Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

What else is he hiding ?

"Grayling was accused on Monday of trying to conduct large parts of the trial in private, against the principle of open justice, the high court heard.

The judge ordered Grayling to return to court by close of business on Thursday with justification for keeping up to 10,000 documents relating to the contracts private.

It is believed the contract was settled out of court yesterday afternoon
and all files now remain sealed and unavailable for press or public scrutiny."

From SKY news online, report about trade and chlorinated chicken.

{A DIT spokesperson said: "Negotiating an ambitious free trade agreement with the US that maintains our high standards for businesses, workers and consumers is a priority.

"So we welcome the US government publishing their objectives, which demonstrates their commitment to beginning talks as soon as possible.

"As part of our open and transparent approach to negotiations, we will publish our own negotiating objectives in due course."}

So which part of Fox the Wherrity sniffer with his deals with the USA to be kept secret falls into the 'transparent' arena?

It's not just sheep and cattle farmers ... arable farmers are losing out already:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-barley/hangover-for-uk-farmers-as-brexit-uncertainty-hits-brewing-barley-sales-to-eu-idUSKCN1P51UM

Sales of British malting barley to European Union brewers and malt producers for delivery after Brexit have come to a virtual stop because of uncertainty about future trading relations.
....
The standstill in so-called forward export sales for delivery in coming months means UK farmers are not able to take advantage of current attractive prices
and are losing business to other EU suppliers, traders said.

“They have essentially lost market access at this point of time for forward sales
which is frustrating because commercially it is the right thing to do, forward prices are high,”
said Jack Watts, chief combinable crops adviser with the National Farmers Union, which represents farmers in England and Wales.

Britain, which counts barley as its second most important arable crop after wheat ....
.....
“It is certainly true that German importers are not currently buying British malting barley.
This is because of the uncertainty with Brexit, or with no Brexit or whatever,” one German malting barley trader said.

“The great problem is that it is not currently possible to make a commercial calculation
because it is not known if malting barley supplies you buy from Britain now for delivery in later months will face some form of EU import tax/customs duties...

There is a commercial risk which is too large to take.”

Traders said German importers had transferred their buying interest to other EU suppliers, especially France,
which had a big crop last summer.

WOOGERENDUM GROUP

Sunday 10th March 2019 - BREXIT DOG’S DINNER - join us!

We are holding a ‘dog’s dinner’ outside Parliament - for hundreds of dogs (and their owners) to come and protest. Please join us and spread the word.

Here’s the Brexit Dog’s Dinner Facebook invitation:

www.facebook.com/events/2456742301043101

I can't wait to see the photos!!!

*wooferendum not woogerendum.. that would be silly.

Louise - the uk supreme Court is 'supreme' apart from the trade related competencies we have ceded to the ecj (we have ceded human rights supremacy to the echr not ecj)

However we exit 'supreme Court' supremacy still won't be there for trade - it will depend on the trade deal. Even at the level of discrete sales the contract often states the jurisdiction in effect - that's what happens in trade. Take a look at the detailed t's & c's of any software you have bought - you might be surprised who you have agreed to have jurisdiction.

Surely a woogerendum would be involving Jools Holland?

Overseas customers interested in British meat are now cancelling orders and buying their produce elsewhere due to the lack of clarity around Brexit

https://www.farminguk.com/news/Overseas-buyers-cancel-British-meat-orders-due-to-Brexit_51451.html

The BMPA have described how they have been 'inundated' with inquiries from exporters wanting information on what is going to happen with the current political situation.

Nick Allen, Chief Executive said:
“Despite numerous crisis meetings with government officials, we are still no closer to getting definitive guidance on tariffs, certification and health marks that our members desperately need."
......
Tariff uncertainty

The lack of clarity around Brexit is now causing orders to be cancelled and effectively closing-off once lucrative export markets to British firms.

Delays in announcing what tariff rates will apply in the event of a 'no-deal' Brexit mean that shipments to overseas markets that set off tariff-free will arrive at their destination after 29 March and be subject to an, as yet, undetermined tariff.

Those overseas customers have no way of knowing how much extra they will be required to pay.

The insurers that cover these consignments and facilitate the movement of goods between countries are refusing to indemnify against losses related to a 'no-deal', the BMPA said.

Health mark confusion

The organisation said that there is also confusion about which health mark should be used.

The health mark is the stamp that indicates which plant meat has been processed at and is a key factor in insuring traceability and provenance.

So far, no decision has been made by government over what this mark should be, and no formal acceptance of change of status as the UK ceases to be an EU member state has been received from major export markets.

The BMPA said that this means that there is a 'real danger' that any product that gets shipped bearing the wrong mark will be turned away at its destination.

I think I am in love with Marina Hyde:

Journey of the week, though, belongs to Nigel Farage. On Tuesday, Nigel took to the airwaves to say that if the eventual choice was between May’s deal or remain, he wouldn’t campaign or vote – a threat arguably without bite for at least 48% of the country. According to Nigel, he’d “rather go on holiday”. Mmm. A lot of people are saying Nigel might have to “go on holiday” to America soon anyway, so maybe a way to synchronise the two possibilities might be found.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/01/chris-grayling-nigel-farage-march-leave?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Looking at that politico article, I'm not sure how much guidance a poll - even a "representative one" - of 1030 would be

By their own admission Because the U.K. uses a regional list system for the European Parliament, seat distribution is less proportional than in some countries.

So for example (I had a look at the datasets www.ncpolitics.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/politico-european-parliament-voting-intention-poll.pdf, they only have 88 from Scotland, out of 1,030 polled.

There is then some inconsistency between the actual results and their supposedly weighted polling. Actual results from 2014 were 2 SNP, with 2 MEPs (29% of the vote), Labour, 2 MEPs (25.9% of the vote), Conservative, 1 MEP (17.2% of the vote) and unfortunately and to Scotland's shame UKIP, 1 MEP the odious and execrable Coburn (10.5% )

They don't analyse how people voted in previous elections by geography, but they do include the SNP in the "how people recall they voted" table - and it jumps from 16 to 18 from 2014 to how they'd vote now (if you assume "Other" to equal SNP). Yet in the "by geography" table, it has the Conservatives apparently jumping to 19% ahead of the SNP on 17%, Labour on 11% , the LibDems, also on 11% and the Greens on 8%, and (but looking on the bright side ), UKIP on 4%.

Just goes to show you can't predict on such small datasets.

Personally, I think without having done the survey - or at least presented the datasets - by analysing by region how people had voted last time versus how they plan to vote this time, the conclusions are meaningless

Unless I am totally misreading or misinterpreting the datasets

pretty We should never attempt to predict results for Scotland from a UK-wide poll,
because the number of Scottish participants are too small

This sample of 88 out of a 1000+ is typical of all UK polls on anything and is totally inadequate for predictive purposs

However, polls for the whole UK should actually be better at predicting MEPs than MPs, since PR is more representative of votes cast than FPTP

So the total number of Tory, Labour and probably LDem over the whole UK should be a good guide,
but the number of MEPs from regional parties like SNP or Plaid cannot be predicted from UK-wide polls of 1000+

and a good guide tht UKIP would lose a lot of MEPs,
including Scotland's shame

BUT
Opinion may change a lot within the next 12 weeks or so before MEP elections
and .... we are unlikely to hold these elections anyway

I know - but what I'm pointing out is that by their own analysis, their conclusions are meaningless, because of the regionality of the PR system used in the UK.

So without knowing how people had voted by region in the previous elections/referendum, they can't predict (and I know it is just a prediction) the profile of any future vote [confusion]

It's why looking at the raw datasets makes such a dfference

Raw data shows Tory and Labour gaining, UKIP losing - in the UK as a whole
How this will be translated into MEP seats is probably more accurate than polls predicting HoC seats

May merely confirming what we've said for weeks:
Even if the WA passes, she will need an extension for the WAIB (if she can't / won't use Henry VIII / Emergency Powers)

www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/theresa-may-told-donald-tusk-that-brexit-might-have-to-be

The note is of a briefing made to the ambassadors of the EU’s remaining 27 member states on Friday morning.

It reveals that May told Tusk on Sunday that she would need extra time in the form of a “short and technical extension” to implement legislation if MPs back her deal in a meaningful vote she has promised will take place by March 12.

Having just read in today's paper that EU immigration is down, but that from the rest of the world is up, I wonder what those Leavers who cite controlling immigration as one factor in their vote feel about that.

This is the immigration that we can control. Why aren't we doing so, if it is so vitally important?

because of the regionality of the PR system used in the UK.

I believe we don't have one PR system in the UK - D'Hondt for Great Britain and STV for N I.

A clear change has happened over the last few weeks - EU opinion is hardening against a longer extension,
i.e. hardening against renegotiating the PD

So, 2 months at most

Guy Verhofstadt@guyverhofstadt

If the UK Parl rejects her deal, Theresa May would like to extend the negotiating period.

In my firm opinion, if this happens, this can never be longer than a couple of months so that a cross-party majority can be found.

But certainly not 21 months!

More: m.facebook.com/99985820015/posts/10157412574245016/

“Overall, 32 percent of Labour voters (based on their declared future voting intention) say they are either likely or very likely to vote for a TIG candidate if they stood in their constituency. That compares with 29 percent who said they are either unlikely or very unlikely to do so,” writes Tom McTague, in a story published this morning. Brexit Pro subscribers had access to the data, based on a poll of 2,006 adults that was conducted between February 22 and 25, ahead of publication.

Politico article re TIG

2 months is basically just more time for May to twist arms and keep bringing back the WA to the HoC

Another suggestion May is reportedly considering is a v short extension of about 2 weeks, aim to complete before 18 April, which is the last sitting of the EP

Her plan:
she keeps up the pressure, the HoC approves the WA, then the EP approves the WA right as its final action

Does anyone know what happens with the tax havens if we extend for a measly 2 weeks? Is that enough time for the EU to slap charges on Mogg et al? I'd have them in my hairlines if I had the chance

Maybe a short extension would force them to resolve issues but I don't see how. Two weeks is a joke. Two months no where near enough when nearly 3 years hasn't achieved anything.

Extension until 18 April would be literally just to allow May to give the WA one more try in the HoC

She can pile on even more pressure in April, because a 2nd extension would be ruled out by both her & the EU

Hence it really would be her WA or No Deal

May & the EU are trying to force the HoC to choose what they want from what's actually available

The HoC keep trying to delay and ask for another option
With the short - and only - extension, there would be no other option, just WA or No Deal