Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

SKY reporting the Citizens rights vote from last night is not accepted by the EU as they are not going to get into 'mini deals'. So that MP has gone for nothing.

I don't agree 1tis - I think it's good he made a stand on an important issue, presumably at some personal cost if he's lost a ministerial post.

Sometimes standing up and being counted is costly.

DGR what do you mean you are backing no deal ? Do you mean in a Paddypower bet scenario or are you changing your coat?

I couldn't give a monkeys what bookmakers think. And since Tusks statement two weeks ago I've repeatedly stated I believe we are headed for no deal with no way out.

I would love to be proved wrong, but I think that's going to happen. Moreover I believe it was always meant to happen. We've all been played.

SKY reporting the Citizens rights vote from last night is not accepted by the EU as they are not going to get into 'mini deals'. So that MP has gone for nothing.

Did anyone here foresee that ? It's consistent with "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". It also serves a stark reminder that the HoC is no longer in charge here.

I'm still seeing no-deal as the outcome here.

The most frequent comment I hear regarding Brexit is , "I just want It dealt with/over" or words to that effect. I think if you offered the large middle ground a choice of revoke and no more Brexit talk or another 10 of it taking up everything then plenty would be in favor of revoking.

EU not doing 'mini deals' could mean we're fucked if TM refuses to revoke.

I can't see the EU granting us an extension without a good reason

They have even outlined what a "good reason" looks like. If anyone was listening ....

Peregrina
Since his interjection would help me directly I am grateful for his effort.
It does highlight the need to pay attention to detail. The EU have said no 'mini deals' as they want it all to be resolves properly and they are only going to accept one of the 3 options and none of the UK's 'wishful thinking'.

Revoke Article 50 is the obvious solution to this brexit nonsense.

We would, of course, have to issue an abject apology to the EU27 for the time and money this brexit nonsense has caused them, and we would find it very difficult to regain the respect we once had as a leading European nation.

However it is still the only sensible solution.

They want to deal with a sane negotiating team and who can blame them. How did it all descend into such chaos?

PMK

DGR are you my Dad I have a £10 bet on with him for the. same reason. If you were you would be in your 80s and not com3 from Brum [ grin]

There are four people whose Twitter accounts I read daily for news/opinion about Brexit - Ian Dunt, David Allen Green, Steve Bullock, and James Patrick. Three out of four have now stopped tweeting about Brexit. I am actually a bit distressed about this.

I have a bottle of champagne in the rack
it is not in the fridge yet
but to open in on 29th March would be the best thing
and I think I'd even justify it to my late ultra leave boss who died age 54

I think Labour's Starmer's 6 tests were meant to fail because they he recognises that Remain is our best deal.

I see in the news today that overall immigration is up, despite EU immigration being down. A government spokesperson said in response to this 'we will be able to control immigration properly after brexit'. They must think we are stupid (but then they might, in some cases, be right.

David Allen Green is still tweeting or retweeting about Brexit. But he's writing a book on it so I guess he's trying to not get distracted.

James Patrick - never sure what to make of him. Veers too conspiracy theory and attention-seeking for me to take him seriously.

George Eustice's seat is looking very weak for him.

2015 results

2017 results And that's with him absorbing his Kipper voters (for he was formerly a Kipper candidate).

Phew finally caught up.
I remain confused, worried and vacillating between optimism and pessimism. I'm going to sleep. My brain is so tired of keeping up with the parliamentary shenanigans but things change daily in the small details but add to the big picture so need to keep up to date with it all otherwise I'd be lost. Less stressed maybe but have no idea what was happening.

This is so stupid: Labour moving towards plan to let May’s Brexit Deal pass if it faces public vote

Yes SwedishEdith, I take James Patrick with a pinch of salt, but he's interesting to read for the real cynic perspective. He's very doom orientated, but he does seem to have been ahead of the curve on all the social media influencing.

Genuinely sad that Steve Bullock has felt he needed to stop tweeting though. Particularly for the reasons that he has.

So many things wrong with abstaining on WA to let it pass:

It would be a sham vote and an exercise in faux democracy. MPs who vehemently oppose May's deal allow it to pass (by abstaining) so they can then oppose it in a subsequent referendum. Logically if May's deal passes in the Commons (even courtesy of abstentions) then that should be the end of the matter.

It would give the WA a status it should not have. It legitimises the WA to the public who don’t understand the implications of it, who just see that Parliament has okayed it. Leavers will always spin Parl support for WA as proof of support for Brexit. It makes no sense to vote for the wrong deal as a means to an end, when you don’t know what that end is.

Importantly MPs would be voting blind without a precise idea of what would be on a PV ballot paper and the terms. No Deal + WA votes could feasibly outnumber Remain, thus underlining support for Leave.

You can be sure the Tories will search for a way to renege on the PV or rig the vote to favour Leave. What happens if the commons can’t agree on the PV terms? Or there’s a change in leadership of either or both parties before the PV? Or further party breakaways?

I don't think Labour MPs want a PV.

Has this been posted?

Liam Fox blows £100,000 on 'vanity project' podcast heard by just 8,400 people
EXCLUSIVE: The series cost £12.70 for every single listener

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liam-fox-blows-100000-vanity-14069762