Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Re leavers - the only ones I have met are in the admin section at work.

Three middle aged women, one of whom keyboard warrior possibly but rioting, no 0/10 all

One educated millennial, bizarre decision also 0/10

One bloke - hmmm... I could see it actually 3/10

Another bloke,def keyboard warrior, authoritarian streak 2/10

lonelyandtired May would very probably accept No Deal if the only other alternative is that she has to Revoke,
but imo she will keep fighting for her WA right to the end of any extension period if need be

If she wants No Deal, all she has to do is call a GE - which Corbyn would whip to support - and then No Deal would happen automatically during the 5 weeks that Parliament is dissolved.

Yes, I think the same Big I just can't see how she thought that a tiny bung would go down well. Then I remember their negotiating techniques (arrogance/bullying/rudeness) and it all kind of makes sense

Afraid there are a lot of Tommy Robinson types round where I live. And angry types who would egg them on. I live in a big Leave area with a fair bit of Free Tommy graffiti around.

Grinchly if you want to pm me, I could always see if you are coming in the same way as me to the march.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3510056-Put-it-to-the-People-March-23rd-March coaches list.

Risk rating of people I know who voted Leave (not many actually):

• Work colleagues who wanted more money for the NHS: 0/10. Now fed up with the whole thing and want it all to go away (although no-one talks about it much).

I am going on the March with family members. I went on the others and found them friendly and unthreatening. Of course this one could be even busier.

I wouldn't miss this potentially last chance to show my dissent (although I'm not totally sure about a People's Vote).

{Theresa May's office pays tribute to 'beautiful, welcoming' Salisbury a year on from novichok attack by posting a picture of Bath}

As reported on SKY and Mailonline.
Aww bless!

Japan making it clear we're on our own and more companies could leave UK in the future.

Bit of balance for the Dyson-Martin angle ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47440551

One of the UK's most successful space entrepreneurs has launched a withering attack on Brexit, labelling it "galactic scale stupidity".

(contd).

We already know geography is not one of this Government’s strong points.

Thanks oybbk

Sheep farmers' concerns of no-deal Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-47441182

Creating a market for UK lamb to match what is exported to the EU could take up to 10 years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, sheep farmers have warned
.....

But he told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme there was not enough time to create a market big enough to handle the amount of lamb produced.
....

The UK government said it was preparing as "any responsible government would" () for the possibility of no deal, and there was significant work under way to ensure that UK exporters could maintain access to EU markets.

.... It is considering all tariff options for a no-deal scenario that would work in the interests of farmers, consumers and businesses. 😖

Do they not know yet that a No-Deal scenario means WTO tariffs - and that it is not up to the UK if the EU charges them on UK lamb (and other meat)

I don't think I've seen this thread posted.

twitter.com/NicoleSykes_/status/1102502727924486145

Basically making the point that no deal is effectively already happening for businesses out there.

Just sticking their heads in the sand AGAIN
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-47443023
Ministers halt discussion of tax transparency bill

I'm picking up some mutton from the butcher tomorrow. Local farmer already decreasing his flock.

@PestyMachtubernahme 😳😥

In the U.K. this week and being intermittently subjected to BBC news. The sight of Javid on telly is making me want to add to the knife crime statistics (I know I shouldn't joke about it).

Back to sanity on Friday. Will I last that long before getting arrested for saying treasonous things about HMG or for encouraging my children to speak French loudly on public transport?

On the plus side, I noticed that Uttoxeter U3A took surprisingly kindly to my FILs anti-Brexit jokes today. So perhaps not all is lost.

No deal better than uncertainty, says head of German industry

Merkel was still making noises about approving a Uk request for an extension,
but this very influential industry spokesman is pressuring to refuse

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/brexit-dieter-kempf-no-deal-better-than-uncertainty-says-head-of-german-industry

Dieter Kempf, the chairman of the Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Industrie < German CBI >,
said the 100,000 companies he represents and their 8 million employees have prepared for a no-deal scenario in March, not in May.

“Everything is better than a chaotic Brexit.
But is procrastination good? No. Uncertainty is bad for the economy. If we talk about a period of two and a half weeks, it is good if we avoid a hard Brexit.

“But what will change in three to four weeks?
The British House of Commons knows very well what it does not want, but not what it wants. It cannot decide.
The British are lost, they can’t find the way to the exit. That makes it difficult for a negotiating partner.”

German companies had been working on a spring deadline for their no-deal plans,
Kemp said. “They have increased their storage capacity.
They have planned a transition period for the reorganisation of logistics processes without loss of production.
Now there would be a delay until May. What do they do then?

My experience is that the economy can live better with bad conditions than with uncertainty.”

Theresa May's office pays tribute to 'beautiful, welcoming' Salisbury a year on from novichok attack by posting a picture of Bath

And TM a geography graduate.

I notice that Cornwall isn't getting much money under TM's scheme. Despite being a poor area. But then we're a poor area with a Tory MP who will vote for the deal.

I did a stint at the food bank today and actually came away in tears. There was a woman who has a husband with terminal cancer and a son with special needs who is struggling to cope in school as the school are using some of the budget allocated for his 1-1 support on other things - probably ‘luxuries’ like teachers’ pay and books.
She has been trying to claim PIP for her DH under the special rules and is being constantly asked for information which they already have and being made to feel like a lying scrounger.
It seems like someone doing the odd cash in hand shift in a bar is the scum of the Earth but people like Bojo and Grayling can spunk billions of £ of taxpayers’ money with no consequences whatsoever.
Isn’t there a law about misappropriation of public funds?

PC It is sickening
Failing Grayling alone wasted 2.5 bn - think how many like that family could have been helped with that money instead.
Hell, just giving 2,500 quid to the poorest million people in the country

Japan making it clear we're on our own

At the very end of your link:

Mr Tsuruoka, who previously worked on the negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a complex trade deal between countries on the Pacific rim, said he was optimistic a trade deal could be agreed between the UK and Japan which would not take long to negotiate.

He added that the UK was welcome to join the pacific trade pact, CTTPP, as it is now called, but that a bilateral trade deal with Japan would likely be agreed sooner.

@BigChocFrenzy and @PCPlumsTruncheon - or imagine how much better SEN provision could be funded across the country- so those children are not completely disenfranchised by the education system......

I have been very down today with just the overwhelming feeling of helplessness as Britain is steered off the cliff.......

I do hope there is a special place in hell for those involved

I dont want to wish ill on people, but honestly, what have we come to? The country is about to throw itself over the cliff, and the poorest, with the least opportunities among us, will be right at the bottom of that cliff. I am still praying for revoke, but doubt it will happen.

What gets me, if the WA was so bad several months ago, why is it suddenly potentially acceptable now? (yep, I know, the cliff edge...) but why is there NO ONE who can say 'look it's the emperors' new clothes, let's just stop it'?