Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Re Labour, is it just me who feels Corbyn's 2nd ref plans are all hot air?

I feel suspicious about Corbyn & Labour talking about a 2nd referendum as well. Politicians speak with forked tongues.

sos The backstop is only an issue if the UK govt wants a future trade deal that would require a hard NI border

e.g. an US FTA which would require the UK to lower food standards and let the US healthcare giants buy up the NHS

If we choose instead to negotiate a Single Market deal, with a Customs Arrangement, then the the backstop would never be invoked

The EU would much prefer an SM deal, because it would maintain trade and hence business & profits for us both

m.youtube.com/watch?v=JD2P9Px3enI

DD voting by mistake reminded me of this

whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

EU Poll of Polls is based on the average share of the vote for ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ in the six most recent polls of voting intentions in the EU Referendum.

Mother Only the PM can ask for an extension, or to Revoke

If a GE is called, Parliament would be dissolved for 5 weeks, so they couldn't attempt to force her to take either option

If May decides at any time for No Deal, all she has to do is call a GE without asking for an extension and No Deal will be automatic

An extension has to be unanimously agreed by the E27 and by the UK - the EU can't extend on their own.

Pmk

Corbyn has finally, very grudgingly conceded the idea of a PV

However, although Starmer says there would have to be a Remain option,
Corbyn's office is still saying the PV would be on May's WA vs his version - which doesn't exist
So no Remain option yet at least.

The Tiggers had an amendment for a PV Remain vs May's WA, but the Speaker didn't choose it, because Labour were opposed

(That's why a couple of Tiggers abstained on the Cooper amendment, btw: they wanted a PV, rather than yet more time for May to turn the screws on & for Labour to pretend Corbyn would allow a Remain vote)

Corbyn has finally, very grudgingly conceded the idea of a PV

If there's a Remain / Leave again. Would TM and Corbs be the lead Leavers- the dream team together? Or would Boris agree to being wheeled out again?

Who'd be the spokespeople on each side now? NF will be on hols. Gisela Stuart has gone.
Caroline Lucas would still do remain.

But we didn't vote on why she should ask for an extension. So I wonder, if she does ask, whether she will just make it for something they won't grant. I suspect a request would be vetoed atm but surely the question is what we are asking for the time for (sorry badly phrased!).

There won't be a GE to stymie events.

2/3rds of MPs have to vote for a GE under the FTPA and they won't do that unless the Govt has an extension to A50.

However, its likely as not, her deal will get through as ERG types (lab and tory) see brexit slipping through their fingers.

Is there any clue how close the numbers are with the WA vote?

Do most of the Tories and DUP support it? If the ERG cave in and support TM will the Withdrawal Agreement pass or does it still need a certain number of Labour MPs to support it?

GE's are very expensive. I also think Brexit is one hot potato not many parties want to end up with. It would highlight the divisions in Labour and the country as well as forever being the cause of Leavers not getting their own personal type of Brexit. One of those situations where the grass will always look greener. I also don't think May would risk it at this late stage as she has put everything on the line for this (yes, the shit state we are in) and as said, she's too stubborn to back down and would rather crash out and beat everyone with the "but I had a plan!" stick.

As an aside, I would be keen to find out if the 20 ERGgers have tax concerns...

all she has to do is call a GE

Would the HoC deliberately put us in a situation where no deal is unavoidable, just for the sake of a chance of a GE?

news.sky.com/story/the-smart-money-is-on-the-brexit-can-being-kicked-down-the-road-again-11650467

Westminster faces a different set of Brexit choices - there are now plausible routes to delay, and a new referendum, but also the increased credibility of both those outcomes could yet motivate rebellious Tory Brexiters to cash in their chips and accept the PM's deal.

The real question here is - what will the EU ask for if the UK asks for an extension.

I read somewhere, but now cannot find, that if an extension is granted it's a one shot thing and so if it's only for 3 months and nothing is achieved, there's no other recourse to extend.

Did I remember that right or is that a figment of my very confused imagination?

I suspect this news is much more significant than the shenanigans in Westminster.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47400679

Net migration to the UK from countries outside the European Union has hit its highest level for 15 years, says the Office for National Statistics.

(contd)

Just tell Leavers that it can only be due to Brexit, and loads of non-Europeans (Indians, Pakistanis, Africans) rushing to the UK to replace all the EU nationals we're driving out.

PMK

Thank you red and good luck with the house move!

Odds for a no-deal Brexit by 29/3 now 9/1 (according to Paddypower).

I don't understand betting, what do those odds mean?

My worry with a People's Vote is that the dirty tricks brigade would be out in force again, unless Parliament passed some very strict and enforceable rules about what could be published. So no lies on the side of a bus about how much we send to the NHS as an example.

I don’t understand it either so I have to double check every time 😂

I think this means they think it is 10 % likely to happen (1 divided by 9+1)

I’m sure somebody can explain it better though!

I would say 9/1 means not an odds on certainty but not completely impossible. Which is not that wild a prediction.

Sorry - and proving I struggle with this!) it’s 1/9 not 9/1

I think this still means they think no-deal is 10% likely. I just got the order of the numbers wrong (total embarrassment).

I wouldn’t normally use paddypower as a way of telling the future but they were iirc right about the referendum result.