In all likelihood, what do you think will happen?

[Holidayshopping]

I have spent months hoping for a PV and then May revoking A50, and I still would like that to happen, but I’m starting to think now that she thinks there are too many people who just want Brexit no matter what!

I THINK that there will be an extension and then still no one will be able to agree on a plan. I can see a General Election being called soon as well-maybe with increased support for a centralist party?!

{ it's a real disaster that is totally man-made }
The prat Cameron started it off but Mrs May was the one who really stoked the fire up. If she had been intelligent and properly weighed up the financial disaster that is on the way she would have made efforts to show to the public that actually leaving the EU is a bad move. Leaving the Single Market and even Customs Union wasn't on the original 'departure' list. They were tagged on later by those who see an opportunity to make big money at the UK's expense.

Peregrina
I am not at all reassured that insulin supplies may be OK, because the relatives I am worried about have other severe medical conditions.

The JDRF update links to these written questions and answers:

www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2019-02-25/HCWS1358/

www.england.nhs.uk/eu-exit/medicines/medicines-faq/

What in particular is not covered here?

From today’s papers - “EU leaders have repeatedly told Theresa May they would welcome a Brexit delay if she gave them concrete reasons, such as holding a second referendum.

Mr Barnier added any extension must be for a specific way of breaking the deadlock.

He said: “The question that the EU27 will ask is: What (is it) for? The answer cannot be that Britain wants to postpone a problem. One would want to solve it."

He added that any decision to allow an extension would have to be unanimously approved by EU leaders at a summit on March 21.”

@Clavinova -the phrase "while we never give guarantees" does suggest that faith is playing a part in this. Which is not good enough.

I can't see any mention of Parkinson's disease but don't know which drugs exactly are administered for this condition.

I don't have much confidence that the Government will get it right.

In an ideal world I would want to see ' these drugs are used to treat Parkinson's disease and the supply is guaranteed'.

That's just one condition - other relatives have illnesses which are difficult to diagnose and it's been trial and error to see what works. Once they have found the correct medication though, they don't want to be shunted onto something else.

bellinisurge
Clavinova -the phrase "while we never give guarantees" does suggest that faith is playing a part in this. Which is not good enough.

Although of course, Stephen Hammond and Matt Hancock both voted to Remain in the EU - they are probably hoping for a second referendum/revoke - with statements to match.

Peregrina

www.parkinsons.org.uk/news/medication-supplies-and-brexit

Parkinson's UK have also met with pharmaceutical industry bodies and raised concerns with Westminster and the devolved UK governments. Our purpose is to ensure sufficient preparations have been made so people with Parkinson's can get their medicines, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations.

In fact, at meetings with industry bodies we have been pleased with their preparations to ensure they have enough stock of medicines to supply everyone with Parkinson's.

I think a delay will be a disaster. It wont achieve anything because the fundelment problem remains.

Parliment cant vote through the deal unless the backstop changes. Europe wont change the backstop especially if we keep prevaricating and take no deal off the table.

But the main problem we be with what happens in British politics in the long run. There'll be significant splintering of British politics. Labour has already split, conservatives have the ERG, which even if it hasnt officially split, has in practice. And the govenment wont be able to get anything through. Neither will Labour.

There is no solution to that except a PV or an election. But i think that could make the situation worse...

Theres a good number of labour mps who will lose their seat in the long term if a peoples vote goes through. If labour dont support leave they will lose seats to anyone that does.

Which ultimately means in an election there is a good chance of seeing Ukip make a rapid resurgence taking seats from both conservative and Labour.i think the
likelihood of a seriously hung parliament is probably quite high and well enter an era of back room deals to get anything through.

And the real big issues like universal credit wont ever get sorted

The Pharma Industry is making plans to ensure up to 6/10 weeks supply yes? what about after that and for future new treatments?

As i've repeatedly said to you before, all we are doing is standing still, what are the benefits of Brexit for those with long term conditions or anyone else for that matter?

Answer: ???

Tbh i don’t know what will happen but I don’t think you can rank the options form bad to worse easily. I think if we crash out we will rejoin pretty soon (after the country has been picked over by the disaster capitalists) we might be sadder and wiser and better committed to building a strong future rather than banging on about spitfires or whatever.

However if we stay in because of a second people’s vote we remain a divided nation with the far right on the rise and people disengaged from the political process. It’s not a happy ending

Who can say which option would work out better in the long run? The only think I’m sure of at this point is that David Cameron is a fucking irresponsible idiot

I notice that Clavinova didn't highlight this bit from the link given about Parkinsons.

A no-deal Brexit has the potential to disrupt supplies, but please be assured that your pharmacist will make every effort to ensure there are no delays with your medications.

My relative is right to be concerned, although fortunately he's the sort of person who keeps on the ball. Not so with MIL and her medication, although her pharmacy do seem very helpful.

My oh my, needing to be vigilant to make sure you get your supply of medicines is a long long way from spending £350 million a week extra on the NHS. Or 'easiest deals in history' or the usual Leaver claptrap.

jasjas1973
The Pharma Industry is making plans to ensure up to 6/10 weeks supply yes?

It's 14-18 weeks for Insulin - which is the only I've seen confirmed.

The Government have contracted supply routes for at least 6 months away from Dover:

Securing, via the Department of Transport (DfT), additional roll on, roll off freight capacity (away from the short straits) from 29 March.

Contracts have been signed by DfT with two ferry companies for the next six months. These routes are away from the Dover Straits where most goods flow from the EU and will run from the following routes: Cherbourg–Poole, Le Havre–Portsmouth, Roscoff–Plymouth, Caen – Portsmouth, Vlaardingen–Immingham, Cuxhaven–Immingham and Vlaardingen–Felixstowe. The Government has purchased the tickets from the shipping freight operators, and these will be sold on at market rate.

There is cross Government agreement that all medicines and medical products will be prioritised on these alternative routes to ensure the flow of all these products may continue unimpeded.

We have worked with the pharmaceutical industry to ensure that planes are contracted to bring in medical radioisotopes under the appropriate specialist conditions.

Also: making changes to, or clarifications of, certain regulatory requirements so that companies can continue to sell their products in the UK even if we have no deal.The MHRA has for this scenario consulted on, and published, further guidance on how medicines, medical devices and clinical trials will be regulated.

Just spotted this -

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-european-agencies-medicine-chemical-aerospace-uk-pay-remain-a8236916.html

Theresa May reveals UK willing to pay to remain part of European agencies for medicine, chemicals and aviation

PM says she would seek ‘associate membership’ of the bodies in the negotiations with Brussels.

Responding to the Prime Minister’s speech, Dr Andrew Dearden, the British Medical Association (BMA) treasurer, welcomed the decision to explore associate membership of the medicines agency.

He added:“The EMA helps the UK with timely and safe access to medicines, and likewise helps the EU access medicines that are developed here in the UK. We want to see the Government work closely with the EMA through a formal agreement to continue to support and participate in their assessments for medicines approvals.”

The Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI)–a body representing pharmaceutical companies in the UK–added that every month, 45 million packs of medicine move from the UK to the EU and 37 million come the other way.

“That is why the Prime Minister’s commitment to seek cooperation on medicines regulation would be the best outcome for patients, not just in the UK but across Europe,”

welcomed the decision to explore associate membership of the medicines agency.

Explore does not equal guarantee.

If the unicorns the brexiters had promised did exist, there wouldn't be links to websites trying to reassure people about medicines, because those websites wouldn't exist. There wouldn't be exploratory talks to try to opt back into something that nearly 3 years ago we said we wanted nothing to do with.

Peregrina

Local stockpiling is unnecessary and could cause shortages in other areas, which could put patient care at risk. It is important that patients order their repeat prescriptions as normal and keep taking their medicines as normal.

You are not convincing anyone Clavinova. Ten years ago people worrying about getting their supply of medication wasn't on anyone's radar. Now it is. The sort of discussions we had then were about postcode lotteries with access to new treatments being patchy. We didn't have public bodies telling people not to stockpile medicines.

Why now if Brexit is so very very wonderful? We should be have big pharma desperate to open up plants here. You know, they need us more than we need them.

I suppose I should add that I am aware of rationing in the UK and also in the US during WW2. These of course were total wars which required a certain amount of sacrifice from the populace.

Most Island countries don't seem to have a whole lot going for them. If they are lucky they have great looking beaches which aides greatly the sector of tourism. They probably have at least a decent fishing sector, and a very limited amount of agriculture depending on their size and terrain.

What they can do to increase their standard of living is to develop their human capital, the skills of their people so that they can import semi-finished goods or raw materials and turn them into high quality finished products for export.

They need to be welcoming of foreigners and foreign businesses to facilitate this and also learn to speak English and perhaps Spanish if they don't know how to already.

The UK is / was lucky in that it sits right next to mainland Europe, speaks English, and is large enough to have a decent sized agricultural sector and fishing sector.

Still, it is an Island country / kingdom heavily dependent on trade and shipping which is why its current path seems so damned suicidal.

Peregrina
You are not convincing anyone Clavinova.
I've convinced myself.

The link says, that every month, 45 million packs of medicine move from the UK to the EU and 37 million come the other way.
We must be doing something right if we send more packs of medicine to the EU than they send us.

jasjas1973
I think you were worried about British expats living in Spain - particularly with regards to healthcare - you must have heard the good news by now?

Spain to guarantee British residents' rights in event of no-deal Brexit

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-spain/spain-to-guarantee-british-residents-rights-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit-idUKKCN1QI4HW

“There are a series of measures regarding professional access to public roles, social security, healthcare, which are extremely generous so that there is no break from the current situation"

jasjas1973
I know

jasjas1973
I know - copy and paste error.

Clavinova
We must be doing something right if we send more packs of medicine to the EU than they send us.
Such an astonishingly weak grasp of statistics should be beneath you

We must be doing something right if we send more packs of medicine to the EU than they send us.
Such an astonishingly weak grasp of statistics should be beneath you

It was tongue in cheek... hence the grin. "We must be doing something right" is a well known phrase - and I do like clichés.

Theresa May reveals UK willing to pay to remain part of European agencies for medicine, chemicals and aviation

And be subject to rulings by the ECJ but as an associate have no say? Isn't that the big No-No for May/ERG? It is the way that May has worked in the past, opting out of things and then quietly opting back in when the ERG aren't looking. Which makes you wonder, why bother.

I have heard rumours that she plans to do the same with Euratom too, which initially having been part of a completely different treaty could probably have been left out of A50.

Which will all no doubt cost much more when it's all added up than simply paying for membership and being done with it. That doesn't seem to bother the Tories if the way Grayling, Johnson and May behave splashing around taxpayers money.

The only think I’m sure of at this point is that David Cameron is a fucking irresponsible idiot

The truth of the matter is this^ I can't see any way back from this divide in the UK. It's an embarrassing mess. I can only hold on to my optimism that the whole thing will be pulled and somehow we can recover from this last two years of decay. It can't be that we'll crash out, it's in no ones best interest. If we leave, never mind crash out, our (I'm 34) future as well as our children's and their children's future is screwed. The referendum happened a couple of weeks after ds2 was born and the result has tarnished all of that time. I will never forgive Cameron for putting the desicion in the hands of misinformed people and May for carrying on the circus. It's mind boggling that we're in this situation at this time in our economic state. Thoroughly depressing. The best ending is that we remain.

@jasjas1973

There is no answer, also I would never trust the government to look after a cannon ball, let alone the supply of food and medication for a country

But if we do leave the eu we're on our own, meaning this government who can't sort ANYTHING are going to be the ones sorting EVERYTHING! FFS we will certainly be left in the shit.