In all likelihood, what do you think will happen?

[Holidayshopping]

I have spent months hoping for a PV and then May revoking A50, and I still would like that to happen, but I’m starting to think now that she thinks there are too many people who just want Brexit no matter what!

I THINK that there will be an extension and then still no one will be able to agree on a plan. I can see a General Election being called soon as well-maybe with increased support for a centralist party?!

As you must know Clavinova (as you criticise others for only reading headlines) the figures upthread are based on government own analysis from 2018. Looking at the three main possible post-Brexit trade scenarios and comparing how the scenarios will affect the economy.

The figures use the OBR's economic forecasts up to 2023 to create a baseline for economic growth. The three different Brexit scenarios are modelled against this. But yes it’s all predicted job losses- so why not comment on job losses that have already happened - for example the attached.

Or do you support what Iain Duncan Smith said a month ago that not a single job would be lost in a hard Brexit.

Job-losses

Links:

•no-deal

•DexEU- briefing

•white-paper

Sky News Breaking@SkyNewsBreak

BMW has told Sky News it will "have to consider" ending Mini production at its Cowley site in Oxfordshire in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit
and that the company would "not be very happy" with a two to three month Brexit delay

No no no Big Choc, its nothing to do with Brexit, its the car industry anyway. Project fear.

so why not comment on job losses that have already happened

Oh she/he already has - apparently they're not worth discussing once they've happened, like the EMA. Combine that with 'nobody knows what's going to happen' and 'experts are wrong all the time' and you've got the perfect leavers' head-in-the-sand and out-of-touch-with-reality response to all bad news.

We in Oxford and neighbouring towns can feel angry about that because We Voted Remain. We were not conned like the people in Sunderland.

I am not at all surprised - a friend whose husband works at the Mini plant was talking a couple of months back about whether they would have to relocate to Germany. I imagine that the Company would be happy to take some key employees with them.

Oh she/he already has - apparently they're not worth discussing once they've happened, like the EMA.

Only 60 British passport holders, so the other 840 who have contributed to this country and paid taxes here, didn't matter.

Theresa (Remainer) May will get an extension to Article 50. When that extension approaches the end there be a further extension and so on.

All to stall the Democratic to Leave.

There will not be multiple extensions.

I imagine that the Company would be happy to take some key employees with them. - but will the employees have the right to work/live in Germany post-Brexit? Do they have EU passports?

- but will the employees have the right to work/live in Germany post-Brexit? Do they have EU passports?

I was thinking of a category of experienced employees and I think they would ease visa applications for them. Financially it would probably be worth the firm's while, rather than training up or recruiting new people from scratch. Would spouses and families be able to accompany them? I don't know the answer to that. It wouldn't be the whole of the 6,000 workforce either - just a few hundred I would imagine.

If the deal presented by May on 12 March is same as before I can’t see the previous 230 vote defeat being overturned. MPs then have to decide if UK is to leave without a deal. Some will vote for no deal, but I don’t think it will be a majority. An extension to A50 looks likely, but with no further progress.

Would a 2nd referendum help? Don’t think so as if first referendum can be ignored what prevents government ignoring a 2nd referendum?

Basically a shambles. It is estimated that Brexit has cost the UK between £500-£700 Million per day (again conflicting numbers banded around). That is more than UK pays into UK. So a large chunk of any future savings to be had by leaving the EU have already gone?

If UK decides to remain what would prevent EU sending UK a bill for their costs?

The question is now - how do we get out of the mess we are in?
May had an opportunity when she took over as PM, but ignored the nearly half of the voting electorate to jump into be with the ERG types. She then had another opportunity to have a rethink when she fluffed her election, and again appeasing the ERG was more important to her.

Sooner or later someone has to try to bring the country together, and properly, not haranguing them to 'get behind brexit', but start asking - what can most of us agree with? I would suggest that a good 80% value the NHS so we start there. This won't please the extreme right Tories, (who have just gone and partly privatised Oxford's cancer services), but tough, they have had free reign since the Referendum and haven't come up with one sensible idea between them.

The Uk government and HoC need to come to terms with the fact that the WA, as it stands is the ONLY departure document and that the EU does not want or need to change it. Blackmail will not work.
That leaves the other 2 options of revoke or crash out.
It is a simple 3 way choice until 29 March at which point leaving with no deal is the default position. Very simple. Just chose.

Would a 2nd referendum help? Don’t think so as if first referendum can be ignored what prevents government ignoring a 2nd referendum?

Well, the questions would very different, Mays WA verses Remain, extremely clear instruction to Parliament.

Parliament isn't "ignoring" the original vote, it just doesn't know how to implement a verdict which has a 17.4million answers.

OK then 1tis - the govt makes the wrong choice and we crash out. Then what? A 'phoney war' type period and then anarchy as people realise that we don't know which laws are in force, or which trade deals are valid/

Revoke is dangerous;

Rioting (remember the poll tax riots in 1990)

Democracy by definition does not exist if majority vote is ignored

EU can squeeze more form UK when UK had told EU they are afraid to leave

They could have ignored the 'first' i.e. second Referendum, because it was advisory. However much Cameron said that he would implement the result, I imagine that if he had stayed on but refused to do so and someone had tried to take him to court over it, they wouldn't have been successful. I imagine it would have been seen like a Manifesto commitment of 'this is what we'd like to do'.

I have worked for several major German companies which are household names globally. I keep in contact with my former employers as never know when they might have a job for me.

Those Germans I keep in contact with say very much the same about Mays deal. It is a passive REMAIN and the £39 Billion is a gift. Financially it would be better to revoke and not pay the £39 Billion, but as the a Germans have pointed out payment of the £39 Billion or any other figure crested the impression to some that UK has actually left EU even though it has not

The referendum was advisory up until Article 50 was triggered. After that it is binding unless revoked which so far it has not even though there are only 20 days left to 29 March 2019

Well, the questions would very different, Mays WA verses Remain, extremely clear instruction to Parliament

Mays proposed deal is Remain. So a second referendum that has the two options

Mays Deal

Or

Remain

Provides no opportunity for those within the UK who want to leave the EU. A more fair ballot paper would be;

May deal

Or

Leave with No Deal

At least that provides an opportunity for the 17.4 Million who voted leave to repeat their opinion

{OK then 1tis - the govt makes the wrong choice and we crash out. Then what?}
I voted remain originally as that was infinitely the best ORIGINAL answer. However since the extent of the external influence, lies and the fact that the ERG and Farage have stirred up a hornets nest the UK should leave. The political agenda of the UK does not fit well with the EU.
Any form of leave is going to be massively damaging to the UK but that damage has already started. The UK has already chopped it's hand off and has only a rag stemming the blood. It can be cleaned up but the hand will never return. The WA will be an opportunity to have a prosthetic fitted, never as good as the original hand, but workable, whereas leaving with no deal is when gangrene sets in and you lose the arm and far more.
Whatever happens the UK government has to step up and actually govern and no other country can step in and do it for the UK, although you could argue that getting into bed with the USA the UK will become a puppet of the USA and USA big business. They will dictate UK policy through the back door.
I am happy with the general direction of the EU as their laws are formed by negotiation with 27/28 countries with differing viewpoints and priorities, so extremism is watered down and as a member the UK had it's say as well. Dictated by USA/big business will be problematic.
Crashing out loses all legal equivalence with the EU and there will be a frantic cut and paste of things unless the UK actually confirms for INTERNAL consumption that the UK retains existing laws until they are actively changed in future. Trade and the legal requirements around that will be a complete dogs dinner and exports from the UK will still have to meet the certifications and standards of the 'buyers'.
Crashing out has many dangers, not least the police demanding more money to tackle knife crime, demonstrating that they are close to losing control unless draconian measures are taken, shoot to maim or something? Adjustments to the law for marshal control have already been made. At what threshold would marshal law be declared?
This may sound unthinkable, but it is gradually happening, and it happens in other parts of the world now, so suggesting it can't happen in the UK is fanciful.
The UK is being played by Russia and the likes of Steve Bannon and some in the UK government are bit part players and others have been too spineless to prevent what is happening. Only the UK can fix it.

The 'end point' of the WA is to leave, not remain. It is NOT a deal as such but a transition period during which many things stay the same, but it allows the proper negotiations to start. The possibilities to stay in the CU/SM are still open, or at least I believe the trajectory is to end them at present, but through negotiation they could be retained as they are, or a new version thrashed out.

Simple logic tells you that the WA has a LEAVE endpoint, as it is the commencement of the transition period. If it was a remain 'plan' then it would not need a transition as the UK hasn't changed anything yet.
Like Revoke, NOTHING would change on the morning of 30th March apart from a huge pile of dogshit on the lawn that will need clearing up.

Mays deal, after the agreed transition period, means LEAVE the EU, probably with a FTA - similar to the 70 ones we will also be leaving, they'll be no ECJ, no FOM, no SM, likely no CU, out of CAP and CFP and we'll negotiate the ones we wish to remain in, such as Eurasmus.... oh no MEPs either.

We become a 3rd country....what part of Remain is any of the above????

Of course, its always possible that during the transition period a future Govt will negotiate an EFTA style deal BUT that is still outside of the EU..... Norway is not a member of the EU.