WILL go ahead tomorrow evening, but we’ll have to wait until tonight to see the motion MPs will actually be voting on. Sounds like the devil will be in the detail.

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov
Downing Street insisting a Meaningful Vote will go ahead tomorrow but being very cagey about what that vote will look like. May's spokesman repeatedly refusing to rule out that it will actually be a provisional vote.

So MPs will have to make a decision about amendments today. I expect May to table her wording as late as possible to head off pesky amendments

In other words expect this afternoon to be busy and there to be lots of words flying about and a hell of a lot of speculation.

I'll try and do dumps of the latest throughout the afternoon in lumps as I'm fairly up to my neck today so can't keep up a steady stream.

Question: What would you do now if you were PM?

I have no idea. I know I'd like her to say,' fuckit, this is so stupid, let's remain and get our shit together'. But that's not going to happen.

I suppose with global environment change you could grow bananas and oranges in Scotland in 50 years time. Maybe that is what Mogg was on about?

Revoke and resign. That's the honourable thing to do.

If it were me I would revoke and resign.

PMK

EU - views on extension

openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/under-which-conditions-would-the-eu27-agree-to-an-article-50-extension/

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar
NEW: PM's official spokesman confirms meaningful vote WILL go ahead tomorrow as planned. But remains tight-lipped about exactly what they'll be voting on. "I seriously caution against speculating what this motion will look like”

Downing Street also says the PM still intends to hold votes on No Deal Brexit and a delay later in the week. “The PM’s commitment that was given at the despatch box still holds,” her spokesman said.

PM had phone calls with EIGHT EU leaders over the weekend - including Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron - and also Jean-Claude Juncker last night. But still no breakthrough. Talks are ongoing, but not at political level and even senior UK officials aren't there.

It does seem, well, surprising that even No 10 officials don't seem to know what's going on, just hours before the Government has to table its motion. 😳

Well that should make you all feel better if you don't know what's going on.

You are not alone.

Neither does No. 10, MPs, journalists and probably Mrs May herself.

Tbh I don’t think the U.K. needs more time as such. It needs to start looking for another solution and stop being so entrenched its position.

Basically what it needs to do is something that it has never done. negotiating and arriving at a compromise that will work for ALL parties, Leavers and I really dont think the UK shouod stay in the EU.
Revoke isn’t going to work when about half of the population and half of the MPs are against it.
No Deal is, thanksfully, a no-no for most.
Leavers still can’t manage to agree on what a good deal looks like (That is NOT unicorns).

But until all this politics can actually put aside their differences between labour/conservatives (I can’t possibly vote for something supported by The opposition type of attitude) or between Remain/Leave (Both if which are dreaming if unicorns) the situation isn’t going to improve.
BECAUSE the country is divided right in the middle! There is no majority for either project.

The real question will ‘what will pushing Brexit day back’ achieve? Apart dom a short reprieve from a No Deal no one wants? The U.K. can’t do that again and again. It cant afford to have brexit at the centre stage for much longer. It has many other issues it really has to tackle (incl the NHS, education, transport, benefits etc etc) and dithering around just damage the economy again and again..
It’s time to take a decision. Whatever the. decision. Because I’m starting to think anything will be better than the limbo we are in atm.

That's the problem with being forced to write things down for the HoC , as she was then: there is a record
All her waffling random speeches can't disguise it if she breaks her word

Lying to the HoC is still supposed to be the one thing that forces a minister to resign
So a PM would likely be under huge pressure, because she would have lost the confidence of the HoC

• hence NC

This comment, after RT Nick Boles,
makes it clear that the PM risks an NC vote if she goes back on her word to the HoC:

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Senior Tory MP suggests May will lose a no confidence vote in her Govt this week if she pulls the MV tomorrow
- with his help?

Ah, Hansard wrote down what May said
So it will be very obvious if she breaks her word to the HoC

WARNING:
I'm sure some E27 members would be tempted to do this, but I won't believe UK media "EU scoops" until I see it in the serious German & French media:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/eu-prepares-demand-multi-billion-pound-increase-divorce-payment/

The EU is preparing to impose punitive conditions on Britain as its price for agreeing a Brexitt* delay if Theresa May is forced to ask for an extension this week.

Member states are “hardening” their attitudes towards a delay and will demand “legal and financial conditions”
including a multi-billion pound increase to the £39bn divorce payment.

Let's face it - none of us would have got into this situation where a last minute revoke and resign is the best option...... we wouldn't have actually triggered article 50 in such haste

They may simply be referring to the fact that if the UK remains longer in the EU, then its regular membership payments continue for longer