Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

For me the FOM and ECJ red lines are fundamental to the campaign argument that Vote Leave made, advocating that we take back control of our trade, our money, our borders and our laws

Louise had better start campaigning to leave NATO, UN, ECHR, IMF and never have a trade deal.
Also in her utopia, interest rate changes by the Fed or the ECB will not have any effect on sterling either.

Vote Leave promised a load of stuff that cannot be delivered, not then, not ever.... how could anyone believe their guff !

What been said on these threads for the last 3 years:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/01/brexit-trump-trade-hanoi

So much for independence

CNN explains Brexit by means of a fishy tale
edition.cnn.com/2019/02/24/uk/why-is-brexit-so-difficult-british-fishing-gbr-intl/index.html

This is hilarious!

twitter.com/hashtag/GammonballRun?src=hash

Amazing that Michael Gove was making not so veiled threats against Irish agricultural exports to the UK while at the same time it should have been abundantly clear to him that British ag exports are in a tailspin because of uncertainty related to Brexit.

Presumably Irish producers and growers will be able to sell to former UK customers, so any tariff wall erected to pressure Ireland on the Border/ backstop issue can be simply ignored.

Louise had better start campaigning to leave NATO, UN, ECHR, IMF and never have a trade deal.

And specify which of these international organisations deserve a leave vote too...international organisationss*

Yay my first ever proper link. (Swirls delightedly!). 💃

Link didn't work

https://www.indexmundi.com/unitedkingdom/internationallorganizationparticipation.html

BBC desperately trying to show impartiality with this video of the public 'take over'. The fact the leaver who thought the BBC was "very very biased against Brexit" came out feeling good says it all. I don't know how Leavers could think that personally, considering they hardly report on the facts at all but do a lot of leaver vox pops (even this video had to have one!). I'm still cross that the story covering Gove's speech last week wasn't front page news and had no mention of the shortages every other paper covered!

Pops in for two mins to see if Grayling, Corbyn, May or any other useless fucker who should resign has done so

Nope.

I haven't missed anything today that we've not discussed on multiple occasions, often over a year ago, have I?

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
^NEW Minister approaches Independent Group of MPs as three more Conservative MPs face no confidence votes t.co/DYJ6gBJJD3 via @Telegraph

The Telegraph can disclose that three Tory MPs Dame Caroline Spelman, Dominic Grieve and Mark Pawsey are facing no confidence motions at their party's annual meetings over the next four weeks.

Activists are expected to request a vote on Dame Caroline’s future at her party’s annual meeting next Friday; Mark Pawsey faces a vote on his future on March 20 and Dominic Grieve has to win a vote of no confidence on March 29.

www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2018/08/labour-can-be-jo-cox-s-party-or-chris-williamson-s-it-cannot-be-both?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Labour can be Jo Cox’s party or Chris Williamson’s – it cannot be both

This is the crux of the Labour Party fracture. Conspiracy and ideology versus pragmatic reality.

It slices through the party policy and divisions on Brexit neatly.

It's not leave v remain.

Brexit affecting holiday planning. You might be able to get a cheap holiday out of it #BrexitOpportunities

Guernsey Jersey and Isle of man not happy at plans to force transparency. May 'ambushed' over it. It would apparently create a constitutional crisis in Jersey.

Oh look. Human rights abuses by the government.

Not enough of them yet though.

I haven't missed anything today that we've not discussed on multiple occasions, often over a year ago, have I?

Eurotunnel's claim against the government over the rushed secret ferry contracts were settled out of court by agreeing for Eurotunnel to supply additional freight capacity, and the govt handing over £33m in return. The detail on this is newish..,

But We've discussed Grayling's failings before and the part privatisation of the probation service, which has cost taxpayers an extra £427m.

So I guess it's just more of the same old? Probably won't affect the polls though.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
New from @AlbertoNardelli: PM told Tusk in Sharm El Sheikh that she may need a “short and technical extension” to A50 if MPs vote for her deal. First time she has clearly indicated we aren't leaving on March 29.

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/theresa-may-told-donald-tusk-that-brexit-might-have-to-be?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May Told Donald Tusk That Brexit Might Have To Be Delayed Even If MPs Back Her Deal
The prime minister informed the European Council president last Sunday, according to an EU27 diplomatic note seen by BuzzFeed News.

It's a shame Eurotunnel settled out of court.

and Dominic Grieve has to win a vote of no confidence on March 29.

Christ, what a horrible day that could be for him.

Came across this excellent video explaining in very clear terms why Brexit and especially leaving the single market cannot make economic sense, why a US trade deal is unlikely and how the UK will be headed straight back to the 70s. The video is almost 2 years old but just as current today:

I'm not sure I'd hang about for a vote of no confidence. What are the odds on these three joining the TIGgers, do we think?

I hope then that Dominic Grieve jumps ship and joins the Tiggers. They can still support the Tory party when it puts forward policies that they agree with, but won't be beholden to the batshit crazy right wingers.

So apparently MPs are going to stop a no deal brexit. Fact.

*It's not my interpretation, thr overwhemling majority of MPs have confirmed they will stop it. It's factual.

Do you not read up on it, watch the news? Watch parliament?*

I must be living in an alternative world. My world is very uncertain but apparently it's all sorted.

I’ve decided to have a Brexit free weekend. See how far I get. DH is only to wake me up if someone resigns.