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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 10:31

Farage has (according to the Guardian) been on Sky suggesting Leavers should boycott a 2nd referendum if the choice was between WA(TM) and Remain. He “would not campaign and would not vote”.

How else can he keep what vestiges of influence he has ?

LarkDescending · 26/02/2019 10:35

Farage’s big idea seems to be that you delegitimise the referendum (haha) if turnout is too low, though he has had to concede that the last time there was a turnout threshold in a UK referendum was 1979 (Scottish devolution).

Inniu · 26/02/2019 10:37

Back in the days of empire no negotiations were required just a lot of killing and destroying of other people.

The rest of the world objects to this sort of thing now.

lonelyplanetmum · 26/02/2019 10:38

Farage has (according to the Guardian) been on Sky suggesting Leavers should boycott a 2nd referendum

NF has had far too much publicity compared to other MEPs as it is.

Nige if you feelz a boycott is in order then so be it- it's a democratic right to not vote after all Wink!

LarkDescending · 26/02/2019 10:38

Anyway I look forward to seeing the usual suspects unveiling their new bus, proclaiming “Leavers stay at home!”.

TheABC · 26/02/2019 10:39

Watching with detached interest - at this stage, it's rather like the snake that eats its own tail. There will be blood on the floor, it's just a question of when.

Although I did cheer up to hear Farage say he would not campaign in a second referendum. Even though it's a matter of public record that he wanted another go if the original vote was not in his favour.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 10:40

The time has definitely gone, the UK needs to leave, but not for the obvious reasons that the referendum was about. The thin veneer of 'pragmatism' and other good qualities of the UK has been shot to pieces.
The UK needs a time for quiet reflection and detox.

AlphaJuno · 26/02/2019 10:55

I knew it would be difficult and I also guessed this government would be incompetent. I just don't get 'no dealers' who are still saying 'no deal,no problem!' I've seen some 'leave means leave' types saying on Twitter that they didn't even vote for a deal---- and some saying they all thought it'd be done and dusted in a couple of days! Surely before the referendum, anyone who wanted to find out would have discovered that anyone wanting to leave had to trigger article 50?? Then the leave date is 2 years from that. Plus how can anyone seriously think we can disintangle ourselves from 40 years of legislation in a couple of days? It was mentioned by the remain camp at the time (one of the reasons I voted remain) but predictably dismissed as project fear. I really don't think some of these people live in the real world! The mind boggles Hmm. They also say that because the economy didn't crash immediately (I'm pretty sure the pound fell though) that that's proof of Project Fear in action! How bad does it have to get for them to realise.

I'm not saying all leavers are like this but the hardline no dealers seem hell bent on destroying the country and for what!

BiglyBadgers · 26/02/2019 11:11

Farage has (according to the Guardian) been on Sky suggesting Leavers should boycott a 2nd referendum if the choice was between WA(TM) and Remain. He “would not campaign and would not vote”.

Is that a promise? Can we get it in the form of some sort of legally binding statement of intent. Wink

HesterThrale · 26/02/2019 11:13

Not only is Nigel saying he’d not vote in a second ref, but he’d go on holiday during the campaign. Hopefully a long one.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nigel-farage-on-sky-news-talks-peoples-vote-1-5906630

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 11:15

Not only is Nigel saying he’d not vote in a second ref, but he’d go on holiday during the campaign.

reverse ferret ? It might appear to some that he is ever so slowly backing away from the steaming turd on the table that is Brexit.

LarkDescending · 26/02/2019 11:17

I hear Moscow is nice in the spring.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 11:18

I hear Moscow is nice in the spring.

The swallows are late this year.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 11:19
67chevvyimpala · 26/02/2019 11:20

The geese fly at midnight

Quietrebel · 26/02/2019 11:41

The UK needs a time for quiet reflection and detox.

Yes but chaos is not conducive to any of that so, by all means let's take some time out- whilst we're still enjoying our current status within the EU.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 11:55

Yes, most people can reflect more productively if the haven't lost their job and if they aren't struggling to find their meds and usual foods.
If there isn't civil disorder and chaos all around them.

Meditation rooms are quiet and peaceful for a reason.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 12:01

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

Of the 2 shifts yesterday, PM ruling out no-deal Brexit is more significant than Corbyn backing 2nd ref

< because it looks like Corbyn wants May's WA vs his non-existent one, no Remain >
.......

John Rentoul Retweeted Steven Swinford@StevenSwinford

Here's what I'm hearing from Cabinet, which is still ongoing:

The PM has said there will be a three line whip on an amendable motion tomorrow that will commit to TWO votes on March 12th in the event that her deal fails

One will be on no deal, the other will on extending A50

< for how long ? >

BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 12:03

John Rentoul Retweeted Mike Gapes@MikeGapes

A little bird tells me that the Parliamentary Labour Party will not be whipping to support the Ban on Hezbollah today.

Labour MPs are being told it is a “free vote”.
So Corbyn and co won’t have to vote for it.

< NOT a good look >

BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 12:11

Yougov finds higher Tigger support than other pollsters
However, even their non-Tigger polls have Labour waaaay behind the Tories

Britain Electss@britainelects*

Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG):

CON: 36% (-2)
LAB: 23% (-3)
TIG: 18% (+4)
LDEM: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov
Fieldwork before today's announcement.
Chgs. w/ 19 Feb
......
David Herdsonn@DavidHerdson*

The non-TIG-included YouGov polls still has a substantial drop in Lab support, to 30%, which is their worst this parliament by some 3%.

CON^ 41% (n/c)^
LAB 30% (-3)^^
LDEM 10% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (+1)
Grn 4% (n/c)
SNP/PC 5% (n/c)
Brexit 2% (new)

NoWordForFluffy · 26/02/2019 12:15

Thanks for calling me stupid, Bellini. It was a partly rhetorical question and a basic wondering at our competence. I don't actually appreciate being called stupid, believe it or not.

ChakiraChakra · 26/02/2019 12:18

I always enjoy reading Westminstenders threads, (if "enjoy" is the right word) but rarely comment on them. Breaking silence to give thanks to Red et al!

NoWordForFluffy · 26/02/2019 12:24

Oh, and even killing and murdering takes a degree of competence and organisation. I doubt we'd even manage now, even if it were so 'simple' as killing people, given our current government.

TalkinPeece · 26/02/2019 12:35

There was a pro Brexit thread on AIBU that I killed by pointing out that lorry drivers will choose to be on the continent for the end of March not the M20

and the MP deselection thread has been quelled by people telling Surfer that she won and should be proud of what is happening as its what she voted for

both tactics that are work sticking with

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 12:35

{ I doubt we'd even manage now, even if it were so 'simple' as killing people, given our current government.}
It's a song by Roberta Flack IIC. 'Killing me softly with your austerity'.
From 1973.

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