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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/02/2019 10:27

That is an interesting analysis stilltalkstotrees which reminds me, I'm off out to go and admire some trees. (go for a walk)

prettybird · 27/02/2019 10:33

Interesting questionniare: it has its own bias in the questions it asks - and the questions it doesn't ask Confused

For example, it didn't ask if you had ever voted Labour - only if you'd ever been a member of the Labour Party Hmm

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 10:33

That poll is fucked. Q16 won't get any usable data.

Motheroffourdragons · 27/02/2019 10:36

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 10:45

But its a pointless exercise asking how you would vote in the next GE including the TIGgers in that - same with the polls we have seen

Most interesting was the absence of a "don't know" option - only "other" and "would not vote".

Meaning they won't be able to identify people who could vote Labour, but who as things stand won't.

There was also a lack of questioning suggesting not Brexiting, suggesting that a vote for Labour is still going to be counted as a vote for Brexit.

Littlespaces · 27/02/2019 10:49

What was question 16 again?

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 10:56

What was question 16 again?

"If there was a general election tomorrow, how would you vote ?"

I couldn't answer "correctly" as there was no "don't know" option, which is my situation (not "other", which implies I've decided to vote for an unlisted party).

Also there was nothing in the questions that suggested the results would actually change anything Labour is doing - like "what could the Labour party do about Brexit ?" for example.

The cynic in me thinks they already have decided what to do, and this poll is the fig leaf to justify it. Even if I hadn't worked with marketeers, I'm old enough to remember "Yes Minister" and how polls work ...

prettybird · 27/02/2019 11:02

That questionnaire is ripe for being abused manipulated as there is not even a basic email verification Hmm

So you can complete it again from a different device using a made up email address Wink

67chevvyimpala · 27/02/2019 11:05

Done it. Thanks.

Yogurty · 27/02/2019 11:06

Doesn't look like an official Labour poll to me. Punctuation error on the first page and I've had no emails (as a member) about it. No indication of on whose behalf they're polling, no contact details, no official logos etc. How can they tell if they're reaching any sort of representative sample? I've only looked at the first page, so I have no idea what the rest of it is like.

If it is an official poll, it's pretty shoddy.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 11:09

If it is an official poll, it's pretty shoddy.

Par for the course, these days. Everything is turning to shit. Remember the official documents we've seen. Hardly the apogee of the language.

Yogurty · 27/02/2019 11:13

DGR

True, but as a very ancient, long-standing (but also disenchanted) Labour member, I still, vainly, hope for better. Furthermore, it doesn't look like the usual shite that they email me (endlessly).

1tisILeClerc · 27/02/2019 11:14

Quite good for a year 8 'IT' project and no I am not filling it in!

Missbel · 27/02/2019 11:18

Going back to the Government Report on the Implications of Brexit, I am pretty sure that the Leavers of my acquaintance would insist that as it had been drafted by civil servants who (on the basis of zilch hard evidence, but the Daily Express tells them it's true) they believe to be biased in favour of the EU, it is simply more project fear.

May is running rings round the H of C; it really is past time that the moderates in her own party actually did something other than wringing their hands and wailing. She may have been forced into changing her position in terms of her statement to the House yesterday but she's still holding on to "Leave with M(a)y deal on 29th March." If we have to leave, I'd prefer it to be with a deal rather than no deal but whatever deal we get is only the start of negotiations and years more wrangling and uncertainty. Sad

Yogurty · 27/02/2019 11:38

Bearing in mind that in last week's PMQs, both Corbyn and May managed to avoid talking about the defecting MPs, what other minor details do we think they're going to avoid mentioning today?

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 11:45

Brilliant billboard on a van went flying past just before Vince Cable talking on BBC....' Never trust a Tory' Grin

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 11:56

Well just done survey. With my conflicting answers they might have a job deciphering it!Grin
So 12 o'clock slag each other off PMS questions approaches. I dare someone to stand up and ask when May is resigning or if there's a GE in may will she resign before she's pushed. She's laughing up her sleeve now at HoC as all she has to do is sit back and watch the fun. She need do no more than that.

SusanWalker · 27/02/2019 12:05

That question as to whether the government's approach to brexit was what you voted for was badly set up. There was no box to say you didn't vote for brexit. I'd already told them I'd voted remain in a previous question.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 12:14

That question as to whether the government's approach to brexit was what you voted for was badly set up. There was no box to say you didn't vote for brexit. I'd already told them I'd voted remain in a previous question.

Like the Pakistani cricket scores for 2020, the results of that poll were available in advance ...

BiglyBadgers · 27/02/2019 12:19

Had a little Google and the survey is from Labour Future which appears to be a labour campaign group rather that the labour HQ. Their about page on the website made my brain explode a bit but looking around Google it seems they are a small group set up last year by a labour donor called John Mills.

www.labourfuture.org.uk/about

www.google.com/amp/s/labourlist.org/2018/06/labour-is-stronger-united-thats-why-we-founded-labour-future/%3famp

LonelyandTiredandLow · 27/02/2019 12:20

I completed it but feel the same - polls seem to be the only way parties are engaging with the electorate; no wonder they come up with binary options!

LonelyandTiredandLow · 27/02/2019 12:22

He's a leaver - so I suspect it will be twisted into why we should No Deal.

BiglyBadgers · 27/02/2019 12:22

So basically it's not a serious labour survey and probably will have no influence at all. So I'm not wasting my time on it or handing out my email address to randoms.

BiglyBadgers · 27/02/2019 12:22

He's a leaver - so I suspect it will be twisted into why we should No Deal.

That explains a lot about it I think.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 27/02/2019 12:26

I gave my bumf email address. It's where emails go to die Grin