In all likelihood, what do you think will happen?

[Holidayshopping]

I have spent months hoping for a PV and then May revoking A50, and I still would like that to happen, but I’m starting to think now that she thinks there are too many people who just want Brexit no matter what!

I THINK that there will be an extension and then still no one will be able to agree on a plan. I can see a General Election being called soon as well-maybe with increased support for a centralist party?!

Lots of reasons to be optimistic about UK biotech and pharma:

29 Jan 2019 UK biotech booms in 2018, despite Brexit worries

www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/uk_biotech_booms_in_2018,_despite_brexit_worries_1276634

UK biotech attracted a record-breaking £2.2bn in investment last year, with UK firm’s claiming 40% of the venture capital funding that went to the sector across Europe, according to a BioIndustry Association (BIA) report.

The £2.2bn tally is around £1bn more than the amount raised in 2017 and included £1.1bn in venture funding with deals tending to be larger than in previous years, according to BIA chief executive Steve Bates, who said the data “shows global investors see this value and want to be part of the UK’s exciting and fast-growing biotech opportunity”.

Oct 2018 Scotland’s pharmaceutical industry ‘booming’, with manufacturing exports worth £462 million.

www.abpi.org.uk/media-centre/news/2018/october/scotland-s-pharmaceutical-industry-booming-with-manufacturing-exports-worth-462-million/

www.bioindustry.org/resource-listing/confident-capital-backing-uk-biotech.html

{Lots of reasons to be optimistic about UK biotech and pharma:
29 Jan 2019 UK biotech booms in 2018, despite Brexit worries}

Therein lies a problem with much of the reporting, it doesn't cover the whole issue.
Yes the UK may be attracting interest because there are brilliant biomedical research groups in the UK. As I understand it, a huge amount is invested in 'creating' a treatment that works, and many fail. The problem might lie further down the line where say 20 possible drugs have been invented and trialled in the UK and a couple are found to be suitably effective and safe, but there will then be a significant cost to getting it licenced for worldwide use, having to be checked again for EU certification, and again for USA and other trade blocks. Tariffs will hit the UK 'designers' and revenue from full scale production may not come back to the UK.
It is not saying things are impossible, but that what was a smooth operation now has a number of hurdles to jump over, all detracting from the profitability.
It is the slicing off a few percent here and there by the introduction of tariffs and extra certification that will hit the UK.

Clavinova... when are you going to link to positives due to brexit?

Every single thing you link to is already happening whilst IN the EU.

The dangers of Brexit......
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/382/382.pdf

I can't pretend to have any special expertise in the impact of Brexit on the biomedical industry, but my translator husband has been doing a roaring trade in what he calls "Brexit letters" (formal notifications to ethics committees of a change in the legal representative for clinical trials in the European Union).

jasjas1973

You fail to notice that we have already voted to leave the EU.

If Theresa May's deal can be tweaked - that's fine by me.

From the introduction in your link:

^The Government must continue to seek to preserve and build upon the success of the UK pharmaceutical sector, and the effective collaboration between industry and Government as it undertakes
negotiations on^ future trading arrangements with the EU.

Joining the EMA as an associate member for example would certainly be worth investigating - although I see that EU red-tape and the EMA have been criticised recently by the Institute of Cancer Research (Dec 2018):

Red tape preventing cancer patients from accessing new drugs

Some cancers have had no new drugs licensed since 2000, according to Institute of Cancer Research report.

www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/04/red-tape-preventing-cancer-patients-from-accessing-new-drugs

EU regulations say that if a disease does not occur in children, drug companies can opt out of testing the drug on them, even though it might help with other cancers. That... needed to change.

The team also found new drugs are taking longer to make it through the clinical trial stage of development. Between 2009 and 2016, it took more than nine years for a drug to progress from the first stage of clinical trials to being authorised for a particular use by the EMA, compared with 7.8 years between 2000 and 2008.

“I don’t think this is about being over-cautious because of safety; I think this is regulatory red tape,”

Should we all start having a tantrum because the Welfare state that was voted in in the 1945 landslide is being dismantled? After all that is what the population overwhelmingly voted for. Why isn't that vote cast in stone?

I can recall drugs being put on sale, and then withdrawn because they were found to be unsafe, so what is an extra years delay?

Doesn’t anyone find it slightly absurd we are debating possible associate membership of the EMA? Until this uninformed absurd referendum it was all based in and controlled from London. In a short time we are now aspiring to associate membership of it?

I noticed on the EMA job ads at the moment contracts are still being issued here but say “ The tasks will be carried out at the site of the new premises in Amsterdam Zuid...“

The move to Amsterdam in preparation for Brexshit has taken 900 jobs, a budget of €322m, and 40,000 business visits every year.

Of course a huge knock on effect on local hotels, restaurants, taxis and so on. A huge loss of finances, talent, infrastructure and influence.

And now we are debating paying to rejoin it and being subject to its regulations - why wasn't this on the side of a bus.

Not that we will be allowed to rejoin it of course - as was said upthread why would be allowed when Switzerland or say Nigeria isn't. That's what being outside the bloc means.

Clavinova

That does mean it was a wise decision, it is the Govt's job to do the best for the country, not to pander to xenophobes and people locked into the 1940s.

Leaving the EU, then attempt (no guarantee we will be allowed) to rejoin many of the agencies we need to part of, paying in, with no say.... what part of that makes sense or is in anyway good Governance?

These "tweaks" @Clavinova . Do they involve getting rid of the backstop? How do you make Brexit compliant with GFA? Let's be honest, if it wasn't for GFA and our clear international obligations there, we would have left by now. GFA works if we are both in the E.U. or there is a GFA compliant technological solution to the border. Which there isn't yet.

Thalidamide anyone? A drug introduced to reduce the effects of morning sickness IIRC.

The move to Amsterdam in preparation for Brexshit has taken 900 jobs, a budget of €322m, and 40,000 business visits every year.*

It's more jobs than that. Every single "Brexit letter" that my husband has translated involves a change in the representative for a clinical trial, from the UK to the EU. Those aren't EMA jobs but they are jobs previously done in the UK that will now be done elsewhere.

Thinking exactly the same as everyone else this morning - we used to host the EMA and take a full part in decision making. We now have Clavinova and others trying to sell the idea that we might in the fullness of time have access via associate membership as a bonus of Brexit. I'm impressed - not.

In addition to Mistigri's additional people going - as I have said before - my dentist went because his wife works at the EMA, so he moved with her. Thanks Brexiters for losing me a good dentist, a few years earlier than he was expecting to retire.

And of course we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg being reported in the press. 3,500 jobs at a car plant represents 10 or more times than, in the supply and transport sectors, and trickling down from that the 'stuff' that those 35,000 plus workers will not be buying from others.

That article about clinical trials is bullshit.

I mean, this bit EU regulations say that if a disease does not occur in children, drug companies can opt out of testing the drug on them

How do you propose testing drugs on kids to treat a disease they don’t have? It’s not a loophole, it’s common sense.

And not one mention of the FDA in the article, as if clinical trials are run purely for EMA approval.

Thalidomide is the reason for stringent clinical trials and a total revamping of regulatory processes. It has actually since been through trials and approved for treatment of other things.

There will be a lot of jobs lost because people are cutting back, not booking holidays and cancelling bigger purchases.

And now we are debating paying to rejoin it and being subject to its regulations - why wasn't this on the side of a bus.

The European Medicines Agency has already left town - moot point springs to mind.

The move to Amsterdam in preparation for Brexshit has taken 900 jobs

The EMA's annual report stated 60 UK employees.

Not that we will be allowed to rejoin it of course-as was said upthread why would be allowed when Switzerland or say Nigeria isn't.

Switzerland clearly do have a relationship with the EMA:

www.ema.europa.eu/en/partners-networks/international-activities/bilateral-interactions-non-eu-regulators/switzerland

Thalidamide anyone?
That article about clinical trials is bullshit.

Clearly you both know more than the Institute of Cancer;

Children’s cancers have received little in the way of new treatments, a finding the authors put down to drug companies failing to invest in these rare conditions and using regulatory loopholes to avoid conducting the necessary clinical trials.

The report finds that recent years have seen a boom in new drugs for blood cancers and lung cancer, but some other cancers have had no new drugs licensed since 2000.

Among them are womb cancer, which is the fourth most common cancer in women in the UK, testicular cancer and brain cancer, the latter of which is diagnosed in about 11,500 people a year in the UK and was the cause of MP Tessa Jowell’s death in May.

Crucially... low-tech drugs were more likely to be assessed than innovative ones.“The drug appraisal system is not encouraging or rewarding really ambitious innovation–drugs with novel mechanisms of action.We really need these to address the problem of the ability of cancers to evolve and become drug resistant,”

That does mean it was a wise decision, it is the Govt's job to do the best for the country, not to pander to xenophobes and people locked into the 1940s.

Surely, annoyance with EU red-tape was a main driving force behind the Conservative Brexit Campaign - not xenophobia as you seem to think. Odd that you didn't know that.

people are cutting back, not booking holidays

On the contrary - holiday bookings appear to be up.

www.thesun.co.uk/travel/8544378/travel-firms-discounts-easter-holidays-brexit/

So: having chosen to kick the EMA out as part of our glorious journey to the Sunlit Uplands, and therefore now having to consider associated membership, is a Brexit benefit?

Oh dear, copy and paste clav rides again with her lack crtical thinking or even checking dates on things she links to clearly evident.

You posted up thread about about May saying we could pay to remain in the EMA, dated March 2nd 2018. I don't believe this has been agreed, you also copy and pasted an article regarding the Government expanding RoRo transport from Dover to other ports too, I assume you are up to date with how well that has gone.

Surely, annoyance with EU red-tape was a main driving force behind the Conservative Brexit Campaign - not xenophobia as you seem to think. Odd that you didn't know that

mmmmmmm the Conservative Govt campaigned to stay IN the EU..... as for red tape, leaving the EU is not going to reduce that, HMRC estimate £13billion in customs declaration costs alone.

Surely even you do not think that xenophobia and racism played no part in the brexit vote, just 620k votes would have swung leave to remain.

What your posts do show is that TM is dead right, Brexit is damage limitation.

Littlespaces

Huge rise in holiday bookings in Cornwall;
www.cornwallchamber.co.uk/news/details/huge-rise-in-holiday-bookings-01-31-2019

The UK holiday cottage we rent (not Cornwall) costs far more than a cheap Spanish hotel with flights.