Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

I think I said a few threads ago it seemed like they were "managing" the Brexit problem

They have to go through with it now though, after backing up the whole "will of the people" schpeel continuously for 3 years. They've ensured both sides are entrenched. We've spent billions (although pulling out of anything after spending doesn't bother Tories usually) and dropping it now would alienate their hard right base. Plus EU is hardly going to let us swan back in without some penalties. Arguably we already enforced penalties on ourselves by driving away trillions in business but EU won't trust us hereon in. Or many other countries for that matter. We're stuck with the choice Russia made for our future now.

Oh yes and Russia is defo a friend of the UK. Not.

The EU would welcome us back, but as Tusk said, they think the chance of Remain is very low

Hence they have to plan on the basis that we are leaving and - depending which EU commentator you read - with a likelihood of No Deal that is 50-90%

But Big you can't honestly believe that after the last 3 years they respect us? We can go back cap in hand but we won't be trusted or be able to be at the top table ever again.

If we had been honest about Russian interference from the get go - had a proper investigation and talked to EU about how to move forward considering such interference breaks down democracy we could have actually turned this into a positive. Yes half of the country would have been angry for 6 months or so, but ultimately we'd have a lot of respect for tackling a global issue.

We instead chose to ignore it, May covered up for Aaron Banks and has pretended she believes this is the actual will of the people rather than a psyops op that we have massively failed to protect our citizens against, plus the result of decades of governments scapegoating EU. A little humility would have gone a long way to showing us as adult, but we've acted like children and will reap what has been sown.

I expect the EU would demand both parties - and both leaders - state unequivocally that they are dropping the red lines and that the Opposition would be consulted during negotiations,

Why would the EU consult the opposition ? They would follow the UKs own constitutional arrangements and only communicate with the government.

Just because the UK has seen fit on occasion to try and bypass elected governments and talk to opposition leaders, doesn't mean it's diplomatically normal.

No Deal is the default.
We are still expecting far too much from HoC to agree ANYTHING!

Just yesterday we had a whole long discussion about the chances of no deal being 9:1, so significantly reduced from a while ago.

Weren't those numbers bookmakers odds ? So not a reflection of reality, but peoples perception of such and willingness to gamble on ?

And I'd believe May might ask for an extension when I see it (and see what she is asking for and why). I don't trust her to even do that in good faith as she clearly doesn't believe in or want an extension.

Personally I think we are nearer No Deal than ever.

And we had the discussion about the odds because I said we should bet on them as they don't understand how close to No Deal we are!

{It's not over yet.}

It is for significant numbers of car workers and a whole raft of others. They just haven't been told yet.
As the citizens of Europe wake up to what the UK has 'stolen' from them, by embarking on Brexit, the 'person in the street' is going to get rather pissed off. The money has to come from somewhere and it will be down to individual governments and EP to decide where it is taken from.
Even revoke is a long way from where the UK was 3 years ago, it is hurtling down the slope even if not a cliff.

Yes it is the default - but there's no reason to assume it will happen. I still believe there are plenty of people in the HoC who will not let that happen

If it was to happen, it would have by now.

It hasn't

You all start giving up like she knew you would.

Who's "giving up" ?

I thought a while ago we are headed for no deal, and nothing has happened to change that view. Just a lot of sound and fury ...

To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

You know the Kyle amendment which I think Labour have now said they will support has not has much discussion on here. It’s an amendment for the 12 th March vote I think. I think it’s tremendously important and the one I would be urging people to write to their MP to support.
It basically puts a PV into ratifying the deal May has “won” against remaining in the U.K.
So in my opinion if it wins enough votes- Labour , SNP, Tiggs and plus quite a few moderate Tories who would see this as a way out of the deadlock it would be progress and an extension in that scenario would be permitted by the EU

My post would be far better with paragraphs

You know the Kyle amendment which I think Labour have now said they will support has not has much discussion on here.

It’s an amendment for the 12 th March vote I think. I think it’s tremendously important and the one I would be urging people to write to their MP to support.

It basically puts a PV into ratifying the deal May has “won” verses remaining in the U.K. “No deal” would not be on the ballot paper.

So in my opinion if it wins enough votes
-Labour ,
SNP,
and plus quite a few moderate Tories who would see this as a way out of the deadlock -

it would be progress and an extension in that scenario would be permitted by the EU.

Plus Tiggs .

They got left off in my edit because iPad doesn’t like the word!

The Kyle amendment, as with any PV based "solution" amounts to a redo of the 2016 referendum, PV by any other name, when we've already had it. All this because the "wrong side" won the last time. No way, Jose.

Aah Forgot Louise was still following this thread but was ignoring like others I guess.

Just going to ignore though now Louise , thanks for it but I know your viewpoint already

This is interesting: The Times is reporting that the DUP is looking for a "ladder to climb down". There seems to be a realisation that they have cocked up and are out of step with popular sentiment in NI and they are now keen to find a face-saving way to support the government.

The DUP’s hardline stance at Westminster has come under growing criticism in Northern Ireland, particularly from businesses who are growing increasingly concerned at the prospect of no-deal.

Earlier this week the government warned that the “cumulative impact” from a “no deal” scenario would be “more severe” and “last for longer” in Northern Ireland than Great Britain.

I have always maintained that No Deal has always been the threat May has used to get her WA through but she will never carry her threat out- it could well destroy her party.
Electorally could see them out of power for a decade or more.

The Kyle amendment is an excellent way out for May, it obsolves her of responsibility whatever the electorate do.... but she is stupid and arrogant, so no guarantee she'll support it.

ERG wont like it but they'll stay, they have nowhere else to go, just as they had swallow it after Maastricht.

Of course her deal might get through :(

I was wondering when the DUP would feel the wrath of their constituents, especially small businesses.

Yes it might get through Jas but for me even though I would vote for Remain, if her deal did get through, I could live with it . This is because at least people would be voting with their eyes wide open knowing what they were being asked unlike last time - contrary to what others might think.

Kyle would be good for the DUP too because again it would absolve them of responsibility and allow them to save face.