Westminstenders: The Rebellion

[RedToothBrush]

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

It's too ironic for words that a situation that developed because some people felt powerless and disconnected from politics has resulted in a hell of a lot more feeling the same. Which is not good for an ordered society.

DG I did wonder when it all started whether that was the deliberate intention - ensure that larger swathes of the public simply didn't bother to vote.

Now I think actually they are trying to put liberals off voting instead.

Bit of light relief clowns struggling with applications after top applicants go into politics

I wonder what Leavers think about this [completely pointless theatre for fools] "two month delay." Will it be (a) a thing they totally foresaw from way back in 2016 and knew they were voting for and which is somehow good, or (b) an unpatriotic undemocratic frustration of The Will of the Brexitatious, or (c) both simultaneously, like Wave-Particle Duality?

TheElements you are of course assuming they will remember what they thought two minutes ago and be able to compare it two days into the future? IME they just change slogan when prompted.

Fishes Did DEFRA miscalculate, or are ministers panicking unnecessarily ?

https://www.businessinsider.de/brexit-michael-gove-ministers-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-no-deal-chaos-2019-2?r=US&IR=T

" • Michael Gove's environment department is set to a hold an emergency meeting with business leaders on Tuesday.

•	They will discuss emergency no-deal Brexit plans 

after the government confirmed last week that it does not have enough pallets
- structures used to transport goods -
for UK companies to export to the EU in a no-deal Brexit.

•	<span class="italic">The extraordinary admission left affected industry leaders baffled."</span>

< they're all going 🤦🏻‍♀️ >

Pretty Your DH has overlooked the fact that the EU are well aware of this potential problem and how to avoid it: 😏

It is true that the EP's decisions could be declared invalid if any coutry doesn't have MPs,
... so the EU would not allow that situation to arise^

The EU has to agree (unanimously) to any extension, so they can set conditions.
They have already said that if the UK wishes to extend past 1 June, they will only agree if the UK holds European Elections.

So, whether the UK uses its extension to dither, to negotiate what it wants in the PD, or to eventually Revoke,
it will have MEPs until Brexit happens, if it does.

btw, When the European Parliament is dissolved before the elections, MEPs do not retain their seats;
same as in the HoC, where MPs don't have their seat in the next Parliament unless they win it in the GE:

Beth A50 requires only that both sides negotiate a framework for the future relationship.

Within its 2-year period, both parties have to settle all past and ongoing obligations, so there is only really time to agree a general framework.

To negotiate the future trade deal would likely take several years
and there might well be changes in government, so the PD should not try to restrict whata completley different government can do.

The problem is that most MPs aren't keen on the chosen future relationship - some want a much closer relationship; some much more distant
However, as written, it leaves it open for the UK to change its mind and negotiate something different.

re the length of extension:

The EU has to agree unanimously and would set conditions - such as EP elections - if it lasts longer than 1 June

The EU would find it politically difficult to refuse ONE extension,
but there is considerable debate - certainly in Germany - about the pros and cons of short or long:

• The original idea of a short extension was that if the WA were passed at the last moment, there would need to be another 2-3 months to properly debate and pass the enabling WAIB
  However, the chances of the WA passing look slim, hence that idea's gone

• If the UK has a PV, the EU have all along said they would offer an extension, probably 6-9 months.

• If No Deal looked inevitable, some in the EU and UK have suggested an extension just to allow more No Deal prepping.
  Neither side is ready for No Deal, especially the UK

• The EU won't accept a series of short extensions, because that would place too much strain on business planning, with a cliff edge always looming
  So, if they think it likely the UK won't be ready after a short extension, they'd push for a longer one instead

• However, some in the EU aren't keen on a long extension of 21 months:
  Those who are less affected by Brexit just want it over, so the EU can concentrate on other matters.
  Also, some smaller countries fear that a long extension would give the UK more time to hack away at the backstop / weaken Ireland's position

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/781768/Implications_for_Business_and_Trade_of_a_No_Deal_Exit_on_29_March_2019.pdf

This makes scary reading!

Yes, the report "Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019"

states the known eceonomic effects
and also that overall, neither business nor ordinary individuals are sufficiently prepared:

e.g.

16. Despite communications from the Government, there is little evidence thatbusinesses are preparing in earnest for a no deal scenario, and evidence indicates that readiness of small and medium-sized enterprises in particular is low.

For example, without an Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number, businesses would not be able to complete the necessary customs documentation for goods they are importing.
As an EORI number registration is one of the most basic and straightforward parts of the process most businesses would need to undertake to prepare for no deal, this is assumed to be a generous indicator of overall readiness.

As of February 2019 there had only been around 40,000 registrations for an EORI number, against an estimate of around 240,000 EU-only trading businesses

That report is worth reading. It says nothing that hasn't already been discussed here before.
But.
Step outside our well informed bubble, read it and think.^
^
This is what our own government is saying.

For example:
^
92% of welsh lamb exported^
Leaving with no deal would lead to tariffs of 70% on British beef 45% on lamb and 10% on vehicles.
^Only 40,000 of the quarter of a million British exporting small/ medium sized companies have applied for the most basic step required to continue trading with the EU.
Costs in increased paperwork to those quarter of a million businesses estimated at £13 billion *per annum
*^

Snap BCF.

I just read this, point 25:

HMRC has estimated that the administrative burden on businesses from customs declarations alone, on current (2016) UK-EU trade in goods could be around £13bn p.a.

oops, snap again, grinchly

iirc, We have Anne Soubry to thank for forcing May to publish this impact assessment

• not surprising the govt wanted to keep it secret as long as possible

We knew most of this from other sources,
but a govt report is less easy for Leavers to rubbish

But I suppose most will still do so.
Or will never notice it or bother to read if we link

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-vote-latest-second-referendum-amendment-tabled-by-independent-group-a4077351.html

Second referendum amendment tabled by Independent Group

Remember the reassurance about meds by Stephen Hammond', Minister of Health:

“While we never give guarantees, we are confident that,
if everyone – including suppliers, freight companies, international partners and the health and care system – does what they need to do,
the supply of medicines and medical products should be uninterrupted in the event of exiting the EU without a deal.”

From that report, we don't know if the vast majority of affected businesses who have NOT done what they need to do,
include any of those that Hammond mentioned for meds

inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-polls-latest-john-curtice-remain-lead-leave-non-voters/

You can see the problem for MPs.

After reading that I am extra grateful to mumsnet preppers for encouraging sensible planning. I suspect anyone with half a brain cell will start buying extra things now. There is a sense of panic and doom that wasn't around two weeks ago. Or maybe that's me projecting but I sense people are a lot more worried than they were. Although one person I spoke to today (professional and ex-colleague) said she had no idea what was going on and just had her head in the sand in her own little family bubble. I got the impression she thought it wouldn't really affect her in any way. It will as has already impacted the profession. Not sure if I envy or pity the bubble dwellers. Both maybe.

Occasionally I would like to take the blue pill and be a bubble dweller for a while - I imagine it's a nice existence.

We know damn well that not everyone is doing what they need to do! No one has prepped for no deal, because it's a ridiculous scenario that wasn't on the cards just a few short months ago! Usual government looking for someone to blame rather than fixing the damn mess!

Au contraire dangermouse.
All of those consequences have been discussed for quite some time.
The report is a civil service document.

{Remain has a ‘consistent’ 53-47 lead} From the article by John Curtis.

Still hardly an overwhelming Europhile response, it needs to be at least upper 60% area, maybe nearer 75% to suggest that the UK actually wants to be in Europe.

True, but business has been asking for details of deals and security on the whole. For a long time it was virtually taken for granted that we'd be staying in the single market somehow.