Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

DGR
Yes Invasion by the Romans is more of a 'significant change due to arrival of foreigners' kind of event. The point being it didn't happen overnight and was more subtle than just killing and theft etc.

{Or dirty agricultural war .....}
You mean the unwashed spuds and carrots at the supermarket are a Russian plot?

Just reading The Week and seen that "Rodean, the girls' boarding school...has hired Debrett's to teach pupils how to talk politely to someone who has a different view on Brexit, and to deal with racist elderly relatives. An expert on "British social skills", Debrett's aims to give pupils the confidence to deal with complex social situations."

Summed up the issues I suppose!

Labour need to be repeating this angle on brexit constantly, its a weak point for the Cons........

And the NHS. Most definitely the Tories weak spot.

{An expert on "British social skills", Debrett's aims to give pupils the confidence to deal with complex social situations."}
So that becomes, 'would you like fries with your order madam'?, rather than 'do you want chips'?

And it's been a bad week for Heck food's planned £4m attraction in N. Yorks which has been put on hold as funding from EU has been withdrawn. ""Visitors would have seen a "machine making 1,300 sausages a minute" said a spokesperson. "It's like a Gatling gun.""
Seems symbolic.

LeClerc
dirty agricultural war
No, I mean deliberate spread of diseases of livestock in particular.
Its been a known risk for many years and could cripple major economies.

Perigina agree especially emphasising the negatives effects of Brexit on the NHS...... but because Labour also want Brexit, they keep missing this glaringly open goal - add in the antisemitism angle + JC and the Tories are home an dry.

Its like some sort of perfect storm for the UK.

I'd imagine post brexit, as we cosy up to the USA, we will become a very unreliable Security and Defence partner for the EU....i hope Ivan Rogers is correct but i can't see how his positive view of the future EU/UK relationship is going to work.

So, so depressing.

Interesting how the same newspaper presents the same news story differently in UK and Ireland:

Matt Wellss@MatthewWells*

UK vs IRL editors of @thesundaytimes
Same bylines, same Brexit reporting, wildly different spin.

(The first line of the Irish version, notably, points out that the ERG demands are way beyond what EU negotiators will countenance.)

Frustrating clip from Channel 4 with another "No one did!" line sorry DG clenches own fists

Lonely
Broad Chalke is not your average village though .....
The local landowner (and landlord of lots of villagers) is one
Jonathon Harmsworth aka Lord Rothermere aka owner of the Daily Mail
who manages to be "domiciled" in France despite owning that chunk of Wiltshire

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre)

BBC- May sees Brexit as 'damage limitation', says ex-aide Nick Timothy
(link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47414079)

Shows dilemma/delusion of Brexiteers:
there is no economic upside only a hefty price to pay for meeting Brexiteer red lines & gaining illusion of control

.......

BBC News - Liam Fox welcomes Brexiteers' tests for Theresa May
(link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47432429)

And again: a time-limited backstop is not a backstop.
But if this is the excuse ERG is constructing to change their mind, let's all pretend that something has changed even though it hasn't

Frustrating clip from Channel 4 with another "No one did!" line sorry DG

To be honest, I really couldn't give a toss whether Brexiteers feel no one told them how hard Leaving would be if it means cancelling Brexit.

The Debrett’s thing reminds me - I used to live in a v. expensive village. I’d downsized, and budget busted because I loved the house. However it was at the “affordable end” of the village, as I found when talking to a woman I met walking her dog one day as I was walking mine. The conversation went like this:
Woman: And how long have you lived here?
Me: About three months.
Woman: Whereabouts are you?
Me: Such and such a road.
Woman: Ah, the affordable end...
(When I saw the film Hot Fuzz I immediately thought of this (really very lovely) village.)

On that Channel 4 clip

" Cameron's a naughty boy who needs his bottom spanked."

Just no.

And prettier than that C4 village! Less Leavey as well I would think.

Big surprise. Not:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/03/new-ukip-members-shifting-party-far-right?CMP=Sharee^iOSApppp_Otherr^^

A surge in Ukip membership is shifting the party decisively towards the far right,
as long-standing moderates are replaced by entrants attracted by an anti-Islam agenda based on street protest
....
Conversations with more than two dozen current and former Ukip figures, many of them senior, have uncovered an exodus of more moderate senior members and local organisers, hollowing out Ukip’s ability to fight future elections.
.....
many of the 8,000 or so newcomers who have joined in recent months appear to be younger and more radical, attracted both by Robinson and the party’s links to controversial YouTube agitators.

Members of Ukip’s youth wing have posted antisemitic and other extremist messages online
....
an influx of predominantly younger members, many attracted by Ukip’s tie-up with YouTube personalities such as Paul Joseph Watson,
from the far-right US conspiracy theory website Infowars.
< so UKIP members are even crazier than before >

The party’s membership stands at more than 27,000,
well below the figures seen under Farage but 50% higher than in February 2018.

Channel 4 clip "no one told us". Er .... yes they did.

the best DeBrett was Tona - see the classic clip from the Great Rock and Roll Swindle

Members of Ukip’s youth wing

hopefully that isn't a phrase our great grandchildren will read in their history books ....

What with the Farage's Brexit party to split the vote, the far right are very noisy on the street, but likely to crash in any elections.

So the Tories shouldn't be so worried about losing votes to them if they soften Brexit.

• the problem is that a large section of Tory MPS and the great majority of party members have moved so far to the right

As is usual with the far right and far left, UKIP internal factional struggles are even more damagung than those of the mainstream parties - and they lose a disproportionate number of elected politicians to criminal charges.

UKIP had 24 MEPs after they won the most votes in the 2014 European elections ... but only 7 of these are left now:
squabbles, defections, criminal charges ...

Replaced by entrants attracted by an anti-Islam agenda

I only read that Shamima Begum's husband is Dutch and wants them both to return to the Netherlands.

I know it's only one couple in 512.6 million people living in the EU but the timing and nationality issue is so unfortunate. Why couldn't she have been married to a Brit or a Syrian or an American. It just encourages the combined blurred anti EU + anti Muslim agenda and fuels the Faragist fallacies.

UKIP is turning back into the BNP from whence it came
and before that it was the National Front

those extremists have always existed
what changed was that Cameron let himself be spooked by them
twat

The increasing power of the DUP ?
Or just business as usual in NI ?

Jim Waterson@jimwaterson

Let me tell you about a country where press freedom is under threat.

^ It’s a place where journalists have been arrested after embarrassing the establishment^

by obtaining documents which suggest police collusion in the cover-up of six murders.

It’s the UK

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/02/police-treatment-no-stone-journalists-violates-media-freedoms?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Two Northern Irish journalists arrested over the alleged theft of confidential documents relating to the Loughinisland massacre were told their bail would only be extended if they agreed not to talk about aspects of the case.

Amnesty International said the treatment of Trevor Birney and Barry McCaffrey meant freedom of the press in Northern Ireland was at risk,
while the National Union of Journalists said the police had violated “basic media freedoms” amid growing international concern about the case.

Police raided the journalists’ homes last summer after they helped make the documentary No Stone Unturned,
which re-examined the murder of six people in County Down in 1994.

Three masked gunmen carried out the raid on a packed pub during a World Cup match between the Republic of Ireland and Italy,
but no one has ever been charged,
despite claims that the key suspects are known to the police.
...
Birney and McCaffrey worked with the Oscar winner Alex Gibney to produce the film about the massacre,
which included previously secret evidence from an unredacted internal police report, named alleged killers and
hinted at collusion between the authorities and the Ulster Volunteer Force killers in the incident.
...
On Friday, the police unsuccessfully attempted to attach a condition to the extension of the pair’s bail which would stop them talking about aspects of the case.

Some amazing Tweets referred to in that Sunday Times twitter thread:

Tim Shipman
@ShippersUnbound Replying to @KeohaneDan and @CER_Grant
It seems like you have a personal grievance, responding emotionally to a cool analysis of the situation. I hope you're just as keen on Varadkar's heroic stand against common sense if we no deal and Ireland is forced to thrust its hand into the begging bowls of Brussels/the IMF
8:15 PM · Mar 1, 2019 ·

(although he does later semi apologise it's totally appropriate for Ireland to feel embattled and resentful of UK for referendum vote. Also for UK to feel like Dublin has not helped them through the mire. If I succumbed to "know your place" tone, I'm sorry. I only began this bc I thought Daniel was harsh to Charles )

And then he says, as a further response to having said that the GFA had been achieved due to "massaged fudge" that

I expect Martin Selmayr and co to devise something clever

ie that it is the EU negotiating team's responsibility to come come up with the solution to problem of the UK's making

Have to say, Tim Shipman went down in my estimation having read these exchanges