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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 24/02/2019 15:09

prettybird Flowers for you and your beautiful cat X

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 15:10

No, mother absolutely not
We need our democratic representatives to step up and put country before party & career

We most definitely don't want a coup, during this or any future government.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 15:14

Marmot Passing the WA means that we legally Brexit
It will be on 29 March unless we request - and receive - an extension

Refusing to pass the WAIB after that would be suicidal, because we would be out of the EU, but not have legislation in place to actually function properly !
It would be chaos - and parts of business etc would no longer be able to function

BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 15:28

So pushing this back and refusing to even consider an extension for any reason results in WA legislation issues chaos or no deal chaos.

I can only assume at this stage that May is doing this with full awareness of the consequences of her actions. She is knowingly setting out to destroy what little of our country and its democracy remains.

MadAboutWands · 24/02/2019 15:29

PMK

TokyoSushi · 24/02/2019 15:33

PMK 12th March?! Surely we can't go on like this until then??

MadAboutWands · 24/02/2019 15:36

Tbh I’ve long ago stopped hoping for a breakthrough.
MPs are too shy and unused to stand up for themselves and use the power they do have.
They might finally do it. But not before we have hit No Deal and started to suffer badly form the consequences. They are not ready to put the safety of their seat and the protection of a party (that tells them what to do) into jeopardy yet.

I can see many more months of mess whilst we try and deal with queues at the border, food and medicines struggling to get through alongside the pound collapsing.

MadAboutWands · 24/02/2019 15:37

She is knowingly setting out to destroy what little of our country and its democracy remains.
You have to assume yourself if it’s not an outcome she is actually comfortable about (esp of it means her cherished immigration targets are finally met)

Sostenueto · 24/02/2019 15:41

I do t think I have been so angry and frustrated as I feel now. Wtf is TM playing at? This a whole country on the verge of self destruction here and still she does not listen. March 12th is she having a laugh? I'm doubting her sanity at the moment and mine! Don't think I can take much more of this.Sad

Sostenueto · 24/02/2019 15:49

prettybird so sorry to hear about your cat. I know what it is to lose a beloved pet.Flowers

EweSurname · 24/02/2019 15:50

I think James Patrick’s assessment of a near 100% chance of no deal happening is right. There is neither time nor political capabilities to do anything else.

golondrina · 24/02/2019 15:52

PMK

Sostenueto · 24/02/2019 15:54

I think it is cloud cuckoo land to think MPs will put their country first. After all there's not anyone in HoC that will suffer like people in my position and much worse off than me and those working like my dd and still can't make ends meet. They dont have to fear about doing without.

Sostenueto · 24/02/2019 15:57

I'm done with every member of HoC and this government, they are all the same. I am totally ashamed of the lot of them.

L1minal · 24/02/2019 15:59

I actually feel in a bad place mentally about all this now. It's like deliberate psychological torture. Every day is a rollercoaster of daring to hope someone, anyone with a shred of sense and responsibility will DO something, and then having those hopes ground underfoot.

I just want it all to stop.

yolofish · 24/02/2019 16:03

prettybird what a beautiful kitty, I am so sorry. It's really tough to lose a much loved pet. Flowers.

prettybird · 24/02/2019 16:03

I think the thing about May is that not only has her government already been found to be in contempt of parliament over a specific issue, but that she is showing herself, personally to be contemptuous OF Parliament ShockAngry

I can envisage the Speaker being very supportive of motions to curtail the contempt she is showing for "This Place" Wink

Backwoodsgirl · 24/02/2019 16:06

I think the most prudent thing to do at this point is to accept that a no deal exit is happening, and to give up on the useless government.

I am telling all my family in the UK to prepare to survive, or to get out while they can.

TalkinPeece · 24/02/2019 16:10

@prettybird
Two of my old cats are buried in the garden. It was nice to be able to chat to them while working in the sunshine today.
They never really leave you Flowers

DGRossetti · 24/02/2019 16:10

I think the most prudent thing to do at this point is to accept that a no deal exit is happening, and to give up on the useless government.

That was my take after Xmas. I ask again - if you look behind you, is there nothing but a straight line from 30/3/2017 and no-deal on 29/3/2019 ? It's all I can see.

prettybird · 24/02/2019 16:11

Speaking to a dad at the rugby club today: he says his firm (in the construction supply industry) has had to increase its stocks at a cost of £1.5 million, which has knackered their cash flow Sad, as they can't afford to have supplies blocked at the ports. They can't stockpile more than that as the polymers involved aren't stable for longer. Sad

MaudBaileysGreenTurban · 24/02/2019 16:12

This is insane. I agree L1minal - it is a kind of psychological torture.

I don't know how she is getting away with this madness.

borntobequiet · 24/02/2019 16:13

I think this extreme taking it to the wire was predicted - or at least given as a possibility - many many months ago (if not longer) on these threads, specifically (I think) by Red.
TM has got to the highest position in the land by listening to nobody else (apart from her two departed advisors Hill and Timothy), being stubborn and circumventing protocol wherever necessary. From her point of view, this works, so it’s not surprising she still thinks she can get her way (her WA) by sheer force of immovability.
There was a surprise piece on the pro-Brexit centrist party Renew on World this Weekend today. I seem to remember signing up to something on their website ages ago, but never heard back, so assumed they weren’t serious.

SwedishEdith · 24/02/2019 16:20

pmk.

DGRossetti · 24/02/2019 16:33

I think this extreme taking it to the wire was predicted - or at least given as a possibility - many many months ago (if not longer) on these threads, specifically (I think) by Red.

Viewed from afar, it's a paradigm of how "British" thinking really never quite clicked with "European" thinking. Apparent from before the referendum with all the bellicose grandstanding of the Farage contingent, treating Brexit as some sort of fight rather than a reasoned discussion leading to a consensus solution.

The only question of any concern is how the UK can actually progress a no deal. And the horrible answer is simply: it cannot. The moment the UK tries to break the GFA with any hint of a border, it will leapfrog North Korea as a rogue state #1. With all that suggests.

What most non-Westminstenders don't really get is that the rest of the world is watching this damn well knowing it's something the UK has bought on itself. Which is why there will be no sympathy or accommodation in anything except flashes of enlightened self interest.

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