Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

manifestos aren't carved in stone from on high

There was one election with a stone carving.

I'm still grateful that I have a consistently Remain supporting party that is not the ineffective LibDems to vote for

No dilemma for me

Another day at work with clients whose faces fell when I pointed out to them they have multiple service suppliers in the EU
(so outside WTO rules if we crashed out)
and thus have contractual issues in a matter of weeks .......

Advice to business has been utterly hopeless

Talk1n that must be very frustrating. I mean, after 3 years you would think most businesses would have checked at least?

Lonely
Its all project fear. Yesterday I was given the Germany will demand a trade deal line ....

I'm an FSB member and they have been very vague and bland because to lay it on the line what could happen will cost them members.

Many of my clients are local government - a LOT of councillors are Brexiters and they still believe in the Rainbow Unicorns.

There has been no good advice for small businesses to resilience check their systems
and most people have switched off from the debate and
just want Brexit over with
as I have been told many, many times

The 6 tests were based on quotes/promises from the tories/leavers - sort of "this is what you promised so it's only fair to hold you to it"

For whatever reasons that emphasis never had traction - hence comments about them being unrealistic, should have been badged as remain, designed to fail etc

Criticism of the 6 tests is basically criticism of the leave camp.

And we need to respond to 'just want brexit over' by 'OK, then revoke' every other option leaves us with upto a decade of negotiations.

(And we need to respond to 'just want brexit over' by 'OK, then revoke' every other option leaves us with up to a decade of negotiations.}

True.
If May revoked on 29 March many problems disappear by March 30th.
Of course all the buggering around has created a whole raft of other problems which will still see a fair amount of industry leaving, as any that have made a move will not bother to reverse their actions, they can't afford to do it twice.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/02/28/threequarters_of_crucial_brexit_border_it_systems_at_risk_says_nao/

Six of the eight border IT systems viewed as critical for a no-deal Brexit are at risk of failure, compounded by their reliance on each other and the fact delivery partners aren't ready.

(contd)

Here is the problem ....
www.yell.com/ucs/UcsSearchAction.do?keywords=Customs+Clearance+Agents&location=Dover&scrambleSeed=405766718
When I worked in the docks there were around 60 clearance agent companies, working 24/7 with up to ten clearance clerks each

those folks are all in their 50's and 60's
nobody has the skills in that part of the country

"If May revoked on 29 March many problems disappear by March 30th"

Seriously?! I'm going to be charitable and assume this is just a goady post, not malicious in intent, thought it could easily be read that way.

I know what my reaction would be if we had "revoke" on the 29th March and "no problem" doesn't describe it accurately.

I'd be delighted if TM revoked on the 29th
around 7pm would be nice

It would then mean that a lot of the year end accruals would not be needed
and the stress of Purdah would be massively reduced

I know what my reaction would be if we had "revoke" on the 29th March and "no problem" doesn't describe it accurately.

Is that a threat ?

It's amazing how anyone can think keeping as we are now would actually cause them a "problem" Leavers have had plain sailing compared to the half of the country understanding the consequences and trying to resolve them in advance (even against people in business still believing in unicorns). This is where I almost hope we do No Deal - people need to see consequences.

DG I did post that further down and said you had predicted it (re IT).

It's all a blur now

For goodness sake dgd needs to renew her passport beginning of next year for when she applies to university. Wonder what colour it will be?

Jo Swinson apparently voted for the Labour amendment by accident. Is it really that difficult for MPs to find the right lobby ?

{Seriously?! I'm going to be charitable and assume this is just a goady post, not malicious in intent, thought it could easily be read that way. }

Not at all if you use some logic.
All medicines, food and so on continue as now so no need for disruption.
All the UK gov preparation would be wasted, along with many Billions of Pounds and Euros spent, and you have some disgruntled ERGers who won't make as much money and a bunch of 'Leavers' who will eventually work out the UK hasn't left.
Revoking is simply trading one pile of shit for another. People will be 'angry' to varying degrees whatever happens.
The 'resolution' of the shitfest will be quicker and cheaper by revoking.

DGR what do you mean you are backing no deal ? Do you mean in a Paddypower bet scenario or are you changing your coat?

I can't see the EU granting us an extension without a good reason.

It's going to be the WA or Revoke as there's no appetite for a crash out and not enough enthusiasm for a PV (much as I think we should have one). May will do whatever causes the least amount of damage to the Tories.

I know what my reaction would be if we had "revoke" on the 29th March and "no problem" doesn't describe it accurately.

Whatever your reaction would be I doubt it would have much of an impact on the rest of us. Certainly nothing in comparison to the impact of a no deal crash out. Given the choice between leavers being pissed off and chaos, I know which I would choose.

Revoke on 29th March and the GFA is protected. A huge win in my book.

Other things, no it won't bring the European Medicines Agency back, or the European Banking Agency. It might be too late to save Honda, but it might stall a move by Nissan and BMW. Both big wins in my book.

For DB heavily dependent on medication which comes from Italy and Germany in some cases, it means he will be able to sleep more easily knowing that his supply shouldn't be interrupted.On a personal level, it means we won't have to stump up for visas, green cards and international driving permits when visiting family on the continent. It won't unretire a good dentist I had who went early because his wife worked for the EMA.

As for the Leave voting cousin who is more interested in football - it won't make much difference to him that I can see. For the Leave voting nephew who still has a British passport but lived abroad for most of his adult life, and just happened to be in the UK on a year long work placement, and then cleared off back to the country he's made his home, well it won't affect him either. For my son's Leave voting friend who voted on a 'dip, dip, dip, this one is it' basis, it might preserve his job, so he should benefit.

Am quite happy for leavers to threaten a 'problem' on revoke, given their complete inability to agree on anything concrete so far, then on revoke I'll sleep well knowing we've escaped disaster, untroubled by nasty (unicorn) problems.

I can't see the EU granting us an extension without a good reason.
Me neither! Didn't Angela Merkel say yesterday that she's not minded to grant am extension? And it needs to be unanimous. So...if HoC voted against No Deal and then vote for an extension, there's still the possibility that EU will say no and we leave with no Deal. Right? That'd be the accidental no deal scenario so many regular posters on here have been warning about

But with Revoke I would then like to see the politicians make a concerted effort to tackle the UK's problems. That would be a pretty good quid pro quo in my book.