Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Sos - IF Corbyn were to win a No Confidence Vote (big "if"), then under the FTPA, there would still need to be another 10 days for the parties at WM to try to form a Government, before Parliament would be dissolved and a GE called.

So the country would still be in limbo.

I think that thinking too much about the actual odds for no deal is a waste of time! I don’t know much about politics, but I’m certain that the bookies don’t have a crystal ball, so the 10% chance or whatever is a bit meaningless. What’s more important is how the odds are changing. So, is a no deal Brexit considered more or less likely now than before yesterday’s voting?

Also, if I bet on no deal and win, can I get them to pay my winnings in Euros, please?

On the basis that the UK is not about to become dedicated Europhiles any time soon and polls are still too close to even for any action, the UK should leave on 29March as there is no way anything more decisive will happen by having a couple of months extension.
NO ONE is saying what they will do or how they will do it, to get out of the mess the UK is in and until something radical happens it is unlikely to change. It is blindingly obvious that hardly anyone in government or HoC is acting 'in good faith' and that it has become a massive 'party game' (as in children's party, not governmental) to think of little wheezes rather than actually running the country.

May will get her WA through.

I'm not convinced at all May will get the WA through. Yes you might get some ERG types voting for it worried that they won't get any brexit at all if they don't but on the other side you could easily get remainers who were tempted to vote for it to avoid no deal sensing they might get their PV or a longer extension and therefore now choosing to vote against.

I have a suspicion these groups might just balance each other out leaving her about where she was last time. I struggle to believe that after losing by such a huge amount so many MPs will do an about turn and support it particularly now they will see having an extension as a bit of a safety net.

May will get her WA through

Agree, i'd bet on it!

There is not a majority for any other action and i don't believe May will accept a far longer EU specified extension period, let alone a PV ! plus MPs are sick of Brexit.

So, i think she ll win over ERG and enough Labour brexit enablers to see her across the line.

I'd put money on soubry voting for the WA

{May will get her WA through}

There are only 3 possible outcomes in the EU's view.
The WA which they would prefer.
Revoke, which would also be quite popular but seeing the amount of turmoil being created by the UK it might be through clenched teeth.
Or 'crash out' in some messy form or another. The EU is accepting this is a possibility so doing all they can to minimise damage to the EU.

All the buggering about the UK is up to can only result in one of the 3 outcomes.

On the basis that the UK is not about to become dedicated Europhiles any time soon and polls are still too close to even for any action

In fairness, the poll of polls posted a couple of pages back was 2016 data - not current. It was pre referendum news. It leaves us none the wiser as to what would happen 3 years later

Why do you think the EU will give an extension for a PV? Or indeed a GE? It's all just kick the can manoeveres and the poll figures are far too soft, especially once you factor in turnout and dodgy electioneering. After all, the WA is just for a orderly withdrawal, you can have your GE and your PV and start the real negotiations with a new set of ministers when you want. After the WA is signed and the GFA is protected.

We in Europe are wasting far too much time and money on this, I don't see an appetite for drawing it out further, epecially as LeClerc says, there is still no plan! We can't sit around forever waiting for the Brits to do their homework.

whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

2019 poll of polls.

Lots of other interesting polls on there too.

I mean, there isn't even a plan for the PV! How long will it take to decide the options?

Extension won't solve anything motheroffourdragons the choice is still the same.......WA, no deal............and a very far behind PV. With no concensus on any of those after nearly 3 years having an extension is not miraculously going to give us a consensus.

Only 12 days to wait to doomsday ( sigh).

Why do you think the EU will give an extension for a PV? Or indeed a GE?

They've previously said they would, iirc.

The 3 options I mentioned are the only ones that actually matter. Whether the UK has a PV/GE/something else or just a general pissing session to decide what the UK wants at the end of the day the EU expect to hear one of the 3 outcomes and don't particularly care how the UK gets to that conclusion.
Had the UK gone into this with good faith over 2 years ago, the EU would have been very happy to help as they understand that when all this fuss blows over the UK will still need to be on good terms with the EU, if it wants to eat. The UK has embarked on a process of wanton destruction, attitudes will be hardening against the UK even if it is hidden.

If you look at that poll of polls, you have 47% of people saying they would still vote leave. I'm assuming that's based on people who say they would vote and excluded the don't knows. Who knows what they might do on election day. 47%. That is a scary amount of people in denial of reality. 6% difference, with a marin of error of a couple of %. And the figures aren't budging. There's another one. whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-how-would-you-vote-2/

That's nothing, you can't go to the EU and say look, it is worthwhile hanging on for a bit, we can get the people to reverse their decision. You don't have the data to make that kind of argument. The country is completely divided.

Option 1 - Withdrawal Agreement, then a transition period with the future relationship with Europe as the new battleground. That would essentially put every option except Remain back on the table.

Option 2 - Crash out

Option 3 - Revoke / Remain

Option 4 - Extension if EU agrees and new agreement, changing red lines.

The problem with the polls still seems to be that people are still answering based on an abstract version of Leave. When the choice is Remain v TM’s WA or Remain v No Deal, Remain does better.

If a 21 month extension happened that's December 2020, so 4 and a half years after the vote to Leave, we'll still not even have agreed the pathway to leaving.

edition.cnn.com/2019/02/27/uk/what-happens-after-brexit-intl-gbr/index.html

"Brits now identify more as Leavers or Remainers than they do as Conservative or Labour supporters, according to a recent study. Demographically, that has blown up the old political system (lovers of psephology can read more about this here). This means that not only would uniting a party behind anything be near impossible, but dragging the voters along with you is now more complicated than ever."