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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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Flowerplower · 24/02/2019 16:37

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Inniu · 24/02/2019 16:41

I don’t think breaking the GFA is going to make the UK hit the top of anyone’s list of rogue states.

prettybird · 24/02/2019 16:41

The dad I was talking to at the rugby UV also said he has a lot of business dealings in the Middle East. He said that they think that the UK is nuts and are utterly bemused by the collective madness Confused

DGRossetti · 24/02/2019 16:52

I don’t think breaking the GFA is going to make the UK hit the top of anyone’s list of rogue states

You must have hit post before explaining why you think that.

SisterOfDonFrancisco · 24/02/2019 16:56

It'll be WA. Hopefully a GE shortly afterwards and a labour government.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 16:58

Aparty from the E27 countries,
the US, Australia and every other country within the Irish diaspora is likely to refuse any trade deal with the UK,
until it agrees to at least the terms of the backstop again

That means the UK will be isolated diplomatically from its closest allies and also exports will be hammered by WTO tariffs and NTBs (Non-Tariff barriers)
Some countries might even apply punitive tariffs in retaliation for breaking the GFA

mummmy2017 · 24/02/2019 17:00

What about the White Elephant in the room.
The EU from what has been said see nothing changing .
They think it will be no deal.
12th March . TM will have nothing different to offer.. bully girl is saying her way, or no deal.
Labour can't and won't back her.
JC is just as spineless.
So it will be as we said not possible to agree anything.. no deal as default...
And TM can say she tried, and in her head she did..

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 17:00

May is hoping enough Tory & Labour MPs will blink to pass her WA

The chances of Labour winning the next GE under Corbyn look very slim; under another leader, even McDonnell, they'd have a good chance

Inniu · 24/02/2019 17:22

@DGRosesetti because realistically being a rogue nation is a political decision. Most world leaders will not make the UK an international pariah.
It may make it more difficult to make trade deals but I don’t think there will be sanction against the UK.

The damage to the UK will be a direct result of Brexit without other countries having to deliberately sanction the UK for breaching the GFA.

TalkinPeece · 24/02/2019 17:26

The UK will never be a rogue nation
but countries will strike very hard bargains with any country that has shown itself to treat contracts in bad faith
as China is discovering at the moment with Huawei and the Trump sanctions that everybody else is going along with

LonelyandTiredandLow · 24/02/2019 17:27

Had a table of leavers next to us for our pub lunch. They loudly said "May is stubborn but that's exactly what we need to make the Eurocrats listen. They'll blink at the last minute. I can't believe the Good Friday Agreement is being held against us. I understand the boarder is a nightmare, so what they need to do is move the boarder!" Hmm Shock

After these threads it's shocking how little they understand of what is going on or how history makes their ideas glaringly idiotic.

Yesterday I overheard a young labour local 'recruiting' an even younger boy. They were in a coffee shop and he was explaining to the new "comrade" that they meet every week to read Trotsky and Lenin and debate as well as passing motions about whether traitors who leave Labour should have by-elections, given the recent 'developments'. No mention of Brexit other than that. The most worrying part was when the new 'comrade' said he was still at school and the elder said "wonderful, as obviously we can't get into the schools, so you can be our man on the ground and help us educate!". Hmm. All felt rather odd to overhear.

bellinisurge · 24/02/2019 17:27

It doesn't have to be No Deal -@mummmy2017 . We need to accept WA.
Or we can fuck off like petulant teenagers that can't be trusted.
Being grown up is hard and full of compromises. Which is what WA is.

mummmy2017 · 24/02/2019 17:31

bellinisurge. Right now any other deal that WA needs EU approval. There is nothing being floated they can agree too.
Why as they say should they extended A50 just to have more months of the same.

1tisILeClerc · 24/02/2019 17:34

From the Guardian opinion column by Will Hutton.
{The Japanese aren’t daft – that’s why they’re getting out of Brexit Britain }
This is what the UK negotiators have totally ballsed up on. OK only one of many instances, but it is important and will have far reaching consequences. Short term UK political fluff meets serious long term planning, running to decades.

mrslaughan · 24/02/2019 17:36

DH was wondering if TM's obvious utter contempt for parliament would give the speaker the motivation to accept independent bills? Could that work if enough MP's could get together and agree? (Would have to be cross party..,)

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 17:39

Mummy The EU won't blink, but MPs might and hence pass the WA

The EU have said pretty openly they'd accept a short A50 extension, because they want to show they gave the Uk every chance to sort themselves out
and because the EU could also use the extra prepping time for No Deal

  • they are much further along than the UK and anyway have far less to do, but they still need more time ... or they won't be able to process UK exports
mummmy2017 · 24/02/2019 17:43

Sorry, last I read they had said no, but that was last week, which is a long time in politics.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 17:44

Anyone sad that the purpose of Westminstenders will be over in under 6 weeks?

Well have no fear.

We might yet be here until 2021....

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Brexit could be delayed until 2021, EU sources reveal
Donald Tusk is said to favour extending negotiating period if Commons continues to reject May’s deal

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Missbel · 24/02/2019 17:44

Apparently EU now talking about a 21 month extension

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

If only....

Missbel · 24/02/2019 17:44

Ooops, sorry Red our posts coincided.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 17:45

May explicitly said a few weeks ago that it's her deal or delaying Brexit a long time.

This ties in with that.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 17:45

MrsL Opposition MPs only have occasional days on which they can propose their own bills
and iirc smaller parties won't have a day before Brexit

So, they would have to tag on their amendment to a government bill, if they want to pass something

The Speaker usually accepts at least 1 amendment from smaller parties
and the Tiggers now have more MPs than the LDems.

So, he'd likely accept an amendment from the Tiggers that is likely to receive wider support in the HoC

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 17:49

May has to request an extension.
The EU can hint strongly they'd grant it, but legally the request has to come from the Uk PM

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 17:54

Note about the delayed meaningful vote. This was talked about previously and isn't new info. Instead this vote this week was rumoured to be just for amendments with the meaningful vote falling on the 21st March.

The MV is now scheduled for earlier than that on 12th March.

And if Cooper-Boles passes it comes into effect on the 13th March if May has not passed the WA.

So in effect what seems to have actually happened is the prospect of losing the vote this week has focused May's mind. And she's been forced to revise her plan back.

High Noon definitely looks to STILL be this week in practice with May using it all against the ERG to persuade them that its the WA or an extension which might be an elephant trap to stop Brexit.

And the EU are seemingly also helping with talk of a lengthy extension.

So personally I'm not too concerned about the news that the MV has been delayed, because my understanding has been for a while that the MV wasn't this week and was scheduled for March.

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SandAndSnow · 24/02/2019 17:55

I've been lurking for ages but haven't had anything to add. Thank you all for your thoughtful and enlightening discussion.

Does anyone know, if TM requests an extension for say 3 months, could the EU then say, yes we will grant you an extension, but not if three months, only of 21 months?

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