Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Its the whipping against extending A50 which is the most important queenofthorns. It is obvious she will whip for no deal. After all she has always said ' my deal or no deal'.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
The Tories accepted £146,750 of donations in November and December from Lubov Chernukhin, the wife of one of Putin’s former ministers, eight months after the Skripal poisonings. She donated another £100,000 to the party in March.

The Tories also received £150,000 from Ann Said in October. She's the wife of Syrian-born former arms dealer Wafic Said, a family friend of Bashar Assad, who has been banned from donating because he is tax resident in Monaco.

Meanwhile Sherry Funeral Directors has donated £5,000 to Theresa May's Conservative association in Maidenhead.

The irony of a funeral director investing in May.

It is obvious she will whip for no deal.

And?

Doesn't mean anything.

Over a hundred Tories defied the whip yesterday anyway.

Also she will blame Parliament for not voting for her deal queen. Whichever way you look at it the blame will be shoved elsewhere. Everyone knows she will note vote for an extension. Everyone knows she will vote for no deal. Everyone knows they have a gun to their heads to vite for her deal. Everyone knows that we will leave on the 29 th March with no deal because TM has stitched Parliament up.

Andrew Lilico @ andrewlilco
On Tuesday, May had to choose whether the Conservative Party was the party of its Remainer MPs or its Leaver members. She chose the Remainers. Now, or very soon - alas - Leaver Conservatives will have to make our own choices.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/27/theresa-may-has-sparked-beginning-end-conservative-party/amp/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May has sparked the beginning of the end for the Conservative party

Yep they did red but she has them all stitched up. Will DUP vote for her deal? Will they vote for no deal? Will they vote for extension? They abstained yesterday they have more at stake in a way. There will come a time in the next weeks when people will be forced to vote because they cannot continue to abstain. Tick, tick, tick, tock..........

Re Chris Williamson , I think he has fallen foul of something that seems to afflict a lot of politicians, saying things to one audience that they wouldn't to another and being angry when caught out.

Thank you as ever to red

Newport West by election 12th April.

I'm not expecting anything particularly of interest to feature here. Though a depressed Labour vote could let the Cons in via the backdoor. I think it unlikely though.

I think we will have an extension, if the EU can see a point to it. Her whip means nothing now.

I firmly believe there will not be an extension. But its only my opinion. I believe odds on the WA going through are now around 50/50 along with a no deal. It is not courage but her doggedness and craftiness that will ensure victory for TM either her deal or no deal. All efforts by Parliament have been too little too late, useless amendments that TM doesn't have to adhere to. She is a very dangerous woman in charge of this country. Its ironic that the US also has a very dangerous man in charge in Trump. Why do we always have to do what America does?

Yep they did red but she has them all stitched up.

Er, she can only do that to a point. I think you are miss reading the dynamics of what happened yesterday.

The Tory moderates will accommodate May but only to a point and are not willing for the hardliners to dictate policy. They drew a red line for May yesterday. I do expect them to keep it tbh.

That's also why the ERG set a red line in response last night.

I think Andrew Lilico has a point about irreconcilable differences in the Tory Party.

Labour seems, at least for now, to be showing more unity than the Tories over Brexit and has managed to stem the tide over defections. The Chris Williamson suspension is also hugely important. Corbyn has been forced to give ground. For the Tory Party I think it's more complex and difficult for May. I'm not sure it can be appeased quite so easily. Costa was heroic yesterday.

Ill have to read back about Costa, it's something I missed.

If I were TM if my deal fell I would declare a GE shut down parliament the same day ( march12th) and watch us all fall off the cliff. But if course that won't happen because she is going to allow everyone to have a vote on no deal or extension.

Sostenueto, May can try to put the blame wherever she likes, but I have my own Arya Stark-style list of who’s responsible for this monumental cock-up that I whisper at night when no one is listening. OK, Cameron has pride of place at number 1, but she’s not too far behind

Forced to resign.

As a government minister he wasn't allowed to table an amendment but he did.

He was forced to resign as a result.

Even though the government backed his proposal.

He basically embarrassed the government into a position where they had to support the amendment or be defeated, but they wanted to make a point that anyone doing similar had to pay a price for doing so.

The government might not have supported the idea otherwise, but Costa forcing the issue and having the support of Tory moderates was too toxic for the government to reject both internally and in the eyes of the public.

Me too queen
Me too.

Costa forcing the issue and having the support of Tory moderates was too toxic for the government to reject both internally and in the eyes of the public.

Interesting isn't it.Other things aren't seen as toxic like spending millions to try and trigger Art 50 without Parliamentary sanction. Or trying to avoid s meaningful vote, or being held in contempt.

So it's ok for the gov to force anything at all past Parliament. But not ok for an individual MP to show backbone or principle.

I don't agree with much of what Lilico says, apart from the Tory party splitting. The blame starts with the ERG, Cameron and May pandering to them, and ends with the ERG. As for the country wanting to Leave and it just being a matter of when, so a True Leavers party will rise up - that IMO is hogwash. Most people neither knew nor cared and then Farage came along and pandered to the racists, and enough fell in with his rhetoric for the Tories to get rattled.

Fix austerity, housing, the NHS and schooling and most people will go back to sleep as far as the EU is concerned. But will also be very glad that they don't need to buy a visa to travel, or get an international driving permit or two, or a green card.

Agree Peregina. Lilico is normally a vacuous source of bollocks. But on this one, I think he has a point.