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Brexit

In all likelihood, what do you think will happen?

228 replies

Holidayshopping · 27/02/2019 18:03

I have spent months hoping for a PV and then May revoking A50, and I still would like that to happen, but I’m starting to think now that she thinks there are too many people who just want Brexit no matter what!

I THINK that there will be an extension and then still no one will be able to agree on a plan. I can see a General Election being called soon as well-maybe with increased support for a centralist party?!

OP posts:
Mistigri · 02/03/2019 09:23

‘Over’ - decision on this stage. I think we can expect a decision on this stage.

Yes, but this is the smallest, easiest stage of the process. The heavy lifting is yet to come. I think when people say that they just want it all to be over they do not realise this. The only way for Brexit to be "over" is to cancel it.

starpatch · 02/03/2019 09:42

I'm feeling really stressed about this now though anyone else? It's like I have been trying to ignore it on some level (although I am following the news). Now it's March it feels more real.

Peregrina · 02/03/2019 09:50

I feel stressed about it, wondering how family members are going to get vital medication. Somehow the rest of the family will manage with rising prices, shortages and a general lack of opportunity.

It infuriated me when the Leavers tried to dismiss Honda pulling out as nothing to do with Brexit. I am sure there is over capacity in the car industry, by why be the ones to volunteer to destroy our own industry with nothing to put in its place? I remember the damage caused by earlier recessions, seeing a friend's marriage break up. It may have broken up eventually, but redundancy didn't help. Others were almost literally sick with worry. Who on earth is still making excuses for all this?

Cattenberg · 02/03/2019 09:57

Whatever deal we make with the EU won’t be as good as the one we currently have. Brexiters need to face up to this and stop wasting time chasing rainbows.

I think we’ll get an extension or a last minute fudge, but Parliament are so incompetent and divided that I can’t be sure.

1tisILeClerc · 02/03/2019 10:16

Sadly I think an extension simply makes things a lot worse.
Yes there are some technical details that need to happen in a certain time and order but for minimal damage (not that the UK isn't buggered already) is to leave on 29 March and make a start to clearing up the mess.
Industry can get on with doing what it needs to do with a certain degree of assurance which is vital if they are not to crumble irreparably. Putting a decision off for another 2 months or more without having a decision simply hammers more nails into the coffin.
There will be massive turmoil in the UK (whatever happens) and calls for a GE, new leader who knows, but in a way Industry is separate from this and simply NEEDS to know what is happening.
It is like a cut on your hand. If the wound is cleaned promptly and left alone to heal it will. The indecision by the government is simply pouring dirt into the wound and twisting it around so it can never heal.

FriendOrFaux · 02/03/2019 11:01

LeClerc
Wise words. I agree that the sooner we have some sort of certainty the better it will be.

Littlespaces · 02/03/2019 11:53

I listened to a sheep farmer, who sells a large amount of lamb to Europe, on the radio today and he used the following analogy.

It is like playing a game of cards where you know the hand you are holding but have no idea what on earth the dealer will do and no clue what cards the other person has in his hand.

twofingerstoEverything · 02/03/2019 12:25

I'm not sure that's a good analogy. We haven't even decided what our hand is. Are we playing aces high or low? Isn't the issue that there's no consensus here in the UK?

Cattenberg · 02/03/2019 12:59

I’m not at all convinced that jumping off the cliff is preferable to living with uncertainty. Yes, we’ll know what injuries we’re dealing with, but they’re likely to be serious injuries that we might not fully recover from.

1tisILeClerc · 02/03/2019 13:43

The WA is not jumping off a cliff. It was published in November and anyone can read it. It is possible that May or even Corbyn has talked about it with Mr Barnier and the team in the EU and she/he might have been given encouraging words that the WA could be moulded to fit nearer what the UK would like, although the 4 pillars of the EU would not be up for negotiation.
This might be wishful thinking but Mrs May must have said more than a few pleasantries when meeting in Brussels and in return although it would not be spoken outside the 'office' there must be something that is spurring Mrs May on unless the really has had a 'breakdown' and is planning on destroying the UK.

Clavinova · 02/03/2019 14:17

Peregrina
I feel stressed about it, wondering how family members are going to get vital medication.

Update from JDRF and Diabetes UK:

After our joint media coverage calling on the Government for more detail on access to insulin in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the type 1 diabetes charity JDRF and the charity, Diabetes UK can provide this update :

Following a series of letters and public statements we had a meeting with senior officials with expertise in logistics and supplies of medicines and consumables at the Department of Health and Social Care and NHS England.

This was a very encouraging discussion, and alongside the ministerial statement published yesterday, the FAQs on medicine supplies on the NHS England website and the recent reassurances from the insulin manufacturers, we feel more reassured about plans.

jdrf.org.uk/news/update-on-medicine-supplies-and-no-deal-brexit/

Cattenberg · 02/03/2019 14:21

Sorry, I meant that No Deal would be jumping off a cliff. I agree that the WA would be less dramatic, although it would be worse than what we currently have.

I read that the EU has a history of doing deals at one minute to midnight, although I don’t know of any examples. However, TM has a reputation for doing the precise opposite of what she said she would do. So, it’s difficult to call.

xebobfromUS · 02/03/2019 15:10

Most businesses are naturally reluctant to spend money, time, and effort on something which may or may not happen ( no-deal).

Particularly businesses both large and small with small profit margins.

If they knew for certain that no-deal will occur then they could begin to make the necessary sacrifices to attempt to adjust in the time alloted.

The EU might be willing then to give some type of extension to minimize disruption to both the UK and the EU.

I think the UK governmental agencies are unprepared for the same reason, uncertainty makes it very difficult to justify expenditures for something which may or may not happen.

xebobfromUS · 02/03/2019 15:42

If you are feeling overly stressed it might be best to throttle back a bit, especially if you have prepared about as best as you can.

I know here in Florida when the hurricanes have come through if you listened too much to the National Weather Service about their predictions for tornadoes, damaged roofs from high winds, etc then you could wear yourself out with worry before the real event occurs.

We certainly got tornadoes but they tended to be either small or medium sized but very short-lived and usually out in semi-isolated areas.

People have died but usually because they stayed in their trailer or mobile home when they should have gone to a designated shelter and a tree came crashing down through their roof and killed them.

Also people who try driving out in the middle of the storm get killed by a falling tree or after the storm when people want to look around and step on a downed live power line.

If you follow the instructions given by the authorities then generally you will be safe or as safe as can be expected.

Your mental state certainly affects your physical state, you don't want to be all grinded down both mentally and physically before you then may have to endure a harsh event.

1tisILeClerc · 02/03/2019 16:41

Cattenberg
{I read that the EU has a history of doing deals at one minute to midnight, although I don’t know of any examples.}

This is apparently the case BUT that is dealing with members of the EU.
The UK will not be a member, so it gets 'third country' treatment' like it would with China, the USA or Russia. The gloves will come off. The only respite is that the EU wants to retain good relations with the UK as it has very strong historical ties but with the last 3 years of nonsense that might be wearing rather thin.

1tisILeClerc · 02/03/2019 16:47

xebobfromUS
There is a bit of difference with Brexit. With a hurricane it is all people against the hurricane, working on the same side. With Brexit we have very senior members of the cabinet either outright lying, or being 'economical with the truth'.
So many 'government statements have been put out that are initially true, but if you finish the whole sentence it becomes very suspect. For example Patrick Minfords theories about great wealth in the future for some which sounds great, but the conditions for this are that much of UK manufacturing gets trashed because the tariffs that exist now are removed and UK producers cannot make a profit.

TalkinPeece · 02/03/2019 16:49

Xebob
Brexit is a hurricane which will sit on us your years and years
not just a few days
and we have politicians doing rain dances to make it stronger

GreyGardens88 · 02/03/2019 16:53

Ideally, the WA is voted down, there's an extension, then another referendum where everyone sees sense and vote remain

Realistically, TM's deal eventually gets through possibly after an extension, then begins years of economic decline

TalkinPeece · 02/03/2019 17:03

then another referendum where everyone sees sense and vote remain
NOT A HOPE
Round here attitudes against the EU have hardened and deepened
because people do not understand the issues

NoWordForFluffy · 02/03/2019 17:06

Is it wilful ignorance? How can so many people be so unaware?

Easilyflattered · 02/03/2019 17:16

You know when you're about to move house, and the build up to exchange of contracts stresses you out, will someone back out, will you be gazumped, are you definitely going to move, should you resign/accept jobs,etc. Waiting, feeling ultimately it's out of your control, wanting some certainty.

I must have driven my husband crazy in those weeks and I think I'm driving home crazy now. I cannot believe what will happen is still anyone's guess.

Easilyflattered · 02/03/2019 17:16

*him

Peregrina · 02/03/2019 17:19

I am not at all reassured that insulin supplies may be OK, because the relatives I am worried about have other severe medical conditions.

1tisILeClerc · 02/03/2019 17:35

While remaining was the 'right' thing to do at the outset, there is no way the likes of the ERG will get back in their box so they would continue to cause unrest between the UK and EU. The world is changing and is getting a bit less stable and the ERG / Farage and others having greater presence in the European Parliament would be a distraction from the work that needs doing.

xebobfromUS · 02/03/2019 17:39

LeClerc

This is what is so dreadful about this whole business, it's a real disaster that is totally man-made and not some natural event that cannot be avoided.

I watched recently the miniseries " North and South " about the US Civil War and am finishing up the miniseries " War and Remembrance " about WW2.

While the front lines were of course horrific, away from them I couldn't help but be struck by the general non-lack of food, water, medicine, etc that the populace at large wasn't made to suffer.

There were problems of course after the war particularly portions of the South after it's defeat and also Germany as a whole after its defeat.

As a commenter said about Iraq after the US invasion which was successful but then the occupation was allowed to become botched with resulting chaos and bombings all over the place, there are events or situations which can be much worse than a civil war which despite the carnage can still be relatively civilized and decent for most people.

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