Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

"Cops & Robbers - a Plain Guide to the Difference"

You are far more likely to be killed by a policeman in the UK than a terrorist.

{German consumers in particular are hypersensitive to any possible health risk}
The UK only got over the 'Chernobyl, glow in the dark sheep' restrictions a few years back.
Interestingly the Chernobyl area is starting to be repopulated, particularly now the power plant is in it's sarcophagus. Due to the wind patterns when it bust, the radiation level in many places now is less than flying long haul.

That NYT article on Grayling is a gem.

I think the NYT Correction is the best bit of the article
Correction: March 3, 2019
Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article misstated the amount that a Labour Party’s report claimed Chris Grayling misadventures had cost British taxpayers.
It is 2.7 billion pounds, not 2.7 million.

Incredible that a transport minister from a foreign country rates an article of his own in the New York Times.
All fits with our new image in the world of Britain Brexit Blunderers

I hadn't totted up all Graylings blunders, but the NYT has:

"Grayling’s various misadventures - 12 in all - had cost British taxpayers 2.7 billion pounds"

Bloody hell, he's probably just the worst of several ministers over the years.

Instead of cutting the deficit by austerity for the poorest,
it would have been more effective to target & remove the most incompetent ministers over the last decade or so.

I'm not suggesting that fears of a backlash SHOULD dictate policy, or that we should be unduly worried, but I was wondering if that was partly what was driving May.

@lonelyplanetmum Excellent risk assessment.

In my world:

Risk rating 0/10 All my Leave voting friends and family who are too busy squirming with embarrassment, as it was apparently supposed to be 'just a protest vote against Cameron'

Risk rating 1/10 DP's old school friend who can't go on a march let alone a riot in case he can't find a toilet

Risk rating 1/10 My Ex FiL who's got a bad back

Risk rating 1/10 My Ex MiL who doesn't much like leaving the house after about 4pm these days, as it upsets her routine

How is everyone feeling at the moment?

I'm finding this phoney war period agonising and I still can't get my head around what the likeliest options are with next week's votes.

Comment seems to have tailed off a lot too,and I now realise I channelled my anxiety into reading as much as I could on here and elsewhere. Now there is almost an eery silence.

All I am certain of is that no deal is the default option and our EU colleagues have indicated short extension acceptable only if WA agreed, not for more can kicking. So - realistically it's no deal isn't it.

Yet the world keeps turning and normal life carries on. I find that dissonance very hard. It's a bit like how one feels after a bereavement.

More Grayling
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47444893

Dh heard an arch Brexiteer on PM on R4 on the way home. Sounded like , subject to Geoffrey Cox having the right weasel words, he would be prepared to accept WA. Which, in my view, is the least bad version of Brexit.

Thanks for the risk assessment Autumn.

My theory is that those with a higher risk rating are made up of those Tommy Robinson types - who although clearly capable of violence are quite contained numbers wise.

Yet the world keeps turning and normal life carries on. I find that dissonance very hard.

I'm just trying to recruit friends etc to come on the march. Are you able to attend or focus on the march Grinchly. I know it may be futile but at least it's a distraction or focus?

Grinchly yes, the calm before the storm. I think remainers are ramping up the worry (the ones who've only just tuned back in) but the leave lot have got quieter. Even my friend who I call daily doesn't mention it at all now, so I have to bring it up. A few weeks ago she was still raging about the Nazi's so it looks as though they are treating this as a cause for stiff upper lip.

In 30 years time it will be "we got through Brexit! They said it couldn't be done" - possibly when we our new lower world status/regulations and higher living costs are completely normalised. I suspect then we will have a new "Britain's halcyon days" vision of when we were in the EU to reminisce on...

My concern re violence is, much like the riots a couple of years ago, dickheads will take the opportunity to be dickheads. But I'd hope that it would be quelled by the police the army.

Agree with the dickhead factor, esp if shortages in shops and cooked food outlets. Dedicated Leavers will just stay at home saying “But WE WON”.

A very cynical part of me wonders if May has deliberately offered the "Labour voting areas" a ridiculously low amount of money to piss them off - thus ensuring No Deal. She's done a very good job of offending everyone. Surely someone in the Civil Service pointed out the spend isn't comparable to what has been taken away due to austerity and would be offensive?

lonely I feel I should come on the March and have been reassured that it's not too claustrophobic but I am at a pretty low ebb at the moment and it feels a bit overwhelming.

I feel the same grinchly.

I'm still plodding along...ordering extra food, extra meds, adding more to the cash stash.

But it all feels....odd. I never thought we would be a month away from B day and no further on!!

But...life goes on. Mum has booked a trip to Ireland in 2 weeks, we've booked a week in the UK in July, ds1s exam prep continues....

It's odd.

I can't help thinking this is what the Phoney war must have felt like...

Lots of people quietly panicking and making plans and everyone else just sticking their heads in the sand because the reality of the situation is so scary.

Grinchly yy I feel the same & really quite depressed, especially with the wanton wasting/spending of money it’s immoral & the sheer lack of any quality reporting/discussion, the opposition parties should be rubbing their hands with glee at shenanigans that is going on day after day.
Yy the analysis of violence.

Mind you if I lived in the south east and darling d dog was still alive, we'd definitely go to the wooferendum event!

I understand Grinchly I am apprehensive as I am not 100% fit, but I asked myself how I would feel if I did not go and later wished I had because, I know it's difficult to see how just one person could make a difference, but I decided I had to try, so, because I don't want to look back and regret not going, I have booked my place on a coach.

I will have another think about the March. Even if I do only a small section, it's better than nothing.

I love to go.
I'm going to find out if theres a local coach going

It does feel like the calm before the storm, the Phoney War at the moment

Think that this sums up the situation re May's bunh and how it will pan out re spring statement for the MV - Politco articleTiming is everything: Hammond, of course, will deliver his spring statement the day after the next meaningful vote (or “MV2,” as government officials insist on calling it), and immediately before the promised vote on whether to proceed with no deal instead. This will allow Hammond to lay it on thick for MPs that afternoon, the FT predicts. “In the event of the deal being thrown out by MPs,” Giles and his FT colleague George Parker report, “Mr. Hammond would confront MPs with a stark choice. If they voted to allow a no-deal exit, they would be putting at risk billions of pounds of extra spending on schools, police and other public services.”