Westminstenders: The Rebellion

[RedToothBrush]

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

The dangers of No Deal were thoroughly discussed here at least, ever since May's Lancaster House speech laying down her red lines,
which were the first indication that it was a serious possibility

It's only in the last 3 weeks or so, maybe less, that there's been new comers on the prepping threads asking and taking advice. I'm a born worrier and tend to prepare for the worst yet hope for the best. It made sense to me to get extra supplies. I've still some bits to add and bits to replenish but am happy with what I have as will see us right for quite a while.
I sincerely hope that those who are vulnerable have a little extra put aside although the stats show it's the vulnerable who voted leave and leavers are less likely to prep.
I feel so despondent.

I think that might be a triple snap, B C F

The EU started giving out its stakeholder guidelines for the various business sectors in 2017 - there are 80+ of them now
and the several individual E27 countries most affected have been giving their own tailored advice

All much earlier and more comprehensive than UK govt advice
because publishing would "give our negotiating hand away"

The govt needs to realise that - even without "spying" as such, we have been integrating for 45 years, so the EU can't help having an intimate knowledge of UK business & what happens in the UK

Atm, I feel their knowledge of this is probably greater than that of our own government, due to lack of understanding about essential facts by UK politicans

As usual, Uk govt secrecy was only ever about keeping things secret from the UK public,
because secrecy is a habit of all UK govts

I'm having fun goading leaver FB chums with businesses about the EORI number, saying it is because of THEM we will have to have an extension

It's all fun and games until someone has to pay out for paperwork
Timely reminder for them of some extra costs that will be entailed in their future...

{It's all fun and games until someone has to pay out for paperwork
Timely reminder for them of some extra costs that will be entailed in their future...}

The estimates for these 'costs' are pretty eyewatering, so add these to tariffs, or more accurately, subtract them from profit it doesn't look good for anyone hoping for pay rises.

I've been appalled by the poor quality and frankly derisory level of detail contained in the U.K. prep docs compared to the much more detailed Eu docs, clearly backed up by comprehensive info campaigns.

However this is more forthright and deserves a read.

As I've said before we are living in a perfect storm. Back in the day, as with y 2k , machinery of gov would have swung into action, engaged with the regional press offices, and a proper campaign would have happened.

Now, because of austerity there are no regional press offices, joined up emergency planning comms training last happened under the last labour gov - and most significantly of all, austerity got rid of vast swathes of senior sensible corporate memory in the civil service.

At a time when we have the worst gov and worst opposition probably ever. When that knowledge and heft is most sorely needed.

Grinchly
It also has to be borne in mind that due to the Local Council elections on 2nd May, many councils will be in purdah for the whole of April and so very limited capacity to make urgent policy decisions.

UK is reminding me very much of the ex husband who is being seduced by a younger woman. He thinks leaving the family home for a cheaper, more enticing model will be easy. It's been decades since he's used a washing machine, cooked, hoovered and had to buy his own clothes. As the younger model becomes more demanding he begins to see that perhaps this wasn't quite worth it after all. Meanwhile the ex wife is finding life on her own to be somewhat freeing and is enjoying watching him walk past the house with is shirt hanging out of his trousers with a cufflink missing.

Anyone else hear the report that since PV is being tabled and extension a possibility, interestingly the pound has also risen to the highest it's been in 21 months? I wonder why?

I gather it dropped a bit again, after May made it "perfectly clear" she intends only a short extension.
Let's see what the EU replies and then what we end up with

That's assuming, of course, that she doesn't miscalculate while playing chicken with the HoC, resulting in an accidental No Deal

I am SO fed up with TM - at best, misguided self-delusion. At worst, misplaced arrogance. She is holding her party, the government and her country hostage to her personal mission.

I get the rage every time I see the BBC News item with Gove going on about the betrayal of the 17.4 million

The 16.1 million either don't exist or are just supposed to shut up

Well, we're not going anywhere.

and that's before even factoring in the demographics of those that have died since the vote and those that have come onto the electoral register since the referendum

I know we have to concentrate 100% on the immediate problem of Brexit,
because the economic effects could result in fewer resources - and public will - to deal with all the other problems.

However, this should be one of the first in the queue afterwards:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/26/terrified-warm-weather-global-warming-london

It shouldn’t be possible to wander round London half-naked in February without bits of you falling off."
^^ ...
The 20 hottest years on record have all happened within the past 22 years;
the five hottest were the last five.

< another tick tock to accompany the Brexit clock >

If TM and the Conservative Party get WA or No Deal and the next few years are at best painful protracted negotiations or at worst a total shit storm, then her 'win' will quickly turn sour.

Very short term thinking.

So this from Ian Dunt and Robert Peston

Robert Peston @peston
Here is my argument that today’s long-term winners from @theresamay’s u-turn may well be @JacobRees_Mogg and the ERG Brexiters rather than @AmberRuddHR and the Gaukward Squad threatening to resign from government
Peston on Facebook

Ian Dunt @iandunt
This is spot on. Today's move increased chances of no-deal, just at a later date. Moderate ministers should ignore the supposed concession and vote for Cooper-Boles. I don't believe they will.

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/26/may-s-article-50-extension-is-a-trick-to-take-us-to-the-real
May's Article 50 extension is a trick to take us to the real cliff edge

Key para is this:
May clearly plans to use this timing to her advantage. She knows there is a complication in Article 50 extensions. That complication is the European parliament election in May. If Britain takes part, even in a strictly formal way, it can keep on extending Article 50 after July. But if it does not take part, July 1st becomes an absolute unextendable cliff edge.

Followed by this:
Brexit committee chair Hilary Benn asked the prime minister what exactly she planned to do with the extension. After all, two months is not enough time for anything - not to plan for no-deal, not for a referendum, not for a renegotiation and not for an election. She blustered as usual. But the answer was quite clear. She would just keep on trying to get her deal through.

There is no change in strategy. As ever - indeed since the very beginning of this process two years ago - she understands that the only positive quality her deal contains is the fact it is better than no-deal. Once we go past May without holding elections, the cliff edge becomes immovable. And then, finally, with all options exhausted, MPs will have to fall in line with her deal or else topple into the abyss. That is how she checkmates her opponents. That's the plan.

It is perfectly visible now. Anyone can see it. But no-one is stopping her. There is only one way to do so: Insist that Britain takes part in the European elections. That means passing the legislation to do so at the point of extending Article 50. Anything else leaves us at her mercy.

The Columnist @sime0nstylites
1. There’s a difference of opinion between sensible people about today’s events.

Specifically, does an extension make No Deal more or less likely?

[Thread]

2. The easy part is determining if MV 2.0 will pass.

It will not.

Yes, 2.0 will do better than 1.0 but the conditional option (the EU willing) of an extension gives everyone a free hit.

3. I’ve no doubt everyone will take another swing.

After MV 2.0’s demise, we can then agree there will be very few votes for No Deal and many votes for an extension.

4. Now the fun begins.

The right answer would be for the government to negotiate with the EU the extension choices available (ie long vs short) and any related conditions

The most obvious of these is participation in the EP elections for a longer extension.

5. The result of this negotiation, which any any half way sensible government would already be undertaking, would be put to a vote in Parliament.

6. Since the Government is demonstrably not sensible, I’m sure they will not proceed in this way.

Instead, without a further imposed course change, there is likely to be a short extension to the end of June.

7. Parliament should act to ensure some control over the extension approval process

8. But let’s assume Parliament does not find a way to act, and an extension to the end of June occurs.

Does this mean No Deal is more likely?

9. The argument No Deal is more likely relies on three points.

10. Firstly, there is no realistic likelihood of a further extension beyond June 2019.

We should assume this is true given the legal issues re not participating in the EP elections.

11. Secondly, the Government is sufficiently unbothered about No Deal to not wish or not be forced to compromise in any way with Labour (or anyone else).

It’s still ‘My Deal or No Deal’.

12. Thirdly, Labour et al are still not prepared to support the Government’s deal.

13. But, to argue that points two and three are correct is IMHO to misunderstand the events of today.

It is also to underestimate the impact of the first point - ie there is no further extension escape route.

14. Today has been a very significant day for Brexit.

Not because of the extension but because of what the Government’s volte face demonstrates.

- There is a substantial majority against No Deal.

- Many Conservative ministers are prepared to vote against the government.

15. The second reason why today is significant has nothing to do with the PM’s statement.

The publication of the No Deal (un)preparedness paper demonstrates the impact of No Deal.

My suspicion is this accounts for a large part of the motivation for the rebel ministers.

16. No Deal is not going to be much (any?) better in June 2019.

As a result, we will continue to see a large and vocal majority against No Deal.

17. If the Government wanted to guarantee Brexit it would find a way to compromise with Labour.

Since it is not a well-functioning government I assume it will continue to resist this.

18. Parliament should act to legislate for an indicative vote process for the various Brexit outcomes

19. And if no compromise is possible...?

20. We’ll end up, belatedly, with TM’s deal.

And a final cut...

TM’s deal three months late means the second extension option is more likely to be triggered.

And so it goes - on and on and on.

/ends

Nick Boles MP @ nickboles
I agree with this assessment in almost every detail. There is a latent cross-party majority for a soft Brexit compromise like Common Market 2.0 and today’s developments have taken us a big step closer to revealing it

TO SUMMARISE, MAY OUTWITS THE COMMONS AGAIN. Once again she's made it her deal or no deal - unless there is an explicit amendment made which passes the HoC and asks for an extension past July 1st. As it stands it looks like Cooper-Boles is going to now fail as its 'not necessary'. So no deal is very much possible and the only alternative is May's deal. Not that any fucker in the HoC seems to have worked out the stitch up yet

May: now do what I tell you.

It's a complete stitch up. In the end I don't think there really will be any other option than to vote for her deal.

Plus ca change.

Can't do cedillas with out effort, meh.

And more

Time for EU to remove the deal? Can’t they even do that?

She is out of control. She needs to be reigned in and then got rid of without it meaning no deal.

*can not can’t

Tin foil hat perhaps, or part of the propaganda machine of the future? Local radio stations to be axed

No, the EU won't remove the only deal that actually exists