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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 26/02/2019 12:44

www.businessinsider.com/brexit-michael-gove-ministers-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-no-deal-chaos-2019-2

I've entered hysterical laughter territory.
We can't export to the EU because we don't have the right sort of pallets.

TokyoSushi · 26/02/2019 12:45

Very interesting in the HoC just now.

TokyoSushi · 26/02/2019 12:49

She's really holding a gun to their heads now to vote for her deal I think. Not even a thinly veiled threat that she doesn't want to extend, if we do its only until the end of June, and then the cliff edge will be massive.

EweSurname · 26/02/2019 12:52

Krishnan Guru-Murthy
@krishgm
May now - at the last minute - offers MPs a vote against No Deal. Imagine how much money, stress, work and argument we could have saved if she’d done that in the first place.

EweSurname · 26/02/2019 12:56

Beth Rigby
@BethRigby
This really is a big shift. May has finally played her cards and sided with the Europhile wing of her party
Vote for her deal (March 12)
Vote for no-deal (March 13)
Vote for delay (March 14)
Only yesterday she refused to even acknowledge there might have to be a delay to Brexit.

Namechangedforgoodreason · 26/02/2019 12:57

Question. So if if the current WA is voted down. And taking no deal away is voted for. But the extension is voted against as it's only 3 months. Then what?

No WA
No no deal
No extension

Hhmmmmm

TatianaLarina · 26/02/2019 12:59

This really is a big shift. May has finally played her cards and sided with the Europhile wing of her party

Translated as: panicked and volte face in the face of revolt.

Tanith · 26/02/2019 13:01

I see they’ve thrown Stephen Yaxley-Lemon off Facebook and Instagram:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/26/tommy-robinson-banned-from-facebook-and-instagram

TokyoSushi · 26/02/2019 13:07

What happens if they vote against no the deal, no deal, and the extension?! What then?!

TokyoSushi · 26/02/2019 13:07

**against the deal, no deal and the extension?! I wouldn't put it past them!

borntobequiet · 26/02/2019 13:17

The Business Insider pallet link above is hilarious (and unsurprising). It would have made an excellent Yes Minister episode.
There's a link off it saying that the Lib Dems are losing financial support to TIG.
www.businessinsider.com/liberal-democrat-donors-switch-anti-brexit-independent-group-mps-2019-2?r=US&IR=T
I sincerely hope that TIG avoids any formal links with the LDs and their vile identity (LGBT but principally T) politics.
I got a nice email from TIG (terribly badly formatted though) saying they've had tens of thousands express support, so I expect the cash is rolling in.

prettybird · 26/02/2019 13:28

JRM on Sky News reminds me of a new expression I invented at the weekend and am going to claim copyright for:

He is never going to take actual responsibility as he prefers to sneer from the snidelines Grin

MadAboutWands · 26/02/2019 13:43

Vote for her deal (March 12)
Vote for no-deal (March 13)
Vote for delay (March 14)

I dint understand that one.
Surely the vote for No Deal should be first? Because how can you vote against NoDeal but also against the WA?? There is no other option atm Confused

yolofish · 26/02/2019 13:44

I suppose mad that the logical answer to that is that when the HoC have voted against all of them we revoke? I wish...

BigChocFrenzy · 26/02/2019 13:45

kitten If they've genuinely only discovered about the pallets recently, then there is no excuse:

I knew about this since 2017 - because I read R North's blog which has mentioned this pallet issue several times !

MadAboutWands · 26/02/2019 13:45

I also though there had already been a vote against No Deal and that the message had been very clear. It has to be off the table.

So why another vote??
I’m getting very confused nowdays Confused

SonEtLumiere · 26/02/2019 13:51

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

MadAboutWands · 26/02/2019 13:52

@faisalislam
Industry now has to plan for a double cliff edge. Eg car plants that are shutting down for period of a week to a month in April, possibly pointlessly, because they were told by Govt to prepare for No Deal next month. Now have to do it again potentially in July.

Now that is also an issue... Industries of all types won’t like to have to plan for TWO possible periods of instability.
In an era where margins can be affected by very small things, this is going to cost a hell of a lot to those companies...

OlennasWimple · 26/02/2019 13:53

I know a number of natural Leavers who voted for remain, precisely because they appreciated how complex the leaving process would be (and had a lack of confidence in both the government and opposition to deliver it with any sense of competence)

How dare people tar everyone with the same brush of stupidity as themselves

Yogurty · 26/02/2019 13:54

I have a question.

John Whittingdale has just said in the HoC that the EU often makes a deal at the last minute. I've heard quite a few Brexity people say this.

Is it true? Does anyone know any specific examples of that happening and, if so, is it more/less likely to happen?

I think I should probably be able to Google this but have no idea what I'd search for.

TokyoSushi · 26/02/2019 13:58

Yes that's very true @MadAboutWands are businesses now to scrap the plans that they had for April and shift them to July?!

FishesaPlenty · 26/02/2019 14:04

The issue with pallets was flagged up last summer. DEFRA were of the opinion that there are sufficient heat-treatment facilities.

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 14:05

Yogurty
This is supposedly true for MEMBERS of the EU, but the UK is leaving so it gets the 'Third country' non member treatment, like would be faced by the USA/Russia/China etc.
If may be 'kid gloves' at the moment as the UK is strictly a member until 20 March. 30 March onwards could see very definite hardening of stance.

bellabelly · 26/02/2019 14:06

Great reply to that twattish Giles Fraser article here... unherd.com/2019/02/how-freedom-of-movement-freed-me-to-care/?=sideshare

1tisILeClerc · 26/02/2019 14:07

That should be 29 March obviously, or if some news can be believed, a sliding scale of alternative dates.