Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

I do not know what to think any more.

Our by election in a couple of weeks will be interesting
(one of the vanishingly few TRUE tests of public opinion coming up before Brexit)
I suspect we'll get rather an influx of media looking to see if we are any sort of bellweather

I don't think that the DUP want to save face that badly, bees. The Times suggests that the MPs are praying that the EU gives TM something so that they can latch onto that and say that there has been enough movement to reassure them.

Another [source] said: “There does seem to be a softening. I think at this point they really want a deal.”

In public the DUP leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, has maintained the party’s line that “no deal is better than a bad deal” and suggested that the onus is on Dublin and Brussels to compromise. However, behind-the-scenes talks with the government on the nature of the concessions being asked for by ministers have been described as “constructive”.

I may have missed it but has anyone posted Esther McVey's Ladies for Leave? If not here you are.

twitter.com/Ladies4Leave/status/1100327336774434816?s=19

Bigly that is hilarious. Sounds like they are all wanting to leave their spouses! Or just giving up in general .

I'd love to know how many women were told what to vote and now wonder how they will balance the household budget with food price increases .

Apols Mother I think I mis-typed but I meant within the discussion I had posted about how we should bet as we knew more than most. I know DG and I agree it is more likely to No Deal now, but understand many want to wait and see.

I really thought it was some sort of very well put together spoof for a while lonelyandtired. It's really very strange.

@DGRossetti

Sublime quote... but then Macbeth also says

I am in blood
Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more,
Returning were as tedious as go o'er.

That way lies madness: knowingly persevering down a dark path because light feels too remote. He has choices and chooses wrong, repeatedly, refuses to save himself and finally wallows in his own despair. That is his real tragic flaw. His life has no meaning because he has basically willed it so.

We are not quite in a Shakespearean tragedy yet...

That is hilarious. I kept expecting David Walliums in drag to turn up.

DG The EU Commission has been gently trying to coax May into cross-party discussions.

Why they would probably want both leaders to agree before a long extension to renegotiate the PD:

otherwise, a GE - always likely with a hung Parliament - could result in the next govt tearing it all up.

We already know that May and Corbyn don't agree on the kind of future relationship with the EU.

They don't want to spend say a year negotiating with a Tory government, ônly to have to start from scratch negotiating with a Labour govt.

To get unanimous agreement for a long extension, the EU would need to be reasonably confident they won't just be wasting resources.

mother The 50-90% chance of No Deal is the range that I've seen quoted from respected analysts in the EU.

We can't take Paddy Power seriously for that !
their mission statement is to set betting odds so that they make a profit.
Hence it depends on how much money is bet on each possibility and they lay off bets, adjust odds etc.

DG The EU Commission has been gently trying to coax May into cross-party discussions.

Oh, I'm well aware the EU would have loved to had all other parties involved in the process - it would be their familiar way of working from the constitutions of France, Germany, Italy etc.

The problem is the UKs constitution really makes no provision for opposition parties apart from a few nice titles and comfy chairs in the commons bar. And given how the UK media treated it's own lawfully elected politicians (as Traitors) and judges (Enemies of the people) it really doesn't bear thinking about what would have happened had there been even the slightest appearance of the EU trying to circumvent the Westminster setup.

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing - it places all blame at the feet of the Government and the person leading them.

bigly wrt the madder Brexiters, it is difficult to distinguish between parody & reality,
because the daftest statements turn out to be true ...

e.g.

Not realising the importance of Dover ro-ro for UK food supply (Raab)

Believing every British citizen has a right to an Irish passport and to vote in Irish elections (Bridgen)

Saying one reason a proposed Brexit deal would be unacceptable is that we'd lose MEPs after Brexit (Dorries)

Suggesting starving out the Irish (Patel)

That Ladies for Leave video and Esther McVey saying 'nasal gazing'

{That Ladies for Leave video and Esther McVey saying 'nasal gazing'}
Yes but the subtitles did get it right.

DG The EU wouldn't try to force the 2 parties to work together,
but they might well want to gain agreement from both on the end goal,
before agreeing to another 21 month extension to renegotiate the PD

They are really fed up with investing all this effort, thinking May has agreed to something and then she reneges
It would be even worse if a Labour PM would tear up everything after a year or so.
They'd be trying to reduce that risk as much as possible.
Maybe just with informal talks before any extension - and then hope Corbyn doesn't renege like May

Esther McVey's Ladies for Leave?

Kinda sums up the Nasty parties patronising misogyny in 3 words.

I bet a century ago, Esther McVey would have been telling us why suffragettes were wrong, and women shouldn't worry their heads over menfolks work.

Since we're clearly not trying to be inclusive, what other "... for leave" could we see ?

Dogs for Leave
Cats for Leave
Goldfish for Leave
Lobsters for Leave

With the supposed memory span of goldfish at 7 seconds or whatever, we already have that covered by the 'leavers'.

^DG The EU wouldn't try to force the 2 parties to work together,
but they might well want to gain agreement from both on the end goal,
before agreeing to another 21 month extension to renegotiate the PD^

I know, I know.

But ultimately the UK doesn't work like that, so that's that.

Ultimately it's just another reflection that the UK constitution is no longer fit for purpose.

Worth noting that what the EU is encountering might also prove to be a stumbling block in those trade deals that are stopping Liam Fox from Werrity-sniffing. Why waste a lot of time and effort negotiating if there's a real chance the next shower of shits will rip it up anyway. Like the GFA, for example .....

I most definitely would not buy a used car from McVey.

The EU negotiating team appears to the UK Government's frustration appears to have been very welcoming to other parties meeting with them and naming representations - Labour, ERG () LibDem, UKIP (), SNP (including the FM), representatives from (appropriate) select committees (I recall Hilary Benn going across).

And even more irritatingly to the UK Government Barnier had made a point of going to NI to understand the issues (shame the UK's own ministers didn't do this earlier as opposed to belatedly saying that they hadn't realised people voted along sectarian lines ).

In the absence of a proper cross party approach from the UK Government, this was/is the best that the EU can do.

Mother "You all start giving up like she knew you would. We should be better than that."

These threads try to assess facts & expert opinions rather than wishes.

Do you read Belgium - not British - analysts ?
Those I read and those in Germany still think No Deal is the most likely outcome

That's because it is the only outcome with a clear path
Noone has to do anything clever or brave to make No deal happen
May & the HoC just have to dither & procrastinate another 4 weeks - well within their skill set

wrt Revoke, Tusk summed up the overwhelming opinion on the continent that there is almost no chance.
Personally, I think since then that the Tiggers, with their push for PV, have increased the chance quite a bit, maybe to 10% now

< DG will now tell me I'm too optimistic ! Maybe I am >

The government are the government, do you think it would be beneficial for the EU to try and negotiate with the government and the opposition at the same time, when each wants radically different things? Governments negotiate with each other, that's what happens.

The EU wouldn't be negotiating with both,
just checking before they agree a 21-month extension for renegotiations
that both leaders have agreed to drop the FOM & ECJ red lines and both want SM + a Customs Arrangement

They've already spend all this time negotiating a WA that gets thrown out.
They don't want to waste several more months and have to start yet again.

However, this is academic if May insists on only a short extension

The problem is that the PM has no majority for any deal and her govt could fall any time

thanks Bigchoc, maybe I misunderstood the previous post then.

I would say that the likelihood of TM agreeing to drop the red lines as you cite them is (hopefully) fairly small. I certainly hope she doesn't agree to do that.

Agree that if the extension is short it is unlikely she would have opted to do that.

Some hilarious tweets on that Esther MacVey Ladies for Leave page

I would want Esther MacVey to leave too

Thought this was the start of a menopause advert for thrush cream or vaginal dryness... cringe

They must have changed the meaning of 'lady' if Esther now fits into that bracket.

Whatever next?