Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Theresa May was asked by Peter Walker of The Guardian how much personal responsibility she took for the fact that we are in the current uncertain situation.

Answer was "Waffle, waffle, waffle, Government has worked hard, EU had a choice, waffle, waffle, waffle"

That'll be a No then

John Pienaar and a guy from Bloomberg then ask the same question from different angles.

She gives the same answer of waffle both times, blaming the MPs and the EU and the third time complains that it is the third time she has answered the question.

Well, if you'd bloody answered the question, love, people wouldn't have to keep asking the same question

Theresa May is set to tell the EU it "has to make a choice" on Brexit

Oh for Fffffs. After three years of us not knowing what choice 'the ( misinformed) people' are supposed to have made, it's now the EU that has a choice to make?

😡😡😡

The "choice" was made when Tusk blew the doors of with his statement.

Meanwhile, seems BNP Paribas have gone down ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/03/08/sacr_bleu_bnp_paribas_down_across_france_for_more_than_24_hours/

May and the Cabinet already starting the blame game.
Not good - they expect it to be needed by EOM

Robert Pestonn@Peston*

The cabinet is getting its recriminations in early for the expected flop of the UK’s Brexit deal:

“it’s the EU’s fault”. Who else?

https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2292870834370982/
......
And in response to what I’ve just written, a member of the cabinet tells me - of EU negotiators -

“when we are clear what’s needed to get this over the line, if they choose not to give that, they are choosing to fail”.

So there you have it, nutshelled.
The PM is now dug in...

Meanwhile TM has "warned that if MPs reject her Brexit deal next week “no one knows what will happen” and that the UK may never leave the EU at all."

She could have said may not leave the EU right now...it would be more unifying to say that. (Not that anyone in govt's trying to unify.)

indi

James Patrick@J_amesp

Just FYI:

May saying “we may never leave at all,” isn’t her saying Brexit is off.

It’s there to generate the rage required to justify no deal when her deal fails a second time.

Surely everyone on HoC now understands that Brexit WILL come, it's just it is No Deal or her WA.

Pretending it will never come seems to be fantasy now, unless you think EU will give a longer extension which no one in their right minds would agree to and then it may be kicked into the long grass if you want to imagine the Brexiteers would ever allow this in a million years. So, hardly likely we won't Brexit all things considered. Just wondering why she felt the need to add that sentence in; as a barely veiled threat for ERG who would probably rather we No Deal?

X post Big yes, that is what I suspected. Blame game once more.

Having a bit of a full on day here. My backup plan that I had thought was shot down in flames appears to be re-igniting. I'm now choosing whether to emigrate once more. Lots to consider and feeling rushed as I have no idea what sterling will look like in a few months when I may be more dependant on selling assets...Choosing between whether staying put and riding it out is better than changing everything.

If I'm honest with myself though I don't see it as "riding it out" I see it as adapting to a country with an interest in a race to the bottom for all sectors. I feel unsure as to my daughter's education - will her school be closed for months due to Kent traffic? Will they legally have to shut down if food gets so expensive they cannot provide it? More to the point, I don't want her growing up in an introverted country rather than a global competitor. For me it is an opportunity to start on a new course, but it has risks and my current work from home lifestyle won't be possible. How much longer that would be sustainable in UK with the general price increases is debatable anyway... The only big pull to stay is my dad, who has a great bond with dd. He doesn't travel well and v. unlikely to sell off his assets to join us.

Sorry, rambling out loud on here. It's tough thinking through it all as a single parent (particularly when I talk to leaver friend who thinks i'm bonkers to give it all up/doesn't have a clue how things will change).

To quote Michel Barnier from a while back

We know what needs to be done. We just do not know how to get re elected after we have done it

So, Mrs May is flouncing out of the club and has snagged her dress in the door and is blaming the club for having a door.

I know I am way behind- but just about the HO and the commonwealth veterans and the huge fees. Indefinite leave to remain - is not what it says on the tin. When I got indefinite leave they gave you 5 years . In that time you can apply for citizenship or just go through the process again in 5 years time..... accept - my sister (also married to a Brit) applied quite a while after me - they had changed the rules about eligibility. She only got 3 years.
So if your retired and having to find that - £2.5k every 3 years...... but then if your retired I am not sure how you would qualify....
Anyway my point is everyone (well everyone I talked to ) believes that indefinite leave means you can stay here forever. It doesn't. And the home office are continually changing the rules.

I heard of an EU citizen applying for settled status who was asked to supply a paper copy of every parking ticket she had ever received in the time she has lived here.....

Mrslaughan
If you have an ILR stamp in your passport it means exactly that and there is nothing the UK Govt can do about it.
But they stopped issuing them after 2010
and not everybody realises that the one in the expired passport is still valid.
Newer arrivals get the shitty visas
but old school economic migrants like me keep our ILR
I happen to have a UK passport as well now, but the ILR in my blue one means I can call in the marines if I need to

I heard of an EU citizen applying for settled status who was asked to supply a paper copy of every parking ticket she had ever received in the time she has lived here.....

Please tell me this is not verified. For God's sake what's wrong with us?

I went through the whole permanent residence card + naturalisation faff last year and honestly can't remember being asked for that. In fact it says somewhere specifically that the 'good character' criterion is not affected by things like parking tickets. You do have to disclose cautions though.

Please tell me this is not verified. For God's sake what's wrong with us? I am ashamed and embarrassed by the people that we have become. It is driven by the venality, opacity, greed, lack of accountability, deceit and corruption coming from the top. That's Theresa May, by the way. I cannot forgive her for the mess she has made - and she has the gall to come out with a message about Christianity and faith for the start of Lent. And most of her Cabinet appear to be as bad.

Collectively as a country I feel we have given up hope in our politicians for Lent. Actually many of us have given up on that for some time now...

The parking tickets - It was a good friends friend / so very reliable...,,, we were trading horror stories if dealing with the HO. It was what a friend had just bed. Asked for. She has lived here 15 years. Tbh I wasn't surprised, because of the shit that was pulled during our citizenship process /application. With even my husband having to prove his citizenship- and his passport was not enough.

So I arrived after the change then (arrived 2010) or got my ILR after that date, as to start I had residency based on marriage. My point was - they still call it ILR - but you do have to renew it, and the fees are huge.

After decades here, her rhetoric was the first time I felt rejected by this country. It was an existential crisis and it really took a lot of reflection on what my identity actually was before I could make the positive choice to stay. My conclusion however was that there was no way on earth I was willing to stay on as a foreigner. That point was driven home very clearly.

I think when you deal with the HO it really does depend who ends up with you "case".
But yes Theresa May has a huge amount to answer for, and had decided years ago that she has to be racist.

TiP That quote "We know what needs to be done. We just do not know how to get re elected after we have done it"
was by Juncker

Barnier is much more diplomatic

Yes @Songsofexperience - I realised my children were growing up British and although I abhor the "little England" attitude, if something was to happen to my husband, without citizenship I may be kicked out.

Being here during the referendum was not pleasant.....and I am white of British descent!!!! If you were European it would have been unbearable!

“it’s the EU’s fault”

Not news, really. This is what MN Leavers have been saying, with increasing frequency and fervour, since about July 2016. Some of the cabinet are probably MNers - it's a big demographic to be courted.

I enjoy speculating which politicians are which MNers. TM the shameless xenophobe, Raab the bombastic ignoramus, Grayling the incompetent fool, Johnson the amoral attention-seeker...

But the "Shocked Brexit is going to affect Cancer treatment" thread, although overrun by a particularly ignorant troll, did at least say in AIBU.