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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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Random18 · 26/02/2019 23:07

I know they won’t remove a deal.

But I just can’t see a way out of this . Not with this dictator

RedToothBrush · 26/02/2019 23:09

Jonathan Lis @ jonlis1
Exactly her strategy, but I wonder if there’s a way around it. If we missed the elections, got to June and then realised we were heading for disaster again, Commission would almost certainly devise emergency plans for UK MEPs to serve on interim basis before a new UK vote

I don't know whether hoping this is possible is merely a unicorn.

Lonely that's been globals business plan for some time. They have just been trying to find ways to do it without losing licence for broadcast as the limited bandwidth of analogue meant there were criteria they had to meet to get a frequency allocated to them in a particular area. I will never forgive them over xfm and making it 'radio for boys' and pretty much sacking everyone working in Manchester for xfm over night. The station is a shadow of its former self.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 23:17

red No, the EU would make holding EU elections a condition of granting any extension that lasts longer than 1 June.

Since these negotiations have told them that May / the UK will renege on anything if the ERG glares at her,
I would expect a signed legal agreement stating that the extension would end immediately if the elections weren't held by the soonest date legally possible.

What these negotiations should have told everyone in the UK is that the EU will NOT risk significant harm to itself,
just in order to help a lleaving country out of a mess it got itself into.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 23:19

If the UK decided late enough that would be a gap, then the EU might impose swingeing conditions

  • to concentrate UK political minds -
for the inconvenience of max 5 weeks interim solution / EP suspension
BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 23:25

They might make it a condition of granting even a shorter extension to 1 June,
that the UK has to place legislation to hold MEP elections on Thursday 6 June, unless it has already Brexited

Yes, the UK & its political parties would incur expense if they were force to prepare for an election that then didn't happen because of Brexit

And no, the EU wouldn't care

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 06:43

TO SUMMARISE, MAY OUTWITS THE COMMONS AGAIN. Once again she's made it her deal or no deal - unless there is an explicit amendment made which passes the HoC and asks for an extension past July 1st. As it stands it looks like Cooper-Boles is going to now fail as its 'not necessary'. So no deal is very much possible and the only alternative is May's deal. Not that any fucker in the HoC seems to have worked out the stitch up yet.....
Yes, exactly what I said yesterday, TM really is a crafty old bird who is going to ruin this country whether HoC accept her deal or we end up leaving with no deal. I also said days ago she would dangle a big carrot to save her party. I thought Thatcher was bad enough but May really is a she-devil.
Soubry trying to get full no deal impact report to be published. Let's hope she succeeds.

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 06:48

I wish we could all march into HoC to tell those f*tards how useless and ruiness to this country they are.

GeistohneGrenzen · 27/02/2019 06:56

My waking dream was a swift sectioning or exorcism. But by whom? Sad Ah well better get on with real life I suppose...

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 06:58

Heres a quote from impact assessment.
Soubry says it is much worse than this ( she has seen full report) and she now wants the full report published for all to see.

The government's report, which was drawn up for the cabinet, said: "One of the most visible ways in which the UK would be affected by delays in goods crossing the Channel is our food supply, 30% of which comes from the EU."

Possible disruption to cross-Channel trade "would lead to reduced availability and choice of products", the document said.

"This would not lead to an overall shortage of food in the UK, and less than one in 10 food items would be directly affected by any delays across the short Channel crossings.

"However, at the time of year we will be leaving the EU, the UK is particularly reliant on the short Channel crossings for fresh fruit and vegetables.

"In the absence of other action from government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario.

"As of February 2019, many businesses in the food supply industry are unprepared for a no-deal scenario."

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 07:09

The publication of the document follows a proposed amendment last month from former Conservative MP Anna Soubry and backed by ex-Labour MP Chuka Umunna - who are both now members of the newly-formed Independent Group.

In the Commons, Ms Soubry told MPs that the document was only a summary and she asked for access to the papers "which actually go into the detail", which she was shown in privy council terms (confidential terms).

"It's the detail that actually fully explains the impact of a no-deal Brexit, leaving the Brexit Secretary to comment that it would be 'ruinous' for this country," she said.

Deputy speaker Lindsay Hoyle said he was "sorry" that Ms Soubry felt she had been "slightly short-changed on what would be available".

"I would expect ministers to take on board your request and hopefully... you will pursue it other than on this point of order," he said.

And Mr Umunna said the report painted "a disastrous picture of the catastrophe which would befall our country if there is a no-deal Brexit".

"In light of what she knows, it is utterly irresponsible for the Prime Minister to keep a no-deal Brexit on the table given the extreme damage it will do," he said.

"These papers set out how food prices will rise, we may see panic buying, there will be severe disruption at the border, and jobs and livelihoods would immediately be put at risk.

"Today she told the House of Commons she is listening, but MPs have passed a motion rejecting a no-deal Brexit and yet she refuses to request an extension of the Article 50 process in order to stop no-deal happening."

Apparently she withdrew her amendment on a promise that full details will be given.

Peregrina · 27/02/2019 07:33

As it stands it looks like Cooper-Boles is going to now fail as its 'not necessary'. So no deal is very much possible and the only alternative is May's deal. Not that any fucker in the HoC seems to have worked out the stitch up yet.....

Why anyone in Parliament believes a word May says must be a bigger fool that they look. My only hope is that in the process of wrecking the UK she wrecks the Tory party with it and instead of "Brexit means Brexit and I intend to make a success of it", if it destroys the United Kingdom as an entity then she and Cameron will go down in history as the people responsible.

Of course, in time, (say 50 years) being a small country, of maybe just England, or maybe England and Wales, any delusions of being a big Empire will have well and truly bitten the dust. Historians will be amazed - this started with a spat among a handful of wealthy men in the Tory party.

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 07:33

You can't exactly panic buy perishables. Thank goodness for my seeds!Grin

Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 07:36

Ironic really thus started with Cameron trying to keep the Tory rebels at bay and his party together and ends with May doing exactly the same to keep her party together and the whole country goes down the swanee never to be heard of again.Sad

Peregrina · 27/02/2019 07:41

Cameron, May and the rest of the shower, won't be a bit repentant either. It makes me angry.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/02/2019 07:44

It actually feels an awful lot more unstable and potentially disastrous than it did before Mays speech yesterday.

Motheroffourdragons · 27/02/2019 08:04

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Stilltalkstotrees · 27/02/2019 08:10

An interesting analysis of the Govt’s latest no deal impact assessment. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1100537973077090304.html

borntobequiet · 27/02/2019 08:24

Carolyn Fairbairn, DG of Confed. of British Industry, sounding incandescent with rage (in a controlled way) on Today this morning, sometime I think between 7:30 and 8. Describes David Davis' language in newspapers as "reckless". I did get the feeling she'd like to call him lots of very bad names.

In other news, I see that the BBC and ITV are collaborating on a British rival to Netflix, provisionally called Britbox. To me that sounds a very unwise choice of name, especially when the UK is presenting itself internationally as mad as a box of frogs. Or is it only me?

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 27/02/2019 08:27

sos my mp sent a constituency email yesterday saying it’s a stitch up - so hopefully others have realised too!

Quotes from his mail below. Apologies if the formatting isn’t correct, for some reason I can’t preview.

MadAboutWands · 27/02/2019 09:09

Someone has found the solution to the Brexit dilemma!!

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
lonelyplanetmum · 27/02/2019 09:12

I love the analysis of the govt's impact assessment- also the ration card system distinguishing between Leave and Remain voters.

BiglyBadgers · 27/02/2019 09:15

That Tim Tansley might just be some kind of evil genius. 🤣

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 27/02/2019 09:55

looks at Tim Tansley idea, dons massive British hat
By Jove, I think he's got it.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 10:01

As the future comes (painfully slowly) closer, it's fascinating how the number of Leavers actually willing to own it reduces slightly.

At some point the cries of "That's not my Brexit" should drown out "WE WON, GET OVER IT" ?

Littlespaces · 27/02/2019 10:26

Labour Party short questionnaire to find out views on Brexit. We may as well tell them!

www.polling.org.uk/labour_brexit_and_all_our_future

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