In all likelihood, what do you think will happen?

[Holidayshopping]

I have spent months hoping for a PV and then May revoking A50, and I still would like that to happen, but I’m starting to think now that she thinks there are too many people who just want Brexit no matter what!

I THINK that there will be an extension and then still no one will be able to agree on a plan. I can see a General Election being called soon as well-maybe with increased support for a centralist party?!

I also think the WA will go through eventually - probably after an extension. I’ve started eating my stockpile

This. Although I've not started eating my stockpile. I have stopped stockpiling, though.

{ remain team will have hard facts spelling out exactly what leaving the EU will result in.}

The 'Remain team' have been indicating strongly how bad things can get for nearly 3 years, all dismissed as 'project fear'. Until companies actually close and it is widely reported people will just ignore it as scare mongering.

We can only have an extension beyond the end of June if we participate in the European Parliament elections in May. This currently seems quite unlikely. However, if it happens, then my bet would be on serial extensions.

With a short extension the options are deal, no deal or revoke (you can't extend the extension unless EP elections have taken place) and I wouldn't want to put odds on those except to say that revoke seems very unlikely at this point.

Who the hell knows. Latest rumour this morning on various agencies is move afoot for agreement from Labour that they’ll abstain on the meaningful vote in return for assurance of second vote with TM deal or remain as the question. I still fear it will be no deal, hope to providence I’m embarrassingly wrong.

DH thinks that TM will revoke at the very last moment.

I don't. I think May's main consideration will be what she thinks is the best for the Tory party membership, and since they mostly seem to be elderly wealthy Brexiters they won't be too bothered about lost jobs. They might be a bit bothered about their medications but as BigChoc(?) said, the wealthy can get round this by travelling to the continent and getting them prescribed and made up there.

I am no longer worried about stockpiling, ive done a but though.

Last minute deal.

“Bluntness100

May's WA is completely unacceptable to nearly everyone in the UK”

That may be a fair assessment, it may not. I just wonder how many of that nearly everyone has actually read it

General understanding of the whole situation is lamentable (myself included, I try my best but I’m not a lawyer, civil servant, bureaucrat). Some old fella on lunchtime news was still repeating the “they need us as much as we need them” mantra. Now I could be misjudging him entirely, if so I apologise, sir. But his whole demeanour didn’t suggest to me that he was a professional economist or international trade deal negotiator. That’s the trouble, most people are basing their opinions and votes on gut feeling, on nostalgia, anger towards our own Government, on which paper they read or who they listen to, not real knowledge or understanding of an incredibly complex issue.
Gove has an awful lot to answer for with his completely irresponsible comment about experts. John down the pub thinks he knows as much if not more than a professional legislator. That’s no way to run a country. The first referendum was ill advised. I desperately want to remain but really don’t see how a second vote will provide much more clarity (unless 16-18s are included of course).

(That said, still think a vote is probably the only way to get things moving one way or another, focus minds)

There will be no Brexit, our parlimentarians are going to do everything they can to ignore the result, there will be no 2nd ref due to the obvious problem of what do you do with a double leave

Brexit on 29 March happens automatically UNLESS Mrs May actually DOES something.

WA will get voted down, May will ask for an extension. Spain and maybe another country will veto. UK will crash out.

Can I ask why you would think that Spain or another country would veto a request for an extension? I would have thought it would be in the EU member countries interest for the uk to leave with a WA rather than no deal.

May will get some cosmetic tweaks to her deal. Most of the hard Brexiteers will realise this is the best outcome they are going to get and will hold their noses and vote for it, as will some Labour MPs in northern Leave seats. The deal will scrape through.

From article linked below - "May was defeated the first time around by 432 votes to 202. To win, she needs 320 MPs on her side, two of whom aren’t included in the tallies, because they count the votes. So she’s 116 MPs short."

She could try and persuade the following to vote for her WA -
The Democratic Unionist Party: 10
Conservatives: 75
Labour: 30-40
Independents: 4

Could It Go Wrong?
"Yes. May needs a political miracle in which everything goes her way for the numbers above to work out for her."

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-01/how-theresa-may-might-just-pull-it-off-this-is-the-brexit-math

Risk of Spain vetoing any extension due to our fall out with them over Gibraltar and the EU wanting grounds for an extension- failure to get parliamentary approval isn’t what they are looking for.

I think it'll be very close.
Either TM's deal will just scrape through or we're going to crash out.
I don't think Revoke is an option.
I think EU may grant a very short extension but that will be it. Any longer and then we have the EU elections to deal with.

I'm not stockpiling anymore. What will be, will be.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-delay-article-50-theresa-may-european-parliament-meps-a8803546.html?amp

We are constantly told on these threads by Leavers that they are not stupid and they knew exactly what they were voting for. So let's assume that this was true of all Leavers. Why then can't May at the last minute Revoke, and explain to people that it really can't be done in the timescale required (that she set but we will gloss over that for now.) Then ask the leaders of Leave to go away and produce a costed document with realistic timescales of exactly which trade deals they expect to do with whom. I was thinking here of the Scottish Independence vote - a lengthy document was produced, which I gather that people could pick holes in, but it was substantially more than slogans and soundbites. Then when this document is produced and approved by Parliament ask whether a new Referendum is required. Remain too would need to put forward a proper case - Cameron's leaflet to us prior 2016 was very thin.

Impossible? Well the Swiss who have much greater experience of conducting Referendums than we do, managed to stall the close vote to stop FoM by looking at the issue and saying that it couldn't be done without damaging the country. So there is a precedent of a sort. Perhaps the Swiss are better informed as voters?

Peregrina. Do you think in a couple of years time you will look back on the sheer volume of time you have spent on these threads and think it was worth it and best spent?

I think a lot of people have disengaged from the discussion and want it over. Politicians (and prolific posters on here/Twitter/take your pick) say ‘Ha, yes, it should be over MY WAY’. A lengthy extension will be very unpopular.

I think a lot of people have disengaged from the discussion and want it over.

That's the one thing they can't have though.

• No deal means the U.K. will be coping with the fallout (political, practical or economic) for months if not years.

• May's deal means the U.K. will spend the next 2 years in negotiations, with a new cliff edge at the end of 2020 and then either another no deal versus further extensions debate.

• Revoke will lead to a lot of noisy discontent albeit among a minority

There is NO outcome that gets the U.K. "over" Brexit, so you will all have to suffer though more years of this unless you emigrate.

Peregrina
I agree with you.
There are several 'issues'. The Swiss have a different mentality compared to the average 'UK' person. It is a small country with 'blended' multinationality, meaning as you head towards the French, German or Italian borders they obviously speak those languages. there are also several strict laws that are quite restrictive which forces a bit of conformity.
It used to be the case that Swiss citizens had compulsory arms training and keep a licenced gun of some sort at home for 'civil defense'. No one carries them in normal day to day life.
While there is strong logic which suggests that Brexit is a totally crazy idea, we go back to 'feelz' and with the hardening of positions it would be impossible to have a properly discussed reevaluation. So many just want 'out' now despite not realising how bad things are likely to get.
This 'voting on your mobile' has lost credibility as it is too easy to do. With a vote where you have to physically go to a polling station, it forces you to engage your brain and the effort required to go out, makes you invested in your choice.

‘Over’ - decision on this stage. I think we can expect a decision on this stage.

PersonaNonGarta? I happen to think that the future of the country is important and with the Westministenders threads in particular have learnt a lot of useful information. If Brexit damages the country I want to be able to look my grandchildren in the face and say I did what I could to stop it, not whine now that I am bored and then whine in 2/5/10 years time about price increases or job losses.

A lot of people spend time on MN threads, facebook, twitter, with things which I consider utterly trivial like reading about what the latest D list celebrity is doing. Would you like to go on those threads and tell them off too? I am retired and if I chose to spend waste my time on MN it doesn't affect anyone much except me.

{ I think we do need another referendum rather than just accept the shoddy WA which pleases nobody.}
The WA is not shoddy in as much as there are only 3 items actually nailed down, Citizens rights, the backstop and the 'tab' that the UK must pay for ongoing membership commitments. The rest needs negotiation and the outcome can be whatever is negotiated. The fact the UK still hasn't a clue as to what it can have in the real world is not the fault of the EU.
From a European perspective the UK government and the attitudes of the 'leavers' are being a bunch of complete shits, deliberately being as unpleasant and disruptive as possible.
The common representation of Brexit is showing that the UK is on a cliff edge. It is not. It has already gone over the cliff and is on a ledge on the way down. It can never get back up the first part of the cliff, that is a life now gone. The choice is to find a horizontal or preferably upward trending path, or to fall off the ledge into the abyss.
Meanwhile the ledge the UK is on is gradually crumbling away.