Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Well, I am trying to find some kind of link where anyone in the EU said that, all I can find are articles spinning and people "exploring" the idea, not a firm agreement. Juncker said delay beyond EU elections is possible, not that it is a given. And in any case, it needs EU27 agreement. According to Guy Vershofstad:

If the UK Parliament rejects her deal, Theresa May would like to extend the negotiating period. In my firm opinion, if this happens, this can never be longer than a couple of months so that a cross-party majority can be found. But certainly not 21 months! The Union has been taken hostage by the Brexit already for too long. The UK has had almost two years to make up its mind, now it is time to decide: A deal, no deal or stay. For the Union it is high time that we can spend our energy on more positive projects and the in depth reforms Europe desperately needs./10157412574245016/ …

I am concerned that this belief that the EU are going to hand out extensions like sweeties is not concentrating minds.

Or in the order they'll be decided:

Option 1 - Withdrawal Agreement, then a transition period with the future relationship with Europe as the new battleground. That would essentially put every option except Remain back on the table.

Option 2 - Extension if EU agrees and new agreement, changing red lines.

Option 3a - Revoke / Remain

Option 3b - Crash out

The great thing about Leave and Remain is that they give people something to believe in, and that they can argue about, because they think they understand what’s happening. Whereas who can bring themself to “believe” in any of our political parties, what they claim to stand for, what they say and what they do? And most people know they don’t properly understand politics and find it boring.

So basically, go back to your constituencies and tell the voters, "you are wrong?", yes I can see how that'll go down well.

Going back to this posting, May has already been back to the country, with her GE, with a Hard Brexit firmly on offer. Effectively saying to the Leave voting electorate 'Is this the Brexit you had in mind?' If the answer had been Yes, she would have got the stonking majority she expected. Some Remain MPs in Leave constituencies were returned with comfortable majorities. What does that tell us? Not a lot perhaps, except that for many voters there are other issues besides Brexit.

As for those Leavers who didn't bother to vote in the GE, I for one don't want to hear them prattling about democracy when they can't be bothered to exercise a hard won right to vote.

George Eustace, DEFRA Minister has resigned.

I think we're all very aware any extension request needs the agreement of the EU27, and that any request which didn't have significantly more to it than "we need a bit more time to keep fucking around" would be rejected. I don't think there is a belief that the EU will hand out extensions like sweeties .

I haven't got time to trawl for anything to back up my belief that there have been indications a request for an extension to allow something truly deadlock breaking like a PV would be looked on favourably, but I am sure I have read articles saying that. Which is not the same, of course, as someone with authority saying "yes, we will definitely grant an extension if it's for reason a, b or c".

I think he feels he can do a Costa from the backbenches, but pro-Brexitly. In your dreams, mate.

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
BREAKING Defra George Eustice has just resigned from the government, he cites delay to Article 50

He's a Brexity Brexiteer.

Crucially in his resignation letter he says he WILL now vote for May's deal. Unamended.

@peregrina I hope you would accept that the result of a general election would be influence by lots of things, not just Brexit? Additionally...

• Both parties with a serious shot at forming a government campaigned in 2017 favouring enacting the result of the referendum
• Both increased their share of the vote by a large amount
• TM as the leader of the largest party, remained PM.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

for what it's worth, I thought her campaign was absolutely dire and that she deserved to lose, but the facts are, she didn't.

Crucially in his resignation letter he says he WILL now vote for May's deal. Unamended.

1 down, 229 to go ?

A major problem with a GE before exiting the EU (or not) is that it will become multi faceted, with both sides bigging up how they might resolve the inequalities behind Brexit.
Currently both main sides are full of poo with both having a track record of having ignored the UK's real issues over the years.
Unless the UK has actually decided to leave or not, the financial status and the approach is almost totally unknown. With a hard or WA exit, there is no real plan for which industries will survive or depart, far too much is unknown. You can't run an election without knowing how much the chancellor has in his back pocket to spend on whatever might be 'promised'. Thus Brexit has to be decided ASAP and any 'voting' by the public or parliament must be focused on Brexit alone.
Once definitely 'in or out' THEN you can have a -punch up- GE.

Surely George Eustice already voted for the WA as he was a member of the Government - so the fact he says he will vote for the WA doesn't actually improve the arithmetic?

{1 down, 229 to go ?}
Did he have the fish or the chicken?

Your right prettybird he voted for the WA in the last vote so him continuing to do so is no change. Still 230 to go.

We like to call him George Useless here in his constituency.

I'm pretty sure that a lot of voters at the last election (myself included) believed that the labour party would eventually back a second referendum while we knew the tories would not

I think there was a definite "anything but a Tory Brexit" vibe about the last election - which might be more pronounced, depending on the circumstances.

The right and proper thing to do - for any party - would be to revoke/cancel Brexit, and then put any Leave agitators to the sword and demand they produce a plan to vote on before we go through this hell again. Won't happen, of course.

Meantime, I'm starting to sense a danger from Theresa May starting to realise (remember she's a bit dim) that she has managed to lock herself in a room where every exit is marked "split the Tory party" (especially in light of the paradigm shift in voter identity).

I have no doubt that she really would take the whole country (particularly NI and Scotland) down with her, if that were the case.

However I'm still backing no-deal. Whatever happens in the HoC.

The Labour '6 tests' has already failed in that they require whatever 'deal' with the EU to be the same or better than remaining in, and as the UK (and EU) has already shelled out Billions in preparations the 6 tests can NEVER be met.
If they had aggregated the 'tests' and named them properly as 'Remain' and then made moves to follow it through the story would have been a lot different. Attempting to sound clever and dress 6 tests that look and OUGHT to be classified as remain was a stupid idea given the already divided populace. The fact that around a quarter of the public have no idea what exiting the EU really entails just highlights the stupidity of making such a ridiculous set of 'tests'.

If there was to be another GE now, then I would not vote for any party that did not at least have a PV in their manifesto. So as long as what they are saying now was to hold true in another GE then labour would have my vote again.

manifestos aren't carved in stone from on high - as Tories expecting to stay in the SM have discovered.

That said, I agree. I would vote Labour if they were supporting a PV. Meaning my MP would be returned easily - especially given she supports a PV herself.

Labour's "6 Tests" were a crock from the minute they were defined as there was No. Deal. Possible. that would the same or better for the UK than remaining in the EU

They were just another example of UK cake-ism, just from a different political party

So Tory agriculture minister resigns George Eustace so he can be 'freeeeee' to vote on the critical votes. I'd like to be freeeeeeee! of all this brexit crap tooooooo!

I am in precisely the opposite position. Voting for my MP because their party (Labour) committed itself to enacting the Leave result at the 2017 election. Now I am aware that they have no intention of keeping to that position, I shan't be giving that MP my vote next time.

Labour's 6 tests were designed to be failed, whoever said that on here just now is completely right on that.

What politicians say: We cannot break our manifesto promises.
What politicians do: Break manifesto promises left, right and centre.