Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

That's why the WM Government power grab of devolved food labelling laws was so significant.

The strong suspicion is that part of the trade deal will include the requirement not to put country of origin on the food stuffs - so that consumers can't exercise choice "discriminate" against US foods.

Seeing the article about Brady supporting May:

and suggested he will recommend that MPs back it – if the prime minister secures new assurances on the Irish backstop.

I was sure the matter was closed.

We don't know that Mercer et al are linked to Russia, LonelyAndTired. They have bottomless pits of their own money and hedge funds that need somewhere/something to swallow up. Why would Russia spend money on Leave only for the US to benefit?

I agree DGR - 'on its own terms' is completely true. Hence the tearing up of NAFTA and the current trade war with China (and the shots fired across the bows of the UK ag sector are not bluffs).

I suspect UK consumers will buy whatever they find in the supermarket once a US trade deal is concluded as long as it is cheap and 'tastes like chicken'. The importance to the US of securing an agricultural trade deal is that the UK would thus be isolated from trade with the EU and its economy flung open to US imports of all kinds, as well as US health insurance companies (bye bye NHS) and US consumer finance operations.

I think the ERG are trying desperately to find ways to backtrack without admitting it as they are seeing their Brexit slip away unless they do vote for the WA

The Mueller investigation links them Math
If us gone means EU is more likely to accept Russia in the future they will benefit. If EU crumbling takes an army off Russia's doorstep they will benefit.

Disagree, look what happened over mechanically recovered meat, turkey twislers etc.
Most consumers will not eat Hormone beef/washed chicken etc.

Sure if your in poverty then yes, but this is a minority of consumers, SuperM's do very well from their "Best from" ranges.

Of course, all this is moot, as imo her WA will get through and they'll only be an extension for legislation ..... i've just booked 10 days in Mallorca early May as i'm so sure this will happen......then the hard right will make very sure that the future relationship is very loose, May won't stand up to them :(

The strong suspicion is that part of the trade deal will include the requirement not to put country of origin on the food stuffs - so that consumers can't exercise choice "discriminate" hmm against US foods.

You can bet your life that there will also be draconian penalties for people who use social media to inform the public about the origins of products too. Shades of McLibel etc ....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47432429

Sorry if posted already.

How can the backstop be temporary? What's the long term solution if the backstop is removed after a certain amount of time? I might be missing something here...

jasjas funny, I've just decided not to go ahead with my holiday in Easter because it's still so unclear! I explained I don't want to be stuck on the other side of the country if the motorways near my home are all clogged. The response was "Sorry to hear you are putting things on hold.". IMO I'd be daft to contemplate a 7 hour journey each way with our unknown exit day potentially either side of my travel.

Looking after a friend's child today as she is ill. Catch up later.

Disagree, look what happened over mechanically recovered meat, turkey twislers etc.
Most consumers will not eat Hormone beef/washed chicken etc.

But if labels aren't allowed to mention state "mechanically recovered meat" or "country of origin: USA" - let alone "hormone grown" or "chlorine washed" or "genetically modified" , then how can consumers exercise choice?

So what do we think about these 3 tests from the ERG - workable?

Bollocks is the first word that springs to mind. Quickly followed by unicorns.

I had to book an Easter trip, as I miss my Mom.

Choosing secondary school was hard as well, because you cannot plan.

Anyone else trying to cut back in anticipation of hard times? No takeaway coffees or chocolate for me. No new books unless they are free (I shall break this first). Just trying to renegotiate Sky. We hardly watch it.

sparkly
The Backstop lasts until a trade deal with the EU is signed.
No trade deal, no end to the backstop.
Trade deal = end of backstop

remember that the WA is NOT A TRADE DEAL
the trade deal is another ten years of can kicking

...and even then, if the trade deal that is signed with the EU involves differences in regulations, the backstop (or a form of it) may still be required in order for there to be a "frictionless" border in the island of Ireland - which will drive the DUP mad

To me it seems there is a pretty complicated mix of 'players' of which Brexit itself is a relatively small part.
You have to consider what the aims of the various superpowers are, and how they are attempting to achieve it.
USA, prior to Trump was relatively uncomplicated, 'profit motivated' and exerting it's morality on those it trades with. Trump is simply a loose cannon mixing stuff up and alienating those in the USA and outside.
Russia is curious as again has Putin who is not especially 'statesmanlike' and is encouraging opportunistic 'scraps' with neighbours, but I am not sure where he is going with this.
China has a different approach and certainly in the west has 'infiltrated' western society. They (stereotypically) integrate pretty well but retain a fair percentage of 'Chineseness', although it could be wondered where their loyalties could lie if push comes to shove. Certainly it is through trade rater than explicit military means. Their rapid domination of Africa (through massive loans for infrastructure) and all around the South China sea make them very influential and if 'angered' could bankrupt several countries. Of course having a massive army that is paraded from time to time is helpful to keep the countries that have received 'loans' in line.
The EU project is different to the other 3 in that it is attempting to tie together European countries that have historically been at war with each other over the centuries, perhaps as the population density is higher than USA/Russia etc.
Fitting Brexit into this seems to be the likes of Steve Bannon and others masterminding change to the financial benefit of some.

I expect this is largely seen as a 'game', in that once you are a multimillionaire it is impossible to actually spend your money in the way that 'normal' people would do. Having luxury houses in several countries and a yacht or two doesn't actually cost a huge amount, so you diversify into 'playing' with money for fun, and if you are at all clever, your few tens of millions (on top of your properties) mean that unless you mess up you are in luxury until your time to meet the reaper.
I suspect that the likes of Farage are mostly pawns in the game. Unless they are actually smart (and are hiding it well) I suspect they are just useful gobby mouthpieces fronting the real plan, where they get thrown a few million to keep the pot stirred.
Working out the motivations of the various players globally would be fascinating, finding out who wants what and how they are going about getting it.
It is certainly far bigger than the UK going down the pan.

We are looking at Brexit in the position of (say) middle class English during one of the invasions of the UK in the past, say when the Romans came over. We can see some things clearly in day to day life. Influences as 'invaders' change things, but not knowing the overall plan.
The Romans did not arrive in the UK overnight, it took tens of years and then many more for their full impact to be felt. We look at the history in books and museums and see things as happening 'instantly' whereas it unfolded over many decades.

I also think we may be heading for another World War in the next decade or two. The sides I imagine are Western World vs Russia and China. I wonder if the return to populism in each EU country is a way to spark national pride to get this going from a grass roots perspective?

Who knows what the end game is meant to be. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no end game, just a wanton destructive desire for "change" by those rich enough to influence. I see this in Trump daily - e.g his trade tariffs boost Aluminium (so that sector is happy) but has a knock on effect on soy and other US sectors go down as a result. Lack of joined up thinking/collaborative working seems to be relevant as it's clearly something UK has struggled with in the last 3 years too.

Interesting thread about Farage and possible upcoming criminal charges re. money laundering.

twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1101910252390367233

John O'Connell
@jdpoc

The problem with good sources is there's rarely any printable third party confirmation, but I'm putting this out there :

We hear, from a reliable source, that Nigel #Farage could be facing Criminal Charges within 6 weeks related to Money Laundering.

Source is HMRC Money Laundering Unit in internal CPS documents

"And that's all I can say right now."

... except for this addendum : "Other persons in the public arena are being investigated for similiar offences."

I have no names.

Yet.

Well that would be good. Possibly too late, all things considered, but good.

Agreed. Far too late.

The Roman "invasion" is yet another myth. They were invited in by tribes who saw the way the wind was blowing (Romans had already eyed up Britain for grain, precious metal, grazing land) and realised it was better to be on the winning side. They got their invitations in early and used the might of Rome to help them deal with the neighbouring tribes who were less Roman-friendly.

Shades of the fact that for all the horrors of slavery, it was compounded by Africans selling Africans ....

The 3 tests

Bollocks is the first word that springs to mind. Quickly followed by unicorns

Thanks Red succinctly and accurately put as ever.

lonely
China has no interest in going to war
its quite happy with cultural and trade imperialism

Russia would much rather not go to war as then the true state of its armaments would become clear

Cyber war on the other hand ....
Or dirty agricultural war .....

But if labels aren't allowed to mention state "mechanically recovered meat" or "country of origin: USA" - let alone "hormone grown" or "chlorine washed" or "genetically modified" shock, then how can consumers exercise choice?

Depends if you think we are heading for Soviet style state control.

The M/C's who are the Tories core vote, will not tolerate their food being mucked about with...... its not what "taking back control" was supposed to mean.... see how much GM food is available in the UK.

Labour need to be repeating this angle on brexit constantly, its a weak point for the Cons........ so i expect the Media et al to be banging on about anti semitism, which imho, is now being used by the right to divert from the real issues that are affecting the country, its effectively stymied the opposition.