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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:26

red Well, it's a long time since Hoey was genuinely Labour, so a natural mistake !

I'm amazed there were as many as 24 Independents as recently as 1968
That was about when I started taking interest in politics, but I wouldn't have noted something like that

I wonder if that was another freak year

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:27

Mr Memory @AmIRightSir
Have been asked whether the current total of 20 independent MPs is a record - firstly, it somewhat depends on how you define it e.g. those MPs elected as an independent, those who choose to leave their parties, those who become involuntarily independent due to whip suspension

However, since 1900 the biggest totals seem to be during the wartime Parliament, when by early 1944 there were 24 independent MPs of various types, and during February 1968 when there were 26, including 24 Lab MPs who had the whip suspended for a month

Tom Hunter @OneLifeStand87
What the hell happened in 68?

Mr Murphy @MurphyHistory
What on Earth did Wilson suspend 24 of his own MPs for?

Mr Memory @AmIRightSir
Following devaluation at the end of 1967, the government introduced spending cuts including reintroduction of some NHS charges, defence cuts including withdrawal East of Suez, postponing raising the school leaving age to 16 - those MPs who abstained were suspended

It does make me wonder if May might actually attempt a Harold Wilson on her dissenting MPs later this week, to force them to either support her or jump ship.

I really can't rule out the prospect of it, given her previous. It IS unlikely... BUT...

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BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 18:28

Ive heard comments making the point that in recent weeks she has been less specific about the date of leaving when asked at PMQ, but I missed last week and whether she has reiterated the date.

Could be. I confess I haven't been paying close enough attention to say if she has specified the date in the last week. I have it in my head she has, but I might have lost track of time and don't have the mental strength to check through the news feeds to find out.

If she was prepared to say the choice is WA or long extension that would certainly galvanise things though the ERG would implode with fury and I'm still not convinced she's prepared to upset them that much.

Oh well, I think maybe I'll just ignore it for a bit and see what happens next week.

TokyoSushi · 24/02/2019 18:28

Thank so much @BigChocFrenzy and @Missbel really helpful.

So 'Parliament must act to stop her' is theoretically possible but a bloody nightmare to actually do.

A bit like standing about shouting 'do something!' but not actually doing anything when everything around you is on fire 🔥

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:35

BTW, the timing of the Meaningful Vote now looks like May WANTS Cooper-Boles to pass because this means that it strengthens her hand with the ERG.

(Yes, this is stupidly and ridiculously complicated).

She gets to look pissed off, and still pro-Brexit but it also makes her deal look more attractive to those hardliners in the ERG who would happily take no deal accidentally if they have the opportunity.

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prettybird · 24/02/2019 18:35

....missed out the important words with a deal in my earlier post Blush

"We still have it within our grasp to leave the EU with a deal by the 29th of March"

Easilyflattered · 24/02/2019 18:36

It's all starting to feel a bit uneasy, like May and her loyal MPs are so commited to their own agenda that nothing can stop them, even their own MP s publicly defecting. (Much love for Allen here in Cambs after last week).

I'm just old enough to remember the poll tax riots. I've never felt so overlooked, powerless, and unrepresented as a voter. Is May really so blind to public feeling, or does she just not care?!!

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:37

www.independent.ie/irish-news/varadkar-warns-that-ireland-is-not-playing-chicken-on-brexit-backstop-37848220.html

Responding to comments from UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove who claimed progress is being made on either a time-limit to the backstop or unilateral exit mechanism for the UK,

the Taoiseach said if people don’t understand that’s not going to happen “I don’t think there is any more I can do to help them."

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:38

Is May really so blind to public feeling, or does she just not care?!!

Yes.

You are correct.

On both.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:39

Tokyo I don't think it is even theoretically possible to legally force her, since no constitutional expert has yet said specifically how it could be done

It could only be by applying sufficient political pressure

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 18:42

Rob Powell @robpowellnews
NEW: At the grassroots National Conservative Convention in Oxford - 80% of attendees have voted for there to be no delay to Brexit and for 'no deal' to be left on the table. Clear message there and totally the opposite of what the Rudd/Gauke/Clark piece today calls for #Brexit

The National Convention is the governing body of the Tory voluntary wing. So lots of on-the-ground activists and constituency members. Today’s vote is not binding in any way but sends a clear message from the grassroots that they don’t want a delay to #Brexit

So if I was a Conservative MP calling for a Brexit delay with a slim majority in a leave voting constituency, I might be a bit worried @AmberRuddHR

Here is the full motion from the National Conservative Convention this morning where grassroots members voted against a delay to Brexit and against no deal coming off the table

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:48

red May backs away from confrontation.

imo, she wouldn't actually remove the whip even temporarily, because she'd run the risk of those MPs defecting permanently

AND

  • if the number of disssenting MPs is sufficiently large -
the Tories might become, even during any period of suspension, no longer the largest party

in which case Corbyn would bring a Motion of No Confidence and either try to take over as PM or force a GE
He almost certainly wouldn't succeed, as the suspended MPs would stop him, but she doesn't need that added risk of say the ERG going ape to ensure No Deal Brexit.

imo, she is determined to stay as PM until Brexit happens - preferably her WA unless time runs out - and at least a few weeks beyond then

Peregrina · 24/02/2019 18:55

imo it is quite possible that May would seize on this as a way out of the political hole she has dug for herself

Does May even really she has dug a hole for herself? I really think that she is of the opinion that everyone is out of step except her.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 18:59

She probably realises she is in a hole,
but thinks it is because of other silly people not giving her what she demands

BestIsWest · 24/02/2019 19:01

Pmk

Tonsilss · 24/02/2019 19:01

.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 19:54

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47351650
Brexit: What does 12 March 'meaningful vote' date tell us?
By Laura Kuenssberg

From the article:
It's absolutely plain that she doesn't want to delay Brexit in any way. An extension, in her view, doesn't solve any of the dilemmas.

But she has also never actually 100% said that she would never, ever, ever end up doing that. Simply, she can't, because Parliament might take the decision out of her hands, or the prospect of a defeat might force her to move.

Indeed, a senior figure in government is convinced that Number 10 will find a way, if the votes are stacking up, of taking leaving without a deal off the table by implication, next week.

They said it would be "difficult to envisage her actually saying it". Theresa May is not about to dance down Downing Street declaring that she would never take us out of the EU without a deal.

But she might try to pre-empt a defeat in Parliament next week that would force her to do just that.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 20:00

Ivan Rogers slams UK government, again

https://www.politico.eu/article/ivan-rogers-slams-u-k-ministers-again/

The former top diplomat said Britain’s political class lives in a fantasy land.
......
Rogers reserved his greatest astonishment for that the fact that British businesses to have no idea about their terms of trade in five weeks time:
"I can think of no parallel for this in the postwar annals of developed countries"

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 20:00

Nikki da Costa @nmdacosta
Great updates as always from @bbclaurak! Am intrigued that a "source suggests, if ...the PM was to make a point about the executive's "constitutional deference to the Commons" that might just do the trick". Hmmm, have they been reading my suggestions
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/23/remainer-rebels-plotting-cripple-pm-next-week-need-step-back/
The Remainer rebels plotting to cripple the PM next week need to step back from the brink

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
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colouringinpro · 24/02/2019 20:04

This is now really stressing out my lovely dad which makes me beyond furious AngryAngryAngry

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 20:06

Tom Watson talking of leading a new "central Labour" faction - a party within a party ?

https://www.politico.eu/article/tom-watson-uk-opposition-in-crisis-deputy-leader-admits-jeremy-corbyn-anti-semitism/

The deputy leader of Britain's main opposition party has admitted the party is in crisis, and called on party leader Jeremy Corbyn personally to tackle anti-Semitism in the party.

Tom Watson, speaking to the BBC's Andrew Marr, said that he had fielded 50 complaints about alleged anti-Semitism within the party,
and issued a challenge for Corbyn to make a "personal intervention" to address all 50 of them.

"There's almost a sort of crisis for the soul of the Labour party now,"
Watson said, looking back on a week in which nine Labour MPs quit the party, including eight of them joining The Independent Group.

Issuing a direct challenge to Corbyn, Watson said:
"Jeremy needs to understand that if we’re going to be in No. 10 that he needs to change the Labour Party."

Corbyn and Watson have publicly disagreed in recent days about the scale of bullying and anti-Semitism within the Labour party

Watson went on to say he is considering forming a faction of centrist Labour MPs
to push moderate positions that are not represented on Corbyn's current front bench.

"I'm standing up for pluralism in our ranks because that's the only way we'll hold our party together,"

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 20:08

An amendment is binding if the wording says 'instructs the government'.

Apparently.

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1tisILeClerc · 24/02/2019 20:17

A little light relief!

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 20:32

Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat

https://www.politico.eu/article/muscat-mays-charm-offensive-wont-change-eus-brexit-course/

"if someone thinks the EU will give in to any sort of change in tack from what's being done so far, it's a mistake,"
...There are no exceptions to the single market, to the four freedoms.
This is what we really believe in,"
...
I don't think we can fudge on principles,"

Instead Muscat urged fellow European Union leaders to focus on a long-term plan to convince the U.K. to rejoin the EU within a generation.

"Our aim should be that, in our generation, we make sure that the European project thrives in a way that the next generation of British politicians ask for their country to approve that the U.K. rejoins the European Union,"
adding "it will be a different EU for sure."
...
Muscat said that despite the country's historic ties with Britain as a former colony, it knows where its allegiances are:^
with the EU.
....
"I told her that if there is one country that wants badly a deal with between the U.K. and the EU it's us, for obvious historical reasons mostly.
But we will never break ranks.

We will never break ranks with the EU because the EU is our family,"

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 20:38

British Steel faces €110 million Brexit bill

I posted before how UK airlines had their permits for "Carbon trading" suspended from 1 January 2019
and that this was a major reason why FlyBMI went under

Now this is another industry affected by the same measure
I wonder how many more, especially in manufacturing

This could go on for many months if we have an A50 extension, because the EU won't issue these annual carbon permits when they don't know if we'll be part of the EU carbon market for the full year.

https://www.politico.eu/article/british-steel-last-victim-of-brexit-uncertainty-report/

The EU suspended the company’s free carbon permits as part of Brexit no-deal contingency planning

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