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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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BiglyBadgers · 26/02/2019 09:11

I knew it would be difficult and complicated. What I didn't realise was just how damn incompetent our government would be. It really didn't need to be this bad.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 09:18

I knew it would be difficult and complicated. What I didn't realise was just how damn incompetent our government would be. It really didn't need to be this bad.

If this government were a man, MN would be screaming that it was deliberately making a fist of Brexit so as to never be asked to do it again ....

Quietrebel · 26/02/2019 09:33

Ah yes, the Two Left Hands strategy! Infuriating for anyone who's been faced with it.

NoWordForFluffy · 26/02/2019 09:35

I knew it would be difficult and complicated. What I didn't realise was just how damn incompetent our government would be. It really didn't need to be this bad.

If this government were a man, MN would be screaming that it was deliberately making a fist of Brexit so as to never be asked to do it again

Exactly this!

The incompetence has been staggeringly mind-blowing.

prettybird · 26/02/2019 09:37

Oi - nothing wrong with lefties! Wink

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 09:40

The incompetence has been staggeringly mind-blowing.

Apparently, when the British took over Hong Kong, one of the things which caused the Chinese to defer to them was because the buildings were so jarring to the Chinese sense of Feng Shui they became convinced the British were actually advanced experts in the subject. The reasoning being nobody could get it so wrong by accident ....

TheElementsSong · 26/02/2019 09:42

I knew it would be difficult and complicated. What I didn't realise was just how damn incompetent our government would be. It really didn't need to be this bad.

Yes, this!

NoWordForFluffy · 26/02/2019 09:42

It would appear that incompetence has been endemic through history. How the hell did we build an Empire?!

Peregrina · 26/02/2019 10:02

Risky tactic if deal is rejected: implies EU27 are happy with holding EP elections in UK which will almost certainly be a quasi referendum with leave supporters claiming that democracy is being betrayed

Why? They will be at perfect liberty to vote in those elections. If Farage and his sorry crowd get returned then we will have a clue that Brexit is still the will of the people. If they get kicked out, and Remainers get elected we will know the other way.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 10:03

{Brexiteers are very quiet now. I mean eerily quiet,}
Maybe Mrs Tweedie had diversified?
There have been a lot of mentions of 'Fray Bentos'* pies in stockpiling/forward purchasing threads.

*other meat type substances in tins are available.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 10:04

How the hell did we build an Empire?!

By not setting out to build an Empire, strangely enough ...

Something has definitely changed in the past 48 hours. A lot of toys leaving prams, but more noticeably a lot more people weighing in, rather than the "WE WON GET OVER IT" postings of the past two years.

Latest gem I've seen is that Remainers should have reached out to the poor ickle Leavers to form a consensus approach to Brexit. As you might imagine, the phrase "arse on a plate" describes the response.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 10:06

prettybird
You outed yourself/partner on 14th!
It's OK, I am not stalking you but unusual things sometimes get my attention, but often not the 'bleedin obvious'!

Peregrina · 26/02/2019 10:07

Leavers and remainers say they had no idea how difficult leaving would be: none of us did.

Given that Greenland, with one major industry, a population of 50,000, negotiating with ten EEC members, one of which was the Kingdom of Denmark to which it still belonged, took three years, why on earth did Leavers think that the UK leaving would be otherwise? This is before you add in the prospect of a land border and a renewed civil war in NI.
Give over, as my Granny used to say.

Remainers did think it would be difficult - as already said, we have had Project Fear thrown at us.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 10:09

'They told them that the job couldn't be done.
So they went to tackle the job that couldn't be done.
And couldn't do it.'

Peregrina · 26/02/2019 10:09

Oh pity - the Brexit has been cancelled thread has been pulled! Pity, it was the one time surferjet said something I half agreed with.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 10:11

Leavers and remainers say they had no idea how difficult leaving would be: none of us did.

I rarely ask favours of posters - rough and tumble of debate and all - but in this case, can people not repost that line. I really cannot describe the red mist that descends when I read it. It's possibly the most untrue statement in English with as few words.

I mean it. I may have to find a puppy to punch Grin

bellinisurge · 26/02/2019 10:12

"How the hell did we build an Empire?!"
Apart from it being a stupid question, more guns, more soldiers, more ships. That generally swung it.

Peregrina · 26/02/2019 10:12

I suppose Brexit could have been done,if a) they had been able to agree what sort of Brexit they wanted, and b) set up a realistic timescale which would have been something like 10 years.

At least with the Millenium bug we a) knew exactly what we were looking for i.e. hard coded dates and b) we threw time and money at the job, and c) there was a definite end point.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 10:14

{ If Farage and his sorry crowd get returned then we will have a clue that Brexit is still the will of the people. If they get kicked out, and Remainers get elected we will know the other way.}

Unfortunately because the degree of 'external influence and funding' hasn't been established yet, the 'Project Fear' round 3 (or is it 4) would be yelled from the rooftops, as well as the fact that the disruption caused by 'prepping' has apparently boosted the economy at least until March 29th so the real effects of departure have not been seen and NDAs are keeping much of the downsides quiet.

Peregrina · 26/02/2019 10:15

I think the how did we build an Empire quite a good one. But it also applies to other peoples and times. What made the Vikings such a force in there time? How did the Spaniards build such a huge Empire initially? It's easier to explain how they kept it - money from the huge mineral wealth, especially gold.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 10:24

{I suppose Brexit could have been done,if a) they had been able to agree what sort of Brexit they wanted, and b) set up a realistic timescale which would have been something like 10 years.}

Indeed, I have always maintained that if the 'so called' UK negotiators (DD) had gone to Brussels with a plan saying this is what we would like to do, it's a big project we would like assistance' rather than a totally adversarial approach it could have been done.
From the word go it has been 'UK against the EU' whereas in many ways the UK IS the EU. Apart from when the UK leaves the 'deals' won't be as good as EU members get there was a policy of cooperation.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 26/02/2019 10:29

What time are we expecting the statement to the commons?

LarkDescending · 26/02/2019 10:29

Farage has (according to the Guardian) been on Sky suggesting Leavers should boycott a 2nd referendum if the choice was between WA(TM) and Remain. He “would not campaign and would not vote”.

DGRossetti · 26/02/2019 10:30

Indeed, I have always maintained that if the 'so called' UK negotiators (DD) had gone to Brussels with a plan saying this is what we would like to do, it's a big project we would like assistance' rather than a totally adversarial approach it could have been done.

There are so many ways it could have been done differently. The problem is that to start having that discussion now rather suggests that the time to have made that decision has now passed. I think it's the sense of an admission of that which has spiced up debate now.

LarkDescending · 26/02/2019 10:31

Statement due “after 12.30pm” again according to the Guardian.