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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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FishesaPlenty · 26/02/2019 16:44

Because - unless dh is right and our current MEPs can stay on (although that adds in a whole different question about "democracy") into the new EU Parliament - it makes the new EU Parliament itself illegitimate and unable to pass laws as one of the E28 (because the UK is still a member) would not have any representation

I accept it causes some problems but there's still nothing to stop us unilaterally revoking right up to the last minute of any extension period.

Whatever problems it causes will be trivial and easily-solved compared with what we've become used to anyway.

Cherrypi · 26/02/2019 16:55

At least we'll have fruit in the UK if we crash out in the summer.

Littlespaces · 26/02/2019 16:57

I'm planting my garden.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 16:57

I'm guessing neither Tories nor Labour want to spend any money on the work required to field candidates for the EU elections, given their current state of finances. With the added frisson that should the UK end up having to hold EU elections I imagine even more Tory donors will pull the plug.

Missbel · 26/02/2019 16:59

Me too, Littlespaces. Just hoping for a perfect growing season, not too hot and dry. Lovely spring weather, but in my current pessimistic state of mind, can't hep wondering what the summer will bring.

Missbel · 26/02/2019 16:59

*help

Littlespaces · 26/02/2019 17:07

Ken Clarke
May I congratulate the prime minister on accepting that we are not remotely ready for the chaos of a no-deal departure on 29 March? I agree with her that no deal at any time would bring very damaging medium and long-term prospects for the British economy and our wellbeing. I will continue to vote for any withdrawal agreement that she manages to get with the other EU countries, but I doubt that she will command a majority for any such agreement in the near future.

Can I turn to the real issue now? How long is the delay that we are contemplating? The prime minister seems to be giving us a date for a new cliff edge at the end of June, but is not the danger that we will merely continue the present pantomime performance through the next three months, and that the public will be dismayed as we approach that date and find that there is similar chaos about where we are going?

May I suggest that we contemplate a much calmer delay, that we have indicative votes following debates in this House, to see where a consensus or majority lies, and then that we prepare our position for the much more important long-term negotiations that have to take place on the eventual settlement? We cannot have several more years of what we have had for the past two years. We have to start proper negotiations with the EU on what exactly we contemplate as our long-term relationships with the Union

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 17:09

These "absolute deadlines" are starting to look like Status Quo farewell tours ....

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 17:10

We have to start proper negotiations with the EU on what exactly we contemplate as our long-term relationships with the Union

I'm sure all Tories understand the concept of a queered pitch ...

Littlespaces · 26/02/2019 17:16

I thought I was bad at procrastinating but this lot really take the prize.

TalkinPeece · 26/02/2019 17:20

My Broad beans and peas are germinating, as are my tomatoes, aubergines and peppers.
The apple and pear trees and currant and raspberry bushes are pruned
The strawberries are transplanted.
Shame there will be nothing to eat till they are ready though Sad

RedToothBrush · 26/02/2019 17:28

Oliver Letwin @oletwinofficial
Very good news. PM statement does what is needed to prevent no deal exit on 29 March and enables MPs to forge cross-party consensus on new way forward if PM's deal does not succeed on 12 March. No need now for Cooper-Letwin Bill.

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
“No need” for their Bill now...

Yvette Cooper @ yvettecoopermp
As a result of all our cross party arguments & our Bill, PM’s statement today accepts most of provisions of the Bill to provide for votes that can avert No Deal on March 29. We are still laying cross party amendments today in order to secure confirmation of PM’s commitment

We have tabled a cross party amendment to pin down PMs commitments from today & another to get a further day for Commons debate when amendments/options can be put. We’ve also all still laid paving amendment for Bill just to ensure there is no backtracking from anyone in Cabinet

V important that Parliament has forced PM to agree to votes which can prevent damaging & chaotic No Deal. But we will keep up pressure. PM still hasn’t said how Govt wd vote on No Deal; that’s still irresponsible for businesses, public services & families who wd be hit by No Deal

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
Cross party amendments still being laid says Cooper

The original paving amendment for the Cooper-Letwin Bill has gone down tonight [though Letwin has indicated the Bill not required].

Cooper has a further cross party amendment to “pin down the PMs commitments”.

There’s a certain lack of trust here.

The key difference here is that under Cooper Letwin the Commons would have the power to direct the Government in law over timeframe of A50 extension sought. PM under her arrangements can legally keep control and potentially ignore amendments on date mid-March.

Nick Boles MP @ nickboles
That’s not correct Faisal. The motion will be amendable and the PM specifically committed to “seek to agree that extension approved by the House with the EU, and bring forward the necessary legislation to change the exit date commensurate with that extension”

Shoot me. Just shoot me now.

Has no one learned anything in the last two and a half years?!!!

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LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/02/2019 17:36

I might be wrong but i'm sure I saw on FB one of my MEPs was leaving her office. I suspect if they had any idea they would need to participate further this wouldn't be the case. Would be interesting to see if other's have packed up too?

LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/02/2019 17:40

Something to keep us busy for a while...Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019 from HM Gov.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/02/2019 17:42

And here's Mogg's take (I don't think they are as "relaxed" as a previous post suggested:
Jacob Rees-Mogg
(@JacobReesMogg)

My suspicion is that any delay to Brexit is a plot to stop Brexit. This would be the most grievous error that politicians could commit. pic.twitter.com/bVsQIT4Qke

February 26, 2019

Littlespaces · 26/02/2019 17:50

No deal economic shrinkage (from report linked above)

This estimates that the UK economy would be 6.3-9% smaller in the long term in a no deal scenario (after around 15 years) than it otherwise would have been when compared with today’s arrangements, assuming no action is taken. There would also be significant variation across the UK (Wales -8.1%, Scotland -8.0%, Northern Ireland -9.1% and the North East of England -10.5%)

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 17:53

This would be the most grievous error that politicians could commit

Not as grievous as - say - calling a shit referendum and then doing a Lucan afterwards.

Littlespaces · 26/02/2019 17:55

Tariffs (from report linked above)

For example, the EU would introduce tariffs of around 70% on beef and 45% on lamb exports, and 10% on finished automotive vehicles.

Missbel · 26/02/2019 18:02

However, at the time of year we will be leaving the EU, the UK is particularly reliant on the Short Channel Crossings for fresh fruit and vegetables. In the absence of other action from Government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour couldexacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario. As of February 2019, many businesses in the food supply industry are unprepared for ano deal scenario From the Government's own report.

Peregrina · 26/02/2019 18:05

Cooper is right not to trust the Government - even with commitments in writing or matters of law Theresa May seems to think that she can ignore them when and if it suits her.

I hope that when all this Brexit business is settled that a good hard look is taken at Government powers, to stop a rogue PM like Theresa May from making the rules up as she goes along.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/02/2019 18:19

I think it's telling that when you open the report they've not even bothered to title it (if you look at the tab it says "insert title of report") Smile

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 18:19

I hope that when all this Brexit business is settled that a good hard look is taken at Government powers, to stop a rogue PM like Theresa May from making the rules up as she goes along

Things like that don't happen in a vacuum. If she's rogue, then she's been enabled by the spinless creatures in her cabinet, party and ultimately parliament.

Hitler didn't fight every other politician in hand to hand combat in Germany to become Chancellor.

Yaralie · 26/02/2019 18:20

I so look forward to the end of this brexit nonsense. It should be stopped now.

The referendum was corrupt, illegal, won by lies. Any king of brexit would make our country poorer, less secure and reduce our standing in the world. A huge amount of damage has already been done.

Just bin brexit once and for all.

Missbel · 26/02/2019 18:22

DG I'm in total agreement about the members of the government. It's obvious that lots of them can see the damage that this is doing to the country but party loyalty is trumping everything else. Shameful.