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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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Peregrina · 24/02/2019 17:57

I thought the Tiggers and Lib Dems were both on 11, with the latest Labour defector being Independent but not allied with the Tiggers? The same in fact as the Lib Dem defector who won't ally I assume because he defected because he was in a Leave constituency.

BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 17:58

The thing is that May has said repeatedly that she won't ask for an extension and that one way or another we are leaving in the 29th May. So unless MPs do get there arses in gear and find a way to force her to request an extension I'm not expecting her to suddenly change her mind on this.

BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 17:59

May? I meant March obviously. Blush

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:00

21 months is certainly a threat to the ERG:

It would take us to the end of 2020, which is about 54 months / 4.5 years after the 2016 ref

The political mandate for Brexit would basically have run out by then
(since that is typically the time between GEs, when govts have proper majorities)
and the demographics would have changed

and that is just until Brexit

  • there would have to be about another 5 years in transition to negotiate the future trade deal

So at some stage, there would have to be a PV with Remain (or possibly Rejoin) as an option

BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 18:02

I agree BigChoc I think a PV would be inevitable if we extended that long and so I would expect the ERG to fight it at all costs. I can't see how we would end up with something that long with May or any of the other Tory leadership front runners in charge.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:03

The thing is that May has said repeatedly that she won't ask for an extension and that one way or another we are leaving in the 29th March.

May has also said its her deal or a lengthy extension. It seems this comment has been forgotten or overlooked.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:03

sand Legally, the EU could say they would only extend under certain conditions.

Politically, I don't think the EU would ever demand 21 months instead of 3 - it would look too much like trying to force the UK to stay.

They might well reduce a request of 6-9months to 3 months, if it is just for more UK dithering, rather than a PV

BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 18:04

Unless parliament effectively removed any decision-making ability from the government when it comes to brexit and forced them to request an extension. I'm not even sure this is technically possible though.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:05

The idea that May and this government can survive until 2021 is also one I find difficult to believe at this moment in time.

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BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 18:07

May has also said its her deal or a lengthy extension. It seems this comment has been forgotten or overlooked

I've probably missed it but I don't recall her saying that recently whereas I've heard her say a couple of times that we are absolutely leaving on the 29th. If what your saying is the case and she has said she is open to extending than we have some serious mixed messages going out. Though considering her past I'm not sure why that would surprise me in the least.

EweSurname · 24/02/2019 18:08

If we stayed until 2021, would that mean that the tax directives that the EU are bringing in would be adopted by the U.K.?

L1minal · 24/02/2019 18:09

Thanks for your explanation, Red

1tisILeClerc · 24/02/2019 18:09

Such a long delay would be immensely damaging to the UK manufacturing in that the bigger, international players are either leaving or have plans to, as there is nothing much the UK gov can do to convince them that hanging around another year or two before 'deciding' is in their interests. It is almost a 'WA lite' but the details of whether the UK can start to develop new deals would need to be stated.
It looks a bit like 'give them some more rope' which is bad for Industry, but helpful for 'citizens'.
Of course the major stumbling block is that UK gov of all flavours is 'out to lunch' and will be for some time yet. The boil is nowhere near being lanced yet.

TokyoSushi · 24/02/2019 18:10

Genuine question klaxon 🚨

Loads of outrage on Twitter from Keir Starmer etc that May is in contempt, is running down the clock, cannot be allowed to leave it to the last minute to force a choice between her deal or no deal. Followed by 'Parliament must act to stop this now' Question: What exactly can parliament do to stop her?

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:11

Correction. It wasn't May herself who said it.

It was Olly Robbins 'overheard' in a bar in Paris.

Mr Robbins was also reported as saying that Mrs May would give MPs a last-minute choice to either back her deal or see a lengthy extension to Article 50 and Britain’s departure from the EU.

Mr Walker cites Mr Robbins saying: “ . . . Got to make them believe that the week beginning end of March . . . Extension is possible but if they don’t vote for the deal then the extension is a long one …”

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/df280d58-2f8c-11e9-8744-e7016697f225
As cited in the FT.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:13

I've probably missed it but I don't recall her saying that recently whereas I've heard her say a couple of times that we are absolutely leaving on the 29th.

Ive heard comments making the point that in recent weeks she has been less specific about the date of leaving when asked at PMQ, but I missed last week and whether she has reiterated the date.

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TokyoSushi · 24/02/2019 18:13

Ah you may all have answered me a bit further up the thread but any further thoughts welcome

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:13

peregrina The HoC lists the total number of independents as 20;

that includes several MPs of very differing views - including Hoey and Field ! - in addition to the Tiggers.
The Speaker may well class Independents together, when deciding to take an amendment

btw, That is an amazing number, isn't it - by far the largest number in modern political history
The party system has broken down in this Parliament, at least

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:17

Kate Hoey is still a Labour MP BCF.

Unless she's quit the party this afternoon whilst I wasn't paying attention

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:18

Apparently in 1968 there were briefly 24 independent MPs...

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:20

tokyo Under the UK Constitution, the HoC can block legislation, or vote to bring down a government
However, until now the legislature has never tried to force the executive - i.e. the PM - to take a specific action.

With only 32 days left from tomorrow until Brexit, it is almost impossible that a majority of MPs could actually agree on a specific action they want to force the PM to take
AND
actually find a way of legally making her do so in time.

However, politically, if they passed a binding amendment, especially with more than a wafer-thin majority,
for e.g. PV or an extension,
imo it is quite possible that May would seize on this as a way out of the political hole she has dug for herself

GoldenSyrupLion · 24/02/2019 18:21

Cometh the hour, cometh the man/woman. I dream there is someone on their way. They'd better get a move on.

ElenadeClermont · 24/02/2019 18:22

Kate Hoey is still a Labour MP BCF.
Easy to forget, as she always hangs out with her DUP chums.

prettybird · 24/02/2019 18:23

May: "we still have it within our grasp to leave the EU by the 29th of March"

Interesting use of "within our grasp"

Hmm

Not quite so confident..... Hmm

Missbel · 24/02/2019 18:24

I'm not sure that Parliament can directly stop her: The Public Administration and Constitutional affairs Committee recently reported that: Resolutions of the House are an expression of the will of the nation’s elected representatives, and so should be treated seriously, but how Government responds is a matter of politics, not law. The evidence from the Clerk of the House was unambiguous. Parliament can only change the law by the law. The Commons cannot bind the Executive or compel a minister to act through a resolution unless it is specified in law. It is for ministers to decide how to respond to a resolution of the House. So the only way to stop her in her tracks, so to speak, would be politically - for the Government themselves would decide to change the law. Where are the men in grey suits when we need them?