Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Lonelyplanet It's a bung to persuade those Labour MPs to vote for her WA

It’s disgusting that she should be bribing these areas with funding that should be theirs as a matter of course with any decent government.

Lonelyplanet It's a bung to persuade those Labour MPs to vote for her WA

Ok but how is that enforceable? With the DUP it's a discrete party that can enter into a confidence and supply agreement.

Here it's part of Labour and no formal voting structure. I guess it's just pay anyway and hope the MPs do the ' right' thing. But surely that has to be Labour front bench approved?

In theory at least but with this government who knows? this £1.6bn bung to the "smaller town and cities" in England should result in additional money for Scotland (and NI and Wales?) due to Barnett consequentials.

I don't think it will make any difference to the way that Scotland thinks of Westminster

lonelyplanet Not delivering after receiving a bung is alwas a risk tht the bunger takes
Maybe May received some hints of what would change the minds of those Labour MPs

Or maybe she just thought it was worth a try, because it's not her own money anyway.

She's tolerated several hundred million being wasted by Grayling in his various jobs - maybe because he ran her 2016 Tory leadership campaign

She appointed Boris after even joking in her campaign about his wasted water cannon
and must have been aware of his Garden Bridge fiasco

So it's not like she gives a damn about wasting taxpayers' money when it suits her

pretty Most reports say the English bung is 1.6 bn - maybe she's cut back so she can trumpet having saved 600 million

I see that Grayling's continued failings have even piqued the interest of the New York Times. Well done, Christopher, that's quite the distincion.

www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/europe/grayling-ferries-uk.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

I especially love the correction at the end of the article

Correction: March 3, 2019
Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article misstated the amount that a Labour Party’s report claimed Chris Grayling misadventures had cost British taxpayers. It is 2.7 billion pounds, not 2.7 million.

More can-kicking, but at least this time it's with a perfectly transparent purpose

*The spokesman defended the government’s decision to postpone a vote planned for this evening on an amendment to the financial services bill intended to introduce tax transparency in overseas territories. (See 11.55am.) The spokesman said:

Thanks to UK leadership, all crown dependencies and overseas territories with financial centres are committed to global tax transparency standards, including the exchange of information to help investigate tax evasion. However, crown dependencies are separate jurisdictions with their own democratically-elected governments. They are responsible for their own fiscal matters. Given the beneficial ownership amendments were tabled on Thursday, it is only right that their implications are given proper and thorough consideration*.

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/04/brexit-latest-news-admits-16bn-for-poorer-towns-to-be-spent-over-next-seven-years-politics-live

After all, if you've worked so hard to get us out of the EU before ATAD comes into force, why would you want the UK to implement its own transparency policy? No point avoiding one searchlight, only to be caught by another of your own making. Anyway, they're all "separate jurisdictions with their own democratically-elected governments" -snigger-, so nuffink to do wiv us, squire.

I don't know how much influence Conservative Home has on Tories, but this sounded interesting - anything that buys some time gives a possibility of getting out of this mess.
www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/martin-howe-it-is-far-better-to-risk-extending-article-50-than-to-accept-mays-bad-deal.html

Having said that, I do wonder whether, reading between the lines of thins she says, May is driven in part by fears about a right wing backlash and violent civil disorder if Brexit didn't go ahead.

May is driven in part by fears about a right wing backlash and violent civil disorder if Brexit didn't go ahead.

The right wing backlash can never be an argument. As leavers like to remind us day in day out, Britain stood proud against the Nazis, didn't it? Why would we now roll over like scared poodles at the mere whiff of fascist threats?

Hasenstein ahhh, so we would have to implement it ourselves if we wanted to sort out our own tax evasion islands? I had thought it was an EU body who would be resolving these, which was why I was hopeful any delay would give them time to show up those Eurosceptics' purposes and hopefully see them behind bars and off our televisions.

In Sainsburys just now
Irish minced beef on offer ~ British minced beef not
and yet there was more Irish than British left on the racks.
I live in a poor white UK born part of the city
but folks like to think that "they" will look after us .....
Cheap nasty American food will NOT be welcome

and we will not get any of TM's bung money as Hampshire as a whole is rich

Lonely

Thart's a good point about implementation. Presumably once the ATAD comes into effect, we'd be responsible as a member state for implementing it (assuming we're still in at the time, of course).

I think the financial services bill going through parliament is separate from this (but I don't know, perhaps other brighter sparks on here do?), but the government attitude seems to be that we can't do anything about the crown dependencies because they're separate jurisdictions with their own governments. A very handy excuse, no doubt, which the government spokesperson was eager to embrace.

Does ATAD take away this figleaf of crown dependency independence (which seems a bit of an oxymoron to me)? It seems a bit strange to claim them for the "crown", but not have any control over how they operate.

Having said that, I do wonder whether, reading between the lines of thins she says, May is driven in part by fears about a right wing backlash and violent civil disorder if Brexit didn't go ahead.

So the UK is no longer a democracy then ? This is exactly how to Nazis managed to go from being a smaller party in coalition, to Hitler declaring himself Fuhrer.

The correct response to any credible threat of civil unrest is arrest and prosecution under the plethora of laws - old and new - we have for that purpose.

I'm sure our grandparents didn't fight the Nazis in Europe just to give in to them at home.

You find Brexiteers trying to drive through no Deal Brexit saying we shouldn't be intimidated by threats of possible terrorism in NI. But apparently we should be afraid of a violent backlash if we delay or stop Brexit.

Irish beef is gorgeous

You find Brexiteers trying to drive through no Deal Brexit saying we shouldn't be intimidated by threats of possible terrorism in NI. But apparently we should be afraid of a violent backlash if we delay or stop Brexit.

Because there's "good violence" (getting the security services to collude in bombing a school) and "bad violence" (which is anything the government says it is).

Other stories in the news: the ongoing scandalous story of undercover policemen tricking women into relationships, and the ongoing tragedy of knife crime.

It's all a bit end-of-days, really

I often see Irish beef in Germany, but haven't seen any beef labelled as British since the BSE scandal

Once a reputation is lost, customers avoid you for ever more

btw, remember that came about because some UK farmers used a cheaper feed containing animal waste,
then CJD spread throughout the British herds & population, with a few cases on the continent too.

Once US meat is imported into the UK, the EU will pull up the drawbridge

• German consumers in particular are hypersensitive to any possible health risk

My suggestion for what some enterprising Westministender could write for the UK:

"Cops & Robbers - a Plain Guide to the Difference"

BigChoc
Irish beef is lush, French beef is delicious, proper British beef is wonderful
and most American beef tastes of nothing at all.

DGRosetti
TMs bung to the regions is just a pittance.
I heard somebody saying on the radio that the amount allocated to the East Midlands is less than Stoke City Council have so far had cut from their budget

Which amount is greater?

The amount of money Chris Grayling has pissed up the wall

OR

The amount of money May is using to bribe deprived towns?

violent backlash if we delay or stop Brexit

It's just not going to happen in significant numbers. Those weirdo Tommy Robinson types can only muster a march of a few hundred and they are the most aggressive face of Brexiteering. Look at the Leavers in your acquaintance.Here is my assessment of the risk of the ones I know very unlikely to be going marching or having a violent backlash:

Risk rating 0/10- FiL he has hip and knee replacement issues.He can make it to go on cruises but can't make it to walk to Tesco.

Risk rating 1/10- Friend's Mum. She is very worked up about getting rid of muslims via Brexit. Her husband too has a new hip and she wouldn't march with out him. Also their little Maltese terrier thing is very frightened of crowds.

Risk rating 3/10 - Old school friend. She is very pro- Brexit , again all to do with being a Christian and not liking muslims. She could possibly go on a march but not for long and certainly nothing violent.

Risk rating 0/10 - Parents at the school. Pakistani descent Leave voters. Would like empire legacy immigration but don't like Poles and Romanians. They won't march- as too worried about encountering Tommy Robinson types.

Risk rating 1/10- Some other parents at the school. Tory devotees keen for tax breaks etc. Marching would be too edgy and street for them.Certainly no violence. Still would vote leave but much quieter about it now as they see business haemorrhaging out of the UK and are worried about that..

Fears of backlashes are exaggerated.