Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

PMK - thanks Red and good luck with the house.

Does anyone else feel that they lurch from thinking it's going to be a crash out to it's going to be an extension on an almost hourly basis? I've got whiplash.

All I can say is FFS.

I do nothing but read this thread, this thread only, when eating lunch, brushing teeth, on the loo, whenever I'm not working or keeping my kids alive or prepping.

I am never, ever more than 2 pages behind latest updates.

RTB can you slow time please so I can keep up?!

I have never been so utterly fascinated by politics - or the complete lack of. The uncertainty is relentless and horrific.

However, the insight, honesty and debate on this thread I am living and breathing. Well done all of you, I am heartened that sense lives and people actually care.

Now if government can actually do the same........

I hope they do. I know they won't. I wish the EU could save us from ourselves but I know they can't.

Best possible outcome is politics reinvented and a whole new system that actually represents people (not just the stupid or angry ones) and I also think that's unicorn poop at present.

Lord help us all.

carer The E27 GDP is about $18 TRILLION, so the UK's net contributions for 2 months are a very minor consideration.
A No Deal Brexit would cost a lot more than those contributions, economically & politically, so that's what they want to help avoid if possible.

The votes today are binding, but the Cooper amendment just requires a vote on 14 March, to have an extension

it doesn't mean we'll actually have an extension:
The MPs will probably vote for one
but we can't be sure the EU will agree

With regard to "Westminster not liking the SNP", it might just possibly have something to do with the SNP's aspiration for Scotland to be independent - and it seems appropriate to mention that today The National published the McCrone report about Scotland's Oil, that was deemed too inflammatory to publish 40 odd years ago and kept secret under the 30 year rule.

This gives a reasonably balanced perspective https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2019/02/27/a-positive-vision-for-scotland/

And keeping it relatively Brexit related, this article from the Telegraph last November (2018) does make the more cynical amongst us wonder why the Scots were told before the Indyref that there was no oil left and that it couldn't be factored into a successful but independent Scotland

One week on from my Memorial Feline Queen

May will whip to avoid extension. She could still make us leave on March 29th. If her deal fails she will whip to vote for no deal brexit and whip against extending article 50 if all else fails. She has Parliament in her hand. She need do no more. She is waiting for Parliament to vote her deal down, we fall out of EU with no deal and she can blame Parliament for the no deal brexit and at the same time say she's delivered brexit on march 29 th.

Been following these threads since November,

Sadly, I think Sostenueto is right.

But how I hope I’m wrong.

So, catching up I think Bigly had it earlier with:
*Lets be clear (as we can be) for everyone getting a bit excited. All the Cooper amendment does is say that parliament should have a vote on whether to request an extension.

It does not specify there will be an extension
It does not stop no deal
No deal is still the default even if we request an extension
It does not guarantee the EU will give us the extension we ask for on the terms we request*

More interesting is the split in ERG. Should sow discord amongst them for a bit and shows they aren't looking out for each other. That in turn allows May to stop pandering to them (for a short while at least) until they reorganise/smooth feathers of the 20. DUP abstaining (bribe or are they realising what is in store for NI - e.g as the new home of our Eurotom waste?

Re Labour, is it just me who feels Corbyn's 2nd ref plans are all hot air? It's too late to enter into all of that and I think he knows it - just platitudes to keep remainers on his side after the country noticed his complete lack of opposition. I also feel it's being pushed by Starmer rather than JC himself.

And my prediction on the workers rights (no env interestingly, although maybe ppl feel Gove is onto that? ) to persuade Labour is coming to fruition. It's right to be suspicious though as once we leave EU these rights are under the whim of whoever is in govt so may be amended...

Sorry for 3 posts in a row - keep forgetting something!

Does anyone know how May will approach EU for extension? She needs substantial changes to get them to even contemplate it - could she not just deliberately fuck that part up?
"Hi Barnier/Junker. Yes we would like an extension because I need to teach Davis his left from right. Yes, that is all. 21 months should do it. No? OK, how about 2? No? Oh dear, never mind."

Oh and DG I think called this one re 6 out of 8 IT systems for Boarder Control systems not ready for No Deal. IT and other databases one to watch for UK companies not realising their reliance on EU I suspect. In fact, after yesterdays impact statement, I'd say probably around 200k of them the same ones not paying out for EORI registrations .

212 posts already!

I think Sos is right too. And I suspect the only reason TM is so dogged about leaving when she says the UK will leave and leave the way she wants to leave is because she is too stubborn and unimaginative to countenance anything else.

It's so painful to watch this all play out. It's like she's sees it as some kind of weakness to change her mind and accept that 'the will of the people' isn't necessarily matching what her idea of Brexit is. It's not the sign of a good leader if they're not willing to discuss / adapt / listen to others' points of view. I can't work out if she's deliberately dictatorial or if it's just her normal personality to plough on in the same furrow without deviating, even if she's about to fall off a cliff ahead of her. People that dogged shouldn't have any power, IMO!

Throughout May's career, she has always been secretive and dictatorial, listening only to a small clique of her political advisors
Reports say she is very abrupt with her civil servants

Unfortunately, she has also been abrupt & arrogant towards E27 leaders at the various Brexit summits,
haranguing them with waffle - and still expecting the EU to solve her Brexit solution political problems.
Merkel reported early on that May kept asking her "make me an offer", rather than saying exactly what she wanted.

I imagine dealing with her is possibly the most frustrating thing most of these people have ever had to deal with.

Chris Williamson’s suspension shows how the Independent Group has changed politics

Which is probably what is annoying that section of diehard Labour / Corbyn supporters who share his views.

Like most racists, they think it very unfair when they can no longer get away with racism that was acceptable in the past

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/02/chris-williamson-s-suspension-shows-how-independent-group-has-changed

The blunt truth is that, in a world without TIG, Williamson would still be a Labour MP

I know some people who were at Uni with her. They said she was not a stellar performer, quiet and didn't engage very much with debate or the other St Hughs or geography students but was involved in the political society of course. She had few friends but her bestie was Alicia Collinson who dated and then married Damian Green.

PMK

Dealing with DD and then Raab was probably the most frustrating thing for Barnier & his team - at least the heads of govt were spared that.

Leaks say that each Brexit secretary would just harangue them with nationalist speeches, then leave Ollie Robbins to smooth things over and actually work.
re the actual negotiations, or technical stuff - neither BS (Brexit secretary) / Bullshitter wanted to understand that, or is capable of doing so

Negotiations have diplomatic niceties re standards of courtesy etc, which were not followed
Meanwhile, poor Barnier tried inviting each to stay at his farm for a few days, to try to break the ice.

I cannot believe that TM still believes the EU will give in at the last minute and change the WA. She really cannot bully the EU like she is parliament. If her deal gets through we really are scuppered. Starmer pointed out yesterday that the backstop will be permanent. 27 countries have to agree to remove it and Spain and France will make sure its not because of their demands over Gibraltar and fishing grounds. Other EU countries will have their own demands. We will NEVER get out of it as the backstop IS the customs union bit in the WA. He also admitted that there HAS to be a backstop.
I never, ever thought I would see this country in such a state.

May will whip to avoid extension. She could still make us leave on March 29th. If her deal fails she will whip to vote for no deal brexit and whip against extending article 50 if all else fails. She has Parliament in her hand. She need do no more. She is waiting for Parliament to vote her deal down, we fall out of EU with no deal and she can blame Parliament for the no deal brexit and at the same time say she's delivered brexit on march 29 th.

Can you please explain this? If May whips for no deal, how could she blame Parliament for it? That makes no sense to me.

BigChoc I can totally picture that is how things went on in the negotiations

May will whip to avoid extension.

She might want to but she can't. Her own party have made it very clear they are prepared to defy the whip on this matter. Its why the government ultimately backed Cooper-Boles to prevent a defeat and resignations (or defections).

The Tories only opposed the snp amendment because they have the opportunity to vote on the matter later.

I do think they will stick to their guns on an extension and preventing no deal in the interests of the party even if it pisses off the ERG because they also know the ERG are split and have reasons to secretly want an extension too.

So, in theory, no deal is still an option by then? Serious stockpiling will have started by then.

In theory. In practice I'm not as concerned as I was at the prospect of having to reverse stockpile for a few weeks as I was at the start of the week.